Sunday, September 7, 2014

Full speed ahead- into the black hole

The whole Brazil soybean expansion talk for the 2015 crop cycle reminds
me of an episode of Star Trek.

A scene where Captain Kirk is flying by the seat of his pants and
Spock is in the corner with a raised eyebrow saying that this action
is "highly unadvisable Captain."

Captain Kirk: "What is that up ahead?"
Spock: " It is a black hole Captain" (anecdotal reference to Brazil soybean expansion)
Captain Kirk: "Can we fly through it?"
Spock: " That would be highly unadvisable Captain."
Captain Kirk: "Scotty, can you give me warp 9?" (anecdotal reference to Brazil´s rate of expansion)
Scotty: " I can for a bit, but she likely come out the other side in pieces."
Captain Kirk: " Sulu, Warp 9 straight through middle."
Sulu: "Aye, Aye Captain"
Bones: "Are you bloody insane Jim? You gonna kill us all"
Spock: " Humans, highly illogical."

:Scene ends:

I sent out my September part II newsletter Saturday to subscribers.

I was trying to think of a colorful anecdotal reference to help describe the current situation
in Brazil with regards to soybean expansion.

Last night, I thought of an old Star Trek scene where Kirk risks everyone´s life,
"just because he can" type feeling.

The global soybean stocks will soon be back into balance and even increasing in size.
We have read many forecasts about how much Brazil will expand for the 2015 crop cycle.
The Ag minister is "guaranteeing 200 million tons" (soy,corn, rice, wheat, cotton seeds)
Lanworth says Brazil soy crop at 98 million tons  ???
Many reputable analysts are expecting a 1.5 milllion hectare soybean area surge-
on top of last years 2 million hectare surge.
USA has recently surged 8 million acres
Future soybean prices are telling us all to tap the brakes
But when I see and hear of many new areas that have been prepped in Mato
Grosso and elsewhere for 2015 soybeans, I feel like we are all headed into
a black hole and at very high velocity and no one is sounding the alarm bell
as to what it will look like on the other side.

Several years of 14,16, and even a glimpse of 18 dollar soybeans in Chicago
has been like a large dose of heroin to a farmer´s soybean glands.

Don´t worry, it will be ok, plant a little more..........  take another hit dude!!!!!

I am beginning to feel like Brazil is the starship Enterprise and if we go fast
enough through the black hole, it will be OK.

China will be there to pick up the pieces......

But what if the Chinese are really "Klingons" on the other side??!!!!!

If there was ever a year to hope for a drought somewhere, it is this one.
We need to whack 10 million tons off the South America production
potential, or look out below.

All I see are adequate to above normal rainfalls of late in Brazil and
Argentina. It is not looking "droughty" by any means.

Buckle up, we are going for a ride!!!!!