22 years in Brazil

22 Years in Brazil- I came from the end of the world. I come from a small town in Northwest, Minnesota. I come from a humble background of rocks, swamp, livestock and crops. Soybeans had just been introduced to my area when I was reading about the massive expansion in Brazil 25 years ago. My home area was heavily influenced by CRP(Conservation Reserve Program), crop insurance, government payments and obedience of wetland and sod buster laws. In essence, farmers were all government employees. No one dared to deviate from the scripted outlines of various farm programs of the 80s and 90s. I felt restricted, boxed in, and unable to break free from the self imposed bondage that, at the time, seemed completely normal. 

I had first visited southern Brazil and Argentina in 1993. At the time, I was more impressed with Argentina than Brazil.

My story’s beginning starts back in 2000. As I look back at all of the new friends, colleagues, confidants, and mentors that appeared over 20 years, one starts to believe in the phrase: “When the student is ready, the teacher will appear.”  If it were not for several new friends and mentors that appeared at the correct time over many years, I simply would not have made it in Brazil. The culture, economy, foreign exchange, and language barrier would have eaten me alive. 

Brazil is not for beginners. I was a beginner. I knew I needed to check my Ego at customs. I am a guest in Brazil. It is not up to me to change Brazil. It was up to me to adapt to Brazil and “jeitinho brasileiro”, “Brazilian way” refers to the improvised and often informal approach with which Brazilians resolve problematic situations. This Brazilian way of being is seen as both negative and positive, depending on the situation in which it is applied.

For a foreigner, I do not think this can be taught. One needs a moral compass in life. However, one needs to be able to turn it on and off. I was able to do that. I think most “gringos” tend to come with a fixed set of ideals and business models, and more often than not, they do not mix well. Think of oil and water. They are both in same cup, but each are at the extreme ends of the cup. One almost needs to think of yourself as biodiesel in Brazil. 5% bio is a bit light. 10% is about right and 15% is maybe too much? I use this analogy as a way to describe how deep you are allowed to enter the Brazilian culture. As a foreigner, you are welcome, but you are never 100% part of the family. If you are an insecure person, this can lead to tension, resentment, and depression. I think in order to survive Brazil, one needs to know who you are first. There are so many diversions in the country that without a stable compass, one will lose focus and lose sight of your Magnetic North Pole- so to speak. 

I was able to find solace with my wife and son. My son and his education in Brazil was the foundation for me to put my head down and keep plowing forward. Were there times I wanted to give up? Yes. It would have been easier to walk away than continue in Brazil. There were several times in business negotiations, health issues with my son, and dealing with trying to get paid in Brazil that made me wonder: “What the hell am I doing here?” 

Given that my son is now at Notre Dame University in USA studying to be a Doctor, the heartache and frustration was all worth it in the end. But, when you are in the shit, it is very very hard to see how this will all work out. 

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I got started farming in Minnesota clearing land and breaking up CRP from those who went broke in the 80s investing in trees, rocks and swamp in my home area during the previous ag boom in USA. I was a teenager and I was able to step in and clean up their messes. In the late 90’s, I was reading about the Brazil expansion and wanted to understand this better. Could I do in Brazil what I did in Minnesota on a small scale? 

Feb 2000

CASEIH had invited a few of their VIP clients for a tour of their combine and tractor plants in Illinois and Wisconsin. While on the plane, I was seated next to a South Dakota farmer who had just gotten back from Brazil. Needless to say, I was full of questions. I asked him who he went with? He said Dan Mahoney from Morris, MN. 

June 2000

I drive down to meet Dan. We were like two peas in a pod. We saw the world the same way. Dan’s Brazilian tour partner in Brazil was making his first trip to Mato Grosso in August. He made a video tape of their tour into the frontier of Mato Grosso. Today, soybean ground zero on the planet. 

When I saw this video of new land, trees on fire and massive expansion, I knew I needed to see this. 

I need to thank Dan for his countless hours of answering my novice questions about Brazil and his time interpreting for me on the phone after I met Maria some time later. 

January 2001

My cousin Mark and I join a dynamic group from USA on a tour of Mato Grosso. We were blown away at what we saw at the time. Soybeans are US$ 5 per bushel and these crazy bastards are clearing sections and townships of land to produce more. Meanwhile, in the USA, we were CRPing and Pre-vent planting to take land out of production because everything was unprofitable. How could these two world’s exist at the same time? 

I returned to Mato Grosso two more times in 2001. I was always a day late and a dollar short to do any deals. Land prices were doubling every few months.

From 2002 to 2005 is what I call my incubation period in Brazil. I really did not have any plan. I knew I wanted and needed to be in Brazil. I was not sure how this was going to work. 

I had met my future wife Maria in August 2001. With Dan’s help, we kept in touch. I would go down and visit her. I asked if she would like to help in Mato Grosso? She said yes and she was already packed and ready to go. She literally became my Brazilian Sacajawea. She had no fear and was able to help me travel through Indian reservations and deal with local realtors etc. At the end of one my trips, we were at Flamboyant shopping in Goiania. I gave her R$ 100 to go shopping. I sat on the mall bench and waited. After a period of time, she came back with presents for my family in Minnesota. She did not buy a damn thing for herself. I told myself- this one is different. In 2003, my son David was born. Needless to say, the best part of my life. 

2003-2005 

This was a stressful time. I had established myself in Goiania. I was now a father. I was in the deep end of the pool- sink or swim. My Portuguese was still limited. I could function, but by no means fluent. I think it took three years for me to become “Brazilian”. I became fluent enough in Portuguese to argue with my wife and, after she smoldered for a while, she would agree that I was correct with my argument. By this time I was doing a few tours in Mato Grosso and spending more time with locals at birthday parties, bars, parties and various get togethers. I remember one time talking to a group of truckers at a truck stop. I was telling them about my food poisoning adventure after eating a pastel at a bus station in Nova Mutum. I puked and shit for two days. I was able to tell this story in Portuguese and animate it. I had the truckers rolling on the ground and laughing tears. I told myself then, goddamn Kory, you maybe gonna be ok here? 

I was the land guy for a new start up company in Cuiaba being funded by Americans that I got to know on my first trip to Mato Grosso. I got to know many people and this gave me some credibility. After a period of time, we each went our separate ways. It was late 2005 and I was now unemployed, feeling very alone, and pondering what the future would hold for this lost Viking from Minnesota. This was probably the scariest time for me. 2006 was a tough year. I did not have much money and I considered packing up and going home. This is just too difficult. 

During this time, I had hooked up with another American expat in Goiania. Gene Whitmer became an invaluable sounding board and mentor along the way. If it were not for him at this time, I would not have made it in Brazil. Gene was a Brazil Peace Corp vet from the 60s. He had vast practical knowledge of Brazil. The good and the bad. He knew nothing about soybeans, but he had a website with a powerful Google ranking. Keep in mind this is all before the advent of social media. We would get together regularly for drinking sessions. These drinking sessions and my ability to go to Goiania shopping and watch a new movie in English were of great importance as to me being able to keep my sanity in Brazil. 

Gene was impressed with my knowledge of ag and what is going in Brazil. He suggested I start a blog?

What is a blog in 2005? Since his business of helping Brazil students learn English and study abroad was in decline, he was able to spend a lot of time setting up my current site of www.Brazilintl.com. This was all started as an experiment. This might not work. I threw my lasso around the website and never looked back. Swim Gringo Swim !!!!!!

I started to publish a newsletter and doing Mato Grosso tours for those interested. I was contacted by hedge funds, journalists, students, and curious travelers from around the world. The website allowed me to be found. From 2007 to 2012 was a blur. I was traveling all the time and sending out reports. I remember February of 2011. I was to Cuiaba three times. Three multi-billion dollar hedge fund tours back to back. I had arrived. I knew who I was now. 

By 2011 and 2012 a new client had popped up as a referral from another client that was getting my newsletter. Summit Ag had reached out for a tour and I showed them around and suggested they meet friends of mine in Lucas do Rio Verde, MT. I had met Paulo Franz on my first trip to Mato Grosso. He and his brother showed interest in corn ethanol production, but they needed capital and know how. 

Summit Ag was the perfect fit for a real estate deal and pivot into corn ethanol and Stine seed sales. 

From me saying yes to a tour and picking up the phone on a Sunday during a heated land deal negotiation has lead to circa US$ 750 million being invested in Mato Grosso. 

I have not gotten rich in Brazil. I have never screwed anyone one over in Brazil. I was in the right place at the right time to be of service. I do not think my story can be replicated today. It has taken 20 years, but I feel like all of the suffering, sacrifice, and due diligence was all worth it. Indirectly, I was able to contribute to Brazil and Mato Grossso. I have no idea of how many jobs that have been created. From a small idea of a website, blog and being willing to educate and introduce investors to dynamic Brazilian friends and contacts has made it all worth while. One of those tours that I did for a Mutual fund from New York back in Feb 2011 reached out to me in late 2022 for service in the fertilizer sector. That fund manager had moved on, but he remembered me and my tour and told his analyst to contact Kory- he will get you on the correct path. Eleven years after doing the first tour, it is still paying dividends. 

Social media has taken away the need for on the ground tours these days. However, one thing that has not gone away is the need for honest, accurate, real time advice on what is happening in Brazil. The ability to separate the noise from the what really matters. Recent political rhetoric is the prefect example. 

At this time, I would like to add that all the friendships, relationships, confidants, and yes all the parties, so so many parties, are worth more than all the Gold in the world. I think we all wonder if we can be “loved”, “liked”, “respected”, or “be of value” outside the small communities we grew up in. The answer is Yes. If you are humble, honest, diligent, and willing to self deprecate oneself by telling jokes, I think the world is full of friends willing to let you into their world. For that privilege, I am grateful. In other words- don’t be an asshole. 

I would like to thank the Zanni family for the confidence and letting me into their 60 year story. 

Ed bought 170,000 ha+ back in the 1960’s in central Mato Grosso. He was 40 years ahead of his time. He bought soybean ground zero before any soybeans were even thought of. His land was stolen from his family in the 80s and 90’s as the soybean wave came. 

They have been fighting to get their land back and or make deals to resolve the problem. I again jumped into the deep end of the pool. Sink, swim or die Gringo. I was in land mediation with Judges, aggressive lawyers, and local farmers fearful of losing their land. That was so intense, so emotional, and also the fear for my life was also a factor. This story is still playing out and it would make a captivating film. The story is full of betrayal, theft, intrigue, deception, subterfuge, death, and of course a billion dollars worth of land. 

I am grateful for being allowed to part take in this story. I was able to advise them to do this and not that.

It took years of experience to get there, but this again comes back to the beginning. If it was not for the mentoring of Gene Whitmer(web master), I could have easily fallen into the BR trap of riches, fame and land wealth by being greedy. It was so difficult to operate for years behind the scenes, but by doing so, it kept me alive. 

I was asked by an USA investor to check on his investment in Sao Paulo. He had a small factory and his Brazil partner was making roll tarps for trucks. He was wondering where all the money was going? I was able to pop in and find out that the BR partner had been selling inventory to a local scrap yard. He would get rid of inventory for pennies on the dollar for cash in his pocket. I later found that when the USA investor had come down for a visit and it was a Brazil holiday. The Gringo was not aware of this. The BR partner had hired local actors to pretend to be assembling tarps during the holiday as the real workers were at home. But, to keep the money coming and look busy, he had hired actors to manufacture items that would be taken to junk yard the next day for cash. It is paramount that any foreign investor live in Brazil, stand in line, kick the soccer ball around, and go to many many birthday parties in Brazil before you invest here. You must understand this cultural prerequisite first. 

I remember on one of my investor tours, I had retired to my hotel room for the evening. I heard a knock on my door and it was a young girl. She was sent to me as a present by a local. I was being watched. I have been followed by Mato Grosso realtors. Everyone wants a piece of the action. One must always give tips in Brazil. Sometimes in advance. When one parks your car at various locals, there is always a kid or someone with eyes watching the hood. You always give guys like this R$5. They are your eyes and ears. They are your car insurance. If it bothers you to give someone money for doing nothing, you cannot live in Brazil. One needs friends wherever you can find them. You need to pay. Even if this friend only last’s an hour. They are on your side for that hour and that can save your life or open the door to a new opportunity you had not thought of. 

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I would like to thank my son’s schools in Goiania. Casa das Letras for my son’s Elementary education and Colego Einstein for high school. The education my son received at these private school’s were invaluable to get him to where he is today. From a very young age, I was teaching my son English. I would take him to the bus each morning and we would repeat the following. The sky is blue. The flower is purple. The grass is green. The car is black. The bird is yellow. The moto is fast. I must have repeated those phrases 10,000 times. David also said those phrases 10,000 times. On Saturday’s or Sunday’s, we would watch the medical TV show “House”.

The show was in English with Portuguese subtext. My son would listen and read at same time. He would see all of those advanced medical phrases and then ask questions about them. He would go to his iPad at the time and look up more info about these rare diseases and read about them in Portuguese. 

In 2013, my son became very sick. It took many trips to hospitals and various medical opinions. He had an auto immune disorder that affected his large intestine. We were literally killing our child with antibiotics and warm milk and cheese. Once we got on correct track, it was 14 months of prednisone. This stabilized him, but he became swollen and affected his development in his adolescent years. He went to school wearing a mask. Kids would ask if had cancer. He became more introverted and wanted to understand why this is happening. He did not like Brazil hospitals. We made a trip to USA in 2014 and got a 2nd opinion in St. Paul, MN. The Indian doctor told us to stop this prednisone immediately. All he needs is a whole foods anti-inflammatory diet and he will be fine. It was a difficult two years from beginning to end. I think this experience shocked my son into the medial field. He wrote college essays saying, that once he becomes a doctor,  he will dedicate his life to helping kids to not suffer when they are ill. 

The pandemic came and my son graduated high school while laying on a couch. It was very anti-climatic for him. I told him to shoot the moon on his USA college applications. Let us try and turn all of this into lemonade. 

He was accepted to Notre Dame in Indiana, USA. He is a Biology major with a 3.8 GPA in USA. He is on a pre-med track. My son is planning to go to Copenhagen, Denmark this fall in a medical shadow program at an elite hospital there. It has a 1% acceptance rate. He has been accepted for fall semester 2023. Needless to say, his mother and I have tears of joy for him. He also has found his place on this Earth. He found his Povo. 

This story is not done. From a small website, will power, dedication, and putting good people in touch with other good people has made this all worth while. I am welcome at many houses in Mato Grosso and Brazil at any time. If I need a vehicle, airplane, or a favor, it is there. To me, that is priceless in this crazy world we live in. I, of course, had all of that in Minnesota. Surrounded by family, cousins, and neighbors all willing to to bend over backwards to help in a time of need. It took 20 years, but I can say I have that also in Brazil these days. I have friends, neighbors, and contacts that actually care about how we are doing. 

I would love to hear some feedback from readers.

Drop me a note if you liked this story or hated it.

Let us see where the next 20 years takes us 

Kory

agturbobrazil@yahoo.com

Mato Grosso and 2nd crop corn

 Hi

I will be in Mato Grosso next week for circa two weeks.

I will be posting photos and videos on either Twitter, Facebook or Instagram from time to time.

In Parana state, Cigarrinha do Milho (corn leaf hopper) is spreading a disease called Enfezamento. Basically, it destroys the plants ability to translocate nutrients and fill the cob. The corn plants are dying too early while still in milk stage. There seems to be only a few varieties that are resistant to the disease. There are many factors such as sanitary concerns with volunteer corn, pesticide applications, seed treatment, and climate variability. One variety that is resistant in Mato Grosso might be very susceptible in Parana, for example. Insurance companies are saying they will not pay for the losses. Reports are coming out saying up to 30-40% of Parana 2nd crop is lost due to this disease. 

Meanwhile, early corn yields in Mato Grosso are very good. Some reports as high as 180 sacs or 170 bu per acre are being reported on small tracts. This shows the potential with good varieties, proper rainfall, and planting dates. 

The later we get into harvest the lower the yields will be. IMEA will be out with a new corn crop size estimate for Mato Grosso Monday evening. I will send that out too subscribers. 

There was record area of 2nd crop corn planted in Brazil this year. We have some spots that have not seen a drop of rain for 60 days. These spots will be hurt for yields. But, all in all, given the early start to the dry season, the 2nd crop corn will still be a new record for the country. At one time, we were thinking 90 MMT+. It will likely shake out in the 85 MMT area with a risk of 80 MMT if the Parana losses are confirmed. Last year's drought corn was only 60 MMT for 2nd crop. 

Corn prices have weakened in recent weeks as harvest has started. B3 Sao Paulo corn is trading R$ 90 per sac and spot Sorriso, MT corn is R$ 68/sac. 

I fear for lots of fires again by August. The Cerrado is very dry again and it will be a tinder box by August. 

I find it interesting we have estimates for Brazil's 2023 soybean crop at 148 MMT. I would argue that Brazil will expand very little in the year ahead. Crop input prices are a disincentive to risk too much on new lands. However, the price of land in Brazil has exploded. 

Recent 2022 soybean crop estimates are increasing a little bit from their low point. We seem to be in the 124/125 MMT area for a final tally. This past year, we started with a 143 MMT soybean crop potential, but I think the true potential was more like 148 to start with. We can say that Brazil lost 24/25 MMT of its original potential. Brazil has never seen a production hit of that magnitude in soybeans. 

After two years of being beaten over the head by climate, I would think southern Brazil can count on a big crop in 2023. They are due a big one.

However, it has been about 7 years in a row of "Feast" of the Northeast quadrant of Brazil- aka MaPiToBa region. I would not be surprised that the "drought" returns the the Northeast in the coming years and other parts of Brazil will be above normal in productivity again. MaPiToBa produces 17 MMT of soybeans these days or equal to a Parana or RGDS. I remember when the region only produced 5 or 6 MMT cumulative. The region might have one or two years of average and then drop into a "Famine" phase of 2 or 3 years. This seems to be the ebb and flow of the Northeast. 

As we get into August to October timeframe, it will not only be the climate that will be hot, but also the politics in Brazil. In October, Brazil has a Presidential election. I am a gringo and I do not vote. It is not appropriate for me to comment one way or another on the candidates. 

Given my agro interests in Brazil, I and my friends are heavily biased towards the current administration. However, as I talk with locals not in "Ag", I am surprised at the high percentage of Brasileiros that want to go back to the epoch of 10-15 years ago. I do not pretend to understand this. I am only commenting on what I hear on the street talking with the common folk and lower middle class. I think those with investments in Brazil need a strategic plan to deal with possible changes ahead for 2023 and beyond. 

In October, as the rainy season starts again, I see the potential for many political Gremlins to get wet in Brazil. High food prices, high fuel prices, inflation, and high interest rates will all be hot button issues this fall. The world needs a "recession" to tamp things down, but I have no idea on what a soft landing entails. The wealthy can handle an asset set back. However, the poor will need assistance during this correction and that only leads to more demand. It is a perfect Catch 22 ahead. Damned if you do and damned if you don't. The world sure did not need a war at this time. It just exacerbated the problems. 

There is not a cloud in the sky these days in the Brasilian Cerrado. The morning sun rises and evening sun sets are breath taking. It is the calm before the storm. 

Drop me a note if any questions.

agturbobrazil@yahoo.com 

I will be doing a couple Brazil/Mato Grosso tours in January/Feb 2023. At least I think so. There is demand again for this, but Covid tests, fuel prices, and logistics could put a damper on things. I do not know today. Any trip to Brazil will be very expensive and subject to travel hiccups along the way. One will need patience or do not come. period........

Thank you

Kory

Keywords:

Brazil soybeans, Brazil corn, MaPiToBa, general comments 

From Peak Pessimism to Peak Optimism

Sept 18th, 2018 November soybeans made a low at 8.12 per bu.

At the time, the USA had 1 billion bushels of soybean carryover and China was
sucking Brazil dry as quickly as possible. (Peak Pessimism)
I would think in the next 60-70 days, we should be reaching
"Peak Optimism". 

By June 18th, 2022, 45 months will have elapsed since the 8.12 low.

November beans are toying with 15.20 per bu and the recent high has been

15.55 per bu.

The 2008 high in Nov soybeans was 16.36 per bu on July 3rd, 2008.

2022 is 14 years from 2008.

A "doubling" of the 8.12 low is 16.24 per bu. 

The 2012 high in SX beans was 17.89 per bu.

Are we headed there again?

Well, the stage is sure set. With 35 million tons lost

in South America and the war in Europe, if there is

a chance to check out the old record high prices, it is in the

near future. 

Brazil's 2nd crop is in good shape. Mato Grosso will

produce a record large corn crop of 40 MMT+.

If there are drought problems in the coming weeks,

it will be in the Goias, MGDS, and Minas Gerias regions.

At this time, I am not worried about 2nd crop corn.

We have record planted area and most of it went in the

ground 4-6 weeks earlier than last season.

There was some late planted corn again this season.

These acres are at risk, but nominal volumes in the whole 

scheme of things.

Soybean planted area is puzzling to me in Brazil.

Obviously, we increased area year over year.

Conab says we are at 40.8 million hectares of soybeans

in 2022. There are analysts that believe the real planted

area is closer to 43 million hectares. 

Given the cost of production for 2023 soybeans, I doubt

Brazil will expand soybeans for the next season.

However, if more acres are found, that will look like

Brazil is increasing year over year. 

There are up to 1.5 million "ghost soybean hectares" in Brazil.

If Conab and others increase their soybean planted area

again for 2023, I would argue that those same acres were

planted during this past season too. 

I will continue to argue that this past season's crop

likely had a larger starting point than what has been

in the media. We need to keep this in mind as we look to

2023. We maybe should penciling in 148-150 MMT for

Brazil for 2023 and not numbers closer to 140. 

I cannot prove this. The only data point I have that

supports this argument are the fertilizer volumes

delivered to producers in 2021. The amounts were

up 12-14% Year over Year. 

For 2022, we will likely see fertilizer decreases of

20% Year over Year. 

If the Brazil farmer can apply some extra "lime"

or calcario, he can buy some time before the lack

of fertilizer affects his productivity. 

It is paramount that the USA produces at least

an average crop of soy and corn for the year ahead.

If we have any hints that the current crop will come in

below trend line, it will be difficult for the world to

"catch up" again regarding global stocks of corn, soy,

and their derivatives. 

If I had to guess as to how things play out in the

coming months, it would be something like this:

Wheat, corn and soybeans make a significant market

top by the 4th of July, 2022.

We have a multi-month sell off and form a new

base at higher levels. 

We then rally again into February 2023. 

This bull market commodity story is likely to last

until early 2024. 

The trend should continue upwards with periodic

3-6 month sell offs. 

Back in November, I was saying you need to be a bull here.

I was shitting bricks at the time.

As we get into June, I need to pivot to being a bear, and 

yet again, I can see myself shitting bricks once again. 

As Top Gun II is finally ready to come out, I feel like

I have been waiting for this movie for three years !!!!.

I think the soy, wheat, and corn markets are about to

experience a higher level of G-forces. Strap in and have

a puke bag handy. We will likely need it this June and July.

For more info:

www.brazilintl.com

Thank you all

Kory

Keywords: Brazil soybeans, corn, prices, fertilizer

You can eat soybeans in my bed anytime

"You took the words right out of my mouth"

At 9:01 Brazil time on Thursday, when the Conab report came out,  

I was speechless.(I thought of Meatloaf at the time)

Never in the history of Conab have they ever

cut more than 7 million tons from report to report. The last time

was 2012, when the soybean crop was half as large as today.

I recently penned a newsletter titled "I was a bull when being

bullish wasn't cool" paying homage to Barbara Mandrell's

hit from 1981 "I was country when country wasn't cool".

This blog will be named "You can eat soybeans in my bed anytime"-

assuming you still have any ;>)

I wrote this in an old newsletter several weeks ago. I know many

people get lost when bouncing back and forth between millions

of tons and billions of bushels. 

The USDA said last week that old crop soybean carryover

will be 300 million bu or 8 million tons. Pipeline is said to

be 150 million bu or about 4 million tons.

Brazil came into 2022 with 4 MMT of old crop soybean

stocks. 

Brazil was expected to increase from 138 MMT to 145 MMT

this year or another 7 MMT. This is long gone. 

Last week, Conab basically confirmed that 20 MMT of Brazil

soybeans is gone. I think we need to be weary of possible

found acres later on. If there are extra acres, they are up north.

(Could we find 1 or 2 mmt later? ). YES

Chronic rains in the north will keep pressure on soybean quality

in the month of February. 

The million dollar question is: will continued dryness

in RGDS pull the production numbers even lower?

Possible- yes 

The anecdotal item that has my ears perked up is the datapoint

that insurance companies in Parana are cancelling 2nd crop

corn insurance policies to farmers. Why?

Did someone poop in their pants when looking at continued

"La Nina" weather maps? 

Maybe someone's testicles have not dropped yet?

If so, they have no business being in crop insurance

business. 

With Paraguay talking 4 mmt which is down from 10-11 mmt

of potential. Uruguay will come in 1 or 2 million tons light.

Argentina is looking more like 40 MMT which is down

from 50 MMT to start with. 

Bottomline is: USA can plant as many soybeans as she wants

in 2022. The market can take it all. 

Brazil will likely only export about 80 MMT in 2022.

At one time, we were thinking 90 MMT.

With the profitable crush margins, Brazil wants to

try and crush 45-48 MMT in 2022 if they can find the

beans. 

I think by Sept, USA will be down to pipeline stocks of

soybeans and by December, Brazil will have "Zero" beans

remaining in the country. Seed only.

Soybean market likely to be stimulated all year now.

There is no room for production hiccups

in USA in 2022. 

If any threat of crop losses, the markets will be explosive

now.

I remember back to Nov 9th low in beans. I was saying this

should be a low and we should rally back to 13.15 at some point.

This seemed insane at the time.

Many experts were looking for 11,10, and even 9 dollar soybeans.

This next week, we will likely check out 14.80 again basis

Nov 22 soybeans. 14.80 always bothered me last year.

It did not act like a high.

If the high would have been 14.74 3/4, I would have been

the biggest bear in the world.

14.80 was a long term "hint". "I ain't done yet" 

This is what SX was telling us 9 months ago. 

There are always hints in the market. The problem is finding them

and looking for subtle signals that a novice overlooks as just

another fundamental number.

There are more to the markets than fundamentals. But, it seems

like it takes looking at charts for 30 years to be able to see them.

If we cannot trade 14.80 early in the week basis Nov 22, then I would

think a sell off is likely.

If we trade 14.80- that will be one thing.

If we close on top of 14.80 twice, then I think it is

a straight shot to 16.36 basis SX.

When do we get there?

Maybe March 3rd maybe 

April 4th. 

I think there will be many 50 cent and 1 dollar moves

up and down between now and mid June.

Keep the Dramamine handy, the soybean market

will likely do a few barrel rolls and maybe even

a few power on stalls. Let us hope that does not

put us into a death spiral whereas it is difficult to

pull out of. 

The next 120 days will likely be something to

tell the grand kids about. 

If you missed out on 2008 and 2012, the next

crazy train is about to leave.

All aboard !!!!

Please bring your roasted soybeans with you ;>)

Kory

Happy New Year Welcome 2022

Happy New Year

I am not sure where 2021 went? For us, it was all a blur, but everything ended up being ok.

I would like to thank all the new subscribers and VIP clients this past year. I would also like to thank all the old subscribers that continue to renew year after year. It is appreciated. 

I find myself working through the holidays- just like last year at this time with Brazil drought concerns and a bull market in the making. I have outlined my price objectives for new crop soybeans and so far the soybean market is behaving as expected. I must say the May through October time frame was confusing and stressful. 

Western Parana, Santa Cat, parts of RGDS, and Paraguay are suffering a historic drought. It seems like every year they have some sort of dry spell and each year it gets worse. Last year the soybean crop was planted later and or replanted, so when the rains came in December, the crop still had time to recover and still produce 20 MMT each for Parana and RGDS.

To keep things in perspective: Parana + RGDS = 1 Mato Grosso. 

20 MMT + 20 MMT = "one" Mato Grosso or 40 MMT.

40 MMT = 1.45 billion bushels

1.45 billion bushels = all the soybeans in Iowa and Illinois combined.

Mato Grosso is in fantastic shape. 

As of December 20th, Sinop, Mato Grosso had recorded 1000 mm(40 inches) of rain since the beginning of the crop year starting in September. Compared to recent years, this is above normal rainfall. However, compared to 20 year historic rainfall, this is about right. We should get another 1000 mm or 40 inches from late December through the end of February. Normally, these heavy rains come in late January and early February and are called the "Amazon rains". 

With the soybean crop ready to be harvested in early January, we must hope these rains diminish in intensity so as to allow harvest and get the 2nd crop planted timely and in decent soil conditions. 

The yields out of Mato Grosso should be "awesome" this year.

By contrast dryer regions, such as Tocantins and Bahia, are getting well above normal rainfall for their region. The forecast is for 16-20 inches in the next 2 weeks. THIS IS A WOWZER.

Meanwhile, Parana, RGDS and Santa Cat cannot catch a rain. 

Many fields in western Parana are now past the point of no return. The crop was planted in late Sept and early Oct which means the soybeans are now in the last phases of pod fill. For many fields, it will be too late if rains come in early January. 

For RGDS, the situation is more of a jump ball. Early planted soybeans are hurting. However, soybeans being planted into wheat stubble today can still turn out quite well if rains would return in January. 

For Paraguay, I am hearing of 30% losses and previsions for 50% crop loss without rains in next 2 weeks. 

Paraguay was on deck to produce 11 MMT. Current estimates are for 8.5 MMT and dropping to 6-7 MMT is quite likely given current weather pattern.

Brazil 1st crop corn will not be 29 MMT as previously forecast by Conab. We are now looking at something less than 25 MMT -maybe even 23 MMT.

Brazil's corn ethanol production continues to surge and is helping compensate for last year's sugarcane crop loss due to drought. 

After last season's 2nd crop failure with late planting and drought, this is not what the domestic corn market needed. More corn imports from Argentina are needed to balance the supply demand equation over the next six months until Brazil 2nd crop can come online. 

The BRL is trading at 5.70:1. Inflation, 2022 elections, and questionable economic policy regarding future interest rates and recession are all conflicting data points that the central bank is trying to deal with. 

Strange new political alliances are occurring to try and maintain power and or defeat the current administration. If old PT leaders rise again, the markets will be in turmoil for most of 2022. 

AC/DC will sum up 2022- I fear- You shook me all night long ;>)

By the end of 2022, the new theme song will likely be "Shake it off" 

I am not sure what will happen in Brazil as per politics, economy, and crop production in the year ahead. What I do know is that Brazil will be the best show in town for most of the year. There will be no shortage of intrigue, drama, emotion, and passion. 

70% of the Brazil crop is in great condition albeit a bit wet. 30% is suffering a serious drought.

I have outlined potential crop loss parameters in recent newsletters. 

I send out audio reports from time to time. I include videos when possible.

Drop me a not if you have any questions.

I have increased the price of the newsletter and VIP light service for 2022. 

agturbobrazil@yahoo.com

or visit my website at www.brazilintl.com

Happy New Year

Kory and Brazilintl team

Keywords: Brazil soy production, Brazil weather, Brazil crop size potentials, BRL, politics 2022

2022 Brazil soybean crop

Nov 17th, 2021

Rains have been steady and beneficial.

I am not too worried about 2nd crop corn and cotton inputs.

2023 crop inputs are a dilemma. 

The Brazil soybean crop will be quite large.

Lots of talk about a Brazil CRP payment for Amazon. I am not sure if Brazil is ready for this.

Any questions:

www.Brazilintl.com 

"I am a producer from western South Dakota.  I love your witty commentary. "

DB SD, USA

July 18th blog update

Much has happened since the last update:

My son has been accepted to Notre Dame University in the USA. He is a very happy young man today. He wants to pursue Biology and pre-med courses. I look forward to getting him set up in South Bend in the coming weeks. Classes start August 23rd. 

Brazil is a circus. But, that is also the norm. Vaccination ages are down to the 38 year olds. The Delta variant is ripping through non vaccinated populations. The current admin is under investigation for its handling of the pandemic. Much chatter about impeachment. The current admin's approval rating is down to 24%. 

The central bank has been increasing interest rates and also doing some currency swaps to keep the REAL under control. So far, they seem to be doing a good job. The equilibrium price for the REAL seems to be about 5:1. FX at 5.30:1 seems too cheap with many economists thinking the REAL should be 4.50:1. With political uncertainty for 2022, my guess is the REAL will remain weak as to factor in some political risk for the year ahead. 

Expensive corn, crude oil, beef, chicken, and pork are all big headwinds for current admin to deal with in the year ahead. I made a comment a few months back in my newsletter stating that the current president's destiny is tied to Brazil domestic corn market. Some would say that energy prices will be the undoing of him. With the current dry season in play and water reservoirs at record lows, the ability to keep the lights and air conditioning on in the coming months might be a determining factor for the presidents' future. 

Ag sector is 100% behind the current President. They want to see the projects that have been initiated during the current admin completed in the next 3 to 5 years. If we see a new admin at the beginning of 2023, many projects could stall. Brazil is well known for starting a project and never finishing on time. It seems like even a small project takes a decade. 

Weather guys tell me to keep an eye on the cool water in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The weather could be a repeat of last season. A dry, late start to planting followed by heavy rains at harvest and then dry again for 2nd crop. I doubt the year will be as screwed up as last season. If a repeat of last year, many will lose their minds. 

Brazil looks like it will add another 1.5 million hectares of soybeans again for 2022. The fertilizer imports and sales are verifying this datapoint. Much chatter about lack of glyphosate for 2022. Farmer organizations have sent out press releases saying not to worry. The prices are higher, but there will be enough product. 

We will see a limited amount of X-tend soybean seeds out in the market this year. Farmer test plots and the like. 5-10-15 hectare plots I think. 

Replacement parts and getting delivery of new machines are also running behind. Basically, if you need a new tractor or combine, do not expect delivery until well into 2022. 

Two major lessons to take away from the 2021 Brazil crop.

1. Do not kill the soybean crop before Christmas. 

2. Do not plant 2nd crop corn after March 10th. 

Brazil needs to get its 1st/2nd crop corn ratio back in balance. I think we will see a bit more 1st crop corn in 2022, but the increase will be nominal. It will be up to RGDS and Santa Cat farmers to step up to the plate and get more 1st corn planted. This can happen as early as August. 

Things to keep an eye on in coming months:

1. Political impeachment proceedings

2. Late start to soybean planting i.e. not starting on Sept 15th

3. Lack of water and electricity in metro areas

4. Corn imports from ARG and USA later in the year

5. A lifting of travel restrictions by USA for Brazilians to travel abroad

6. Who will be the lead presidential candidates to counter the current admin?

7. Selic interest rates to 7% by year end to curb inflation 

8. A breakout of the BRL below 4.80:1 or above 5.30:1 

Drop me a note at agturbobrazil@yahoo.com for more info.

www.brazilintl.com 

Good luck with harvest 

Abracos

Kory