Friday, February 24, 2017

Feb 24 blog crop size, rains and Carnival

It now looks like the Brazil soy crop is at least 104/105 mmt.

What looked like the ceiling is now a floor.

Rain makes grain.

I do feel that the numbers coming out this week above 107 mmt
and talk of a 110 mmt are getting close to irrational exhuberance.

The NE and RGDS benefitted much from the recent rains.

I still must caution that planted area of soy could be a late
season surprise that could pull the final production tally down a bit.

We are working with a + 500,000 ha YoY increase in planted area.
That may very well be true.

But, depending on the final tally of 1st crop corn production and
planted area, we could drop soy area down a tad.

Also, Parana, MGDS, Goias, MT, MG, and SP all have a ban on 2nd crop
planted area of soybeans. In years past, this has been as much as 400,000 ha
nationally. This has helped push the production higher.
RGDS still has 2nd crop soy as it is planted after wheat.
But, it still is only the one crop of soy per year. It just gets planted
into January and acts like a 2nd crop.

Whatever the final tally, Brazil has record soy crop hands down.

Increased fertilizer usage, more use of Intacta genetics, and precision
ag combined with normal to even above normal rainfall helped Brazil
rebound from last year´s set back.

Mato Grosso has a phenomenal soy crop. Recent rainy weather has caused some
losses to accrue. A few hundred thousand tons have been been lost due to seed burn,
mold, and sprouting issues. I am not sure if we subtract from 31 mmt or maybe at one time
32 mmt. 9.3 M ha X 3.5 tons/ha =  32 mmt+.
It seems like everyone had at least 60 sacs per ha soy.

Transport is the big issue. Mud - mud and more mud. Beans are trying to go north
but hundreds of trucks are stranded in Para state. It was forecast that 9 million tons
could have been shipped north to Amazon this year for both soy and corn.
With conditions like this and a return to normal rainfall patterns, this is now in question.

The plus side of the drought last year was cheap freight and good road conditions.
Today we have the flip side.

This means more grain will likely be routed to Santos and Paranagua.

Carnival the next few days in Brazil. In March, Brazil will come back to life.

We have talk of opening up BR land to foreigners again. Let us see what the details
will be. I have been waiting for this day since August 2010. This is when they slammed
the brakes on foreign investment and the start of Brazil´s demise into political and economic
no man´s land. It is time for a new cycle to begin.

If the government would not have interrupted things back in 2010, we would not
be dealing with the logistical questions yet today as per roads and railroads.
(At least to a lesser extent than we see today)

The global powers are trying to find out a workable solution to the new world
we find ourselves in. China cannot get caught with her pants off as per protein needs
over the next decade. Brazil does not want to give up national sovereignty to other
country´s that want to suck her dry and call her dusty. Meanwhile, USA is pounding
the nationalistic drum so the whole world can hear it. Listen to ME !!!!!!

Bottom line to all of this is that China is working on a 50 year plan.
USA is looking 3 to 6 months ahead.
Brazil does not have plan.

How do we get these three capital and food producing powerhouses on the
same page so none of them feel taken advantage of?

China wants to help with BR infrastructure. Let them.
Let BR farmers produce the grain that they do so well.
Let China help ship it via rail and port systems.
Let USA supply cheap capital and precision ag products so we can
produce more with less area and, in theory, it will be a win win win for
everyone and the environment also.

Happy Carnival

Kory






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  19. Ini luar biasa saat saya mengira semua telah selesai dengan saya Ibu Iskandar datang untuk menyelamatkan saya. Saya sangat berhutang sejauh orang-orang yang saya pinjam uang dari geng melawan saya dan kemudian membuat saya ditangkap sebagai akibat dari hutang saya. ditahan selama berbulan-bulan maka masa rahmat diberikan kepada saya saat saya dipulangkan dan dibebaskan untuk pergi dan mencari uang untuk membayar semua hutang yang saya terima sehingga saya diberitahu bahwa ada beberapa kreditur sah online sehingga saya harus mencari Karena melalui blog saya berualang kali tertipu tapi ketika saya menemukan Ibu Iskandar CEO ISKANDAR LESTARI LOAN FIRM, Tuhan mengarahkAan saya ke iklannya melalui blog karena daya tarik saya terhadapnya adalah benar-benar mukjizat mungkin karena Tuhan telah melihat bahwa saya memiliki banyak menderita karena itulah dia mengarahkan saya kepadanya. Jadi saya menerapkannya dengan antusias setelah beberapa jam pinjaman saya disetujui oleh Dewan dan dalam dua hari saya dikreditkan dengana jumlah pasti yang saya berikaan untuk semua ini tanpa jaminan tambahan Kredit Tanpa Agunan (KTA) sama seperti saya berbicara dengan Anda sekarang saya telah dapat menghapus semua hutang saya dan sekarang saya memiliki supermarket sendiri, saya tidak memerlukan bantuan orang lain sebelum saya memberi makan atau mengambil keuangan apa pun keputusan saya tidak punya urusan dengan Polisi lagi saya sekarang adalah wanita merdeka. Anda ingin mengalami kemandirian finansial seperti saya silahkan hubungi Ibu melalui BBM-nya: {D8980E0B} atau melalui email perusahaan: (iskandalestari.kreditpersatuan@gmail.com) Anda tidak dapat memperdebatkan fakta bahwa di dunia kesulitan ini Anda memerlukan seseorang untuk membantu Anda mengatasi gejolak keuangan dalam hidup Anda dengan satu atau lain cara, jadi saya memberi Anda mandat untuk mencoba dan menghubungi Ibu Iskandar di alamat di atas sehingga bisa mengatasi kemerosotan keuangan dalam hidup Anda. Anda bisa menghubungi saya melalui email berikut: (anggaannisa1979@gmail.com)) selalu bersikap positif dengan Ibu Iskandar dia akan melihat Anda melalui semua tantangan finansial Anda dan kemudian memberi Anda sebuah tampilan baru finansial.

    Detail Kontak Penuh:

    Perusahaan: ISKANDAR LESTARI LOAN FIRM (ISKANDAR LENDERS)
    Email: {iskandalestari.kreditpersatuan@gmail.com}
    BBM INVITES: {D8980E0B}
                           : {4424AA}
    Alamat Facebook: {www.facebook.com/iskandar.lesteri.7}
    Website: {iskandarlestari.wordpress.com}

               TESTIMONI OLEH
    Penerima Manfaat: Angga Annisa
       Email: {anggaannisa1979@gmail.com}

    ReplyDelete
  20. COLLINS GUZMAN FUNDINGS

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  21. kesaksian nyata dan kabar baik !!!

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  23. Selamat siang pak / nyonya

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  24. Hello Everybody,
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  25. Anda dipersilakan untuk "AULIA CONSULT" kami adalah perusahaan pinjaman baru yang didukung oleh BANK DUNIA yang didirikan untuk membantu masyarakat Indonesia dalam kebutuhan bantuan di dunia, melalui bantuan keuangan. karena tingginya aktivitas penipuan yang terjadi di Indonesia, Jadi Jika Anda memerlukan dana untuk memulai bisnis Anda sendiri, atau Anda meminta hipotek untuk meminta pinjaman Anda atau membayar tagihan Anda, mulailah perdagangan yang baik, atau Anda dapat menemukan uang untuk mendapatkan modal hipotek dari bank lokal, kami adalah perusahaan yang menyediakan pinjaman tidak berguna untuk individu yang tertarik dan serius, perusahaan, badan hukum dan orang awam dengan tingkat keuntungan 2%.

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  26. Saya Ismaya George W.
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    Saya menyambut Anda dari luar negeri, saat ini saya adalah CEO dari perusahaan georgewalker. Saya menggunakan media hebat ini untuk membagikan kesaksian saya yang mengubah hidup melalui Asia dan sekitarnya.
    Saya tahu betul bahwa kebanyakan dari kita telah mendengar ini beberapa kali, tetapi saya hanya ingin meyakinkan Anda bahwa kasus saya berbeda, yang merupakan alasan mengapa saya terus membagikan kesaksian ini di seluruh dunia, sampai pada satu titik di kehidupan. bahwa tidak ada yang bekerja sama sekali dan seolah-olah hidup saya dijeda, kehilangan pekerjaan saya setiap hal menjadi sangat sulit dikombinasikan dengan masalah keluarga itu tidak lucu sama sekali pada satu titik saya adalah tentang bunuh diri tetapi suara kecil berkata kepada saya dan Saya mengutip suara itu, "Mengapa kamu menjadi bodoh ketika kamu memiliki semua yang kamu butuhkan untuk menjadi sukses di tanganmu", itulah yang dikatakan oleh suara itu dengan segera. Aku memeriksa tanganku. Aku tidak memiliki apa pun di tanganku kecuali telepon dan racun saya tentang minum, kemudian saya duduk dan mulai berpikir tentang apa kata suara itu, itulah bagaimana saya mendapat cita-cita GEORGEWALkER PERUSAHAAN.

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    Saya meminta Anda semua untuk menghubungi Ibu jika Anda memerlukan pinjaman dalam bentuk apa pun melalui Email
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    WHATSAPP: +1 (678) 881-842

    JUGA HUBUNGI SAYA MELALUI
    george.ceowalker@gmail.com. UNTUK INFORMASI LEBIH LANJUT, SEMOGA BERHASIL.

    ReplyDelete
  27. CAPITAL LOANS LLC
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    ReplyDelete
  28. How I already got an Xmas loan

    My name is Elizabeth Gindi residing in Brooklyn, I am thankful to Jennard Investments Limited for granting me an Xmas loan on the 27th of November 2019 at 3% interest rate. This thanksgiving and forthcoming Xmas wouldn't have been fun for me and my family if not for Mr Richard James Dyson, who help me and made it fun by granting me a loan on their Xmas loan scheme. I also have been able to expand my business by putting in part of the money I got as loan on it. This message might be of importance to those seeking a genuine loan for Xmas or business purpose. I advise you contact this company via contact number: +1(484)292-4513 & email: jennardinvestmentslimited@outlook.com. Thank you...

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  29. How I already got an Xmas loan

    My name is Elizabeth Gindi residing in Brooklyn, I am thankful to Jennard Investments Limited for granting me an Xmas loan at 3% interest rate. This Xmas wouldn't have been fun for me and my family if not for Mr Richard James Dyson, who help me and made it fun by granting me a loan on their Xmas loan scheme. I also have been able to expand my business by putting in part of the money I got as loan on it. This message might be of importance to those seeking a genuine loan for Xmas and other purpose. I advise you contact this company via contact number: +1(484)292-4513 & email: jennardinvestmentslimited@outlook.com. Thank you.

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  30. How I already got an Xmas loan

    My name is Elizabeth Gindi residing in Brooklyn, I am thankful to Jennard Investments Limited for granting me an Xmas loan at 3% interest rate. This Xmas wouldn't have been fun for me and my family if not for Mr Richard James Dyson, who help me and made it fun by granting me a loan on their Xmas loan scheme. I also have been able to expand my business by putting in part of the money I got as loan on it. This message might be of importance to those seeking a genuine loan for Xmas and other purpose. I advise you contact this company via contact number: +1(484)292-4513 & email: jennardinvestmentslimited@outlook.com. Thank you...

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  31. Nama saya Mrs. Effie Kustiyo email effiekustiyo@gmail.com dari jl panji 22 rt 5/4, malang, Indonesia. Saya adalah kesaksian sejati RIKA ANDERSON LOAN COMPANY sebagai salah satu orang paling bahagia di Indonesia saat ini dan saya mengatakan pada diri sendiri bahwa pemberi pinjaman yang menyelamatkan keluarga saya dari situasi buruk kami, saya akan memberi tahu namanya kepada dunia dan saya sangat senang mengatakannya bahwa keluarga saya kembali dan bahagia selamanya karena saya mendapat pinjaman sebesar Rp85.000.000 untuk memulai hidup saya karena saya adalah seorang ibu dengan 2 anak dan semuanya bergantung pada saya.
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  34. How I got my business loan

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