Tuesday, May 9, 2017

Mato Grosso corn 2017- a very big deal

IMEA updated their Mato Grosso 2nd crop corn estimate to
28 million tons. This is 1.12 Billion bushels of corn.

They used a record area of 4.7 million hectares and a near
record yield of 100 sacs/ha.

We have a good chance of rain the 3rd week of May for
Mato Grosso. This is what tops off the yields.
It helps the later planted corn fill and in the end all the
corn has a uniform yield throughout the state.

I think back to 7 to 8 years ago and we were dealing
with a Mato Grosso corn crop of 6 to 8 million tons per year
depending on rainfall. We have come a long way.

Corn prices in Sorriso for new crop are trading at R$ 14.00/sac.
This is about US$ 1.90/bushel.

If Parana, MGDS, and Goias can finish off their corn crops
without a June frost to nip yields, I think we will hear of corn
trading R$ 12/sac by August in Mato Grosso. There will
simply be too much in the country.
R$ 12= US$ 1.60/bushel.

Conab is stepping in with weekly auctions and minimum
pricing offers. The problem is that there is not enough funding
to cover all the tons that are potentially out there and below the
minimum price.

Two years ago, the FX at 4:1 saved the day and the export
market sucked up the excess quickly. This year, with FX at
3.20:1 and plentiful global stocks of corn, the situation
is more complicated.

The Ribeirao Preto ag show was a huge success.
Everyone is very happy with the results there this year.

Silage is being made in Mato Grosso for those with cattle feedlots.
I expect some wet corn to be harvested in near future.
Spot corn prices will warrant taking it wet and drying it.
But that will quickly come to an end as market saturates.

Silo bags will be a common site in MT this season.

There will be mountains of corn piled everywhere in the
coming months. Please take it will be the mantra.


keywords: Mato Grosso corn, Mato Grosso corn prices