Tuesday, July 3, 2018

July 3 blog update

Much has happened since last blog update.

Two  dollars lower in Chicago.

Trucker freight rates are still in dispute

Freight rates are circa 50% higher.

Dollar:Real is trading 3.90:1

Brazil has won 3 games in World Cup

Fertilizer is stranded at Paranagua port- no trucks will come get it

Chinese are aggressive bidders for soybeans

Even with soy price correction and higher freight rates,
soybean prices in Mato Grosso are almost back to late
May prices when CME was US$10.50/bushel

Soybean premiums at port today are US$ 2.20.bushel over
CME with an upward bias  -basis August

Clickbait in todays BR media that Dollar:Real will trade 5.50:1
in 2019 if wrong President is elected- Bank of America projection

Brazil will expand 1 to 1.5 million hectares for 2019

Corn harvest is progressing

Corn crop size for national total looks to be 82 mmt
down from last year's 97 mmt

I expect mega hectares of corn to be planted in 2019

Brazil foods is selling off some assets

July is vacation month for Brasilians

World Cup will occupy everyones time

Much talk of more railroads since trucker strike- need to
speed up bidding process and construction pace

No reason at this time not to expect mega soy production
out of Brazil, ARG, and Paraguay in 2019

What do I expect for the next 90 days?


Bom Jogos para todos
Bom Bar-be-que para todos

Enjoy the show


keywords: soy, corn, BR elections, FX, world cup, expansion, railroads