Tuesday, January 30, 2018

Feb 1 update and Amazon rains

Hello all,

Happy New Year

Carnival is early this year. Feb 9th-14th
It always rains during Carnival.

The Brazil soy crop has been getting bigger in December and January.
Some say 114 mmt. It very well could be.
Given the forecast for the next 2 weeks, I will say that the crop has
plateaued here for now. If things get out of whack weather wise in
the coming weeks, we may even start to hear of small decreases in crop size.
Lack of sun, more disease, moldy beans, harvest loss in general.
Usually loses from too much rain are small compared to drought losses
which are now occuring in ARG.

I remember back to the early 2000's being out in Mato Grosso at the end
of January and early February. These are called the Amazon rains.
It can rain every day all day and all night for two weeks straight.

I remember when Sorriso area got 24 inches in two weeks. I believe
it was 2005.

Back in the 2000's MT was planting 5 million ha of soybeans and
maybe 1 million ha of 2nd corn.

Today we are at 9.5 M ha of soy and last year was 4.7 M ha of 2nd crop

Back in the 2000's everyone had smaller 6 row planters and small
front- wheel assist tractors pulling them. They could float on water.

Today we have bigger toys.  30 and 45 row planters with 370 - 500
hp tractors hooked to them. These are no-till conditions.
Will an Amazon rain event have a negative impact on planting pace?
JD 680 combines that weigh 40,000 lbs with 10 ton more in the
hopper a harvest issue later this month? We need to float this stuff.

The forecast is for 5-10-15 to maybe 20 inches in spots.

A rain in the morning and if the sun comes out, they can be harvesting
after lunch time. The beans might be 25-30% moisture, but they can go.

By 5 pm the beans are 17-18% again and rolling at full speed.

The Cerrado soils can take a lot of water- to a point.
The Tropical sun drys things out quickly.

But, the Amazon rains scares the bejesus out of the farmers out there
that have a lot of ground to cover and dirt roads to get production out.

The roads are much better than 2005. Many thousands of kilometers of
asfault have been installed.

I remember when BR 163 was washed out at 1 or 2 bridges at different times
going south. My van had to take a detour around through several farms, be pulled
by tractors for a distance and over a wood bridge being over flowed by water that
was a tributary of the main river that was flooding BR 163.
Crocodile Dundee mixed with a little Mission Impossible.

Thank you for all the annual renewals at the beginning of the year.
Many of you have been with me since the beginning in 2005.
13+ years now

I am positive to soy prices going forward.
All of this has been outlined in the newsletters since Oct.

I think Sept 12 low and Jan 12th low are long term lows.

I will try and update more in the future.



keywords: Mato Grosso rains, planting progress, machinery size, soy prices