Saturday, October 4, 2014

Dollar, elections, weather

Sunday is the big day. Elections
The latest polls show President Dilma winning in a runoff on Oct 26th.

When I see the amount of contra Dilma propaganda on Facebook, on car bumper
stickers, and comments from friends, I wonder who is voting for her? No one
admits they will and yet she is the leader?

The lower classes and population centers must love her? Keep things the same.

It made me chuckle this week when she was asked about corruption again.
Her response, " I believe that there is corruption in all parts of the world".
I guess that makes it OK??? Normal operating procedure.

The dollar rallied to 2.52 Friday before selling off to 2.46 on the close.
The last three weeks a lot of volatility.

From my perspective 2.50:1 is about right. It is the max exchange rate
that investors and markets allow a country to have and yet remain viable.
We start talking 3:1, everyone knows you eat Bananas for breakfast.
Or at the very least, you are coo-coo for cocoa puffs.

Weather has been erratic. Heavy rains in Southern Brazil. Foz do Iguacu
is running at full force.

The Northeast is running behind. And the forecast that it is to remain below normal rainfall
for the next couple weeks. Coffee, Cane, and water reservoirs are of concern.

I will update clients Sunday night or Monday morning as per election results.

Conab will be out Thursday Oct 9th with their first 2015 crop size forecast.
I will send out special report.

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