Thursday, December 3, 2015

December 3rd update

I will be back in office Sunday.

What I have noticed watching the satellite cloud loops is that
in the early evening there is a big poof in cloud development.
We see Red's in various spots in Brazil.

In Parana state this can mean 3-4 inches of rain.

The same Red in Goias and Mato Grosso means nothing.

We have thunder, some rumble, lightning, and maybe a few drops.

The GFS model is showing rain for Mato Grosso for mid- December.

Another forecast says no way- High and dry all the way into January.

Norwegian says UFFDA!!!!

Let us take this a day at at time.

Each day these soybeans need more and more water.

My soybean worry index is at "6".

By December 15th, it will likely be "7".

The vibe I get from producers is that:
It will rain, don't worry........

I ask myself what if it does not?

Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul are in great shape.
Some could say too wet.
Parana is on deck for 18 million tons of soy.
MGDS is on deck for 7 mmt.
(Almost in the bag)
Harvest in early January for them)

So 25 mmt of Brazil's 100 mmt are safe as per adequate moisture.

The other 70-75 mmt is still up for grabs and will be very late- historically speaking.

Mato Grosso was on deck to produce 29 mmt.
Not any more.
The problem is, as of today, we do not know what "Factor" to plug in for this
very historic weather event we are in. We simply do not have data to compare this too.

Western Cordoba in Argentina is floating in water.

Impeachment proceedings are starting in Brazil for her President.

Does this mean much in the near term?

Depending on votes and timing of various holidays and assuming an impeachment
vote in the "House" in 2016 sometime, that means Dilma steps down for up to
180 days while Senate hashes things over.

I fear that 2016 could be another "Zombie year" Thriller 2.0
A country without direction and trying to run out the clock.