Sunday, July 18, 2021

July 18th blog update

Much has happened since the last update:

My son has been accepted to Notre Dame University in the USA. He is a very happy young man today. He wants to pursue Biology and pre-med courses. I look forward to getting him set up in South Bend in the coming weeks. Classes start August 23rd. 

Brazil is a circus. But, that is also the norm. Vaccination ages are down to the 38 year olds. The Delta variant is ripping through non vaccinated populations. The current admin is under investigation for its handling of the pandemic. Much chatter about impeachment. The current admin's approval rating is down to 24%. 

The central bank has been increasing interest rates and also doing some currency swaps to keep the REAL under control. So far, they seem to be doing a good job. The equilibrium price for the REAL seems to be about 5:1. FX at 5.30:1 seems too cheap with many economists thinking the REAL should be 4.50:1. With political uncertainty for 2022, my guess is the REAL will remain weak as to factor in some political risk for the year ahead. 

Expensive corn, crude oil, beef, chicken, and pork are all big headwinds for current admin to deal with in the year ahead. I made a comment a few months back in my newsletter stating that the current president's destiny is tied to Brazil domestic corn market. Some would say that energy prices will be the undoing of him. With the current dry season in play and water reservoirs at record lows, the ability to keep the lights and air conditioning on in the coming months might be a determining factor for the presidents' future. 

Ag sector is 100% behind the current President. They want to see the projects that have been initiated during the current admin completed in the next 3 to 5 years. If we see a new admin at the beginning of 2023, many projects could stall. Brazil is well known for starting a project and never finishing on time. It seems like even a small project takes a decade. 

Weather guys tell me to keep an eye on the cool water in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The weather could be a repeat of last season. A dry, late start to planting followed by heavy rains at harvest and then dry again for 2nd crop. I doubt the year will be as screwed up as last season. If a repeat of last year, many will lose their minds. 

Brazil looks like it will add another 1.5 million hectares of soybeans again for 2022. The fertilizer imports and sales are verifying this datapoint. Much chatter about lack of glyphosate for 2022. Farmer organizations have sent out press releases saying not to worry. The prices are higher, but there will be enough product. 

We will see a limited amount of X-tend soybean seeds out in the market this year. Farmer test plots and the like. 5-10-15 hectare plots I think. 

Replacement parts and getting delivery of new machines are also running behind. Basically, if you need a new tractor or combine, do not expect delivery until well into 2022. 

Two major lessons to take away from the 2021 Brazil crop.

1. Do not kill the soybean crop before Christmas. 

2. Do not plant 2nd crop corn after March 10th. 

Brazil needs to get its 1st/2nd crop corn ratio back in balance. I think we will see a bit more 1st crop corn in 2022, but the increase will be nominal. It will be up to RGDS and Santa Cat farmers to step up to the plate and get more 1st corn planted. This can happen as early as August. 

Things to keep an eye on in coming months:

1. Political impeachment proceedings

2. Late start to soybean planting i.e. not starting on Sept 15th

3. Lack of water and electricity in metro areas

4. Corn imports from ARG and USA later in the year

5. A lifting of travel restrictions by USA for Brazilians to travel abroad

6. Who will be the lead presidential candidates to counter the current admin?

7. Selic interest rates to 7% by year end to curb inflation 

8. A breakout of the BRL below 4.80:1 or above 5.30:1 

Drop me a note at agturbobrazil@yahoo.com for more info.

www.brazilintl.com 

Good luck with harvest 

Abracos

Kory








Friday, April 2, 2021

From droughts to floods and still 135 MMT

 How many hectares of soybeans were planted in 2020?

In the March Conab report, they increased planted area by 200,000 ha from 38.2 M ha to 38.4 M ha. There are some BR consultants using a 38.9 M ha planted area. This extra 500,000 ha would yield an extra 1.5 to 1.7 million tons. This explains part of the difference of opinion of those who think the crop is from 133 to 135 MMT. 

In the January newsletter, I looked at fertilizer delivered to producers and calculated that it is possible the starting point for this year's soybean crop started at 136.5 MMT. 

When I think back to the weather patterns back in Oct, Nov, and Dec, I am amazed that we are looking at a crop that is 133 MMT or larger. What does it take to kill the BR crop? The December 15th rains were a godsend because without them, millions of tons were on the cusp of evaporating. 

Mato Grosso yields were 5-7% less than last year's record productivity. Para state and Tocantins also took a hit from too much rain in February. The city of Sinop in Mato Grosso has received 2000 mm of rain from Oct to March. Most of the rain came in the months of December and February. We had a drought and a flood in the same crop season. 

Early Parana yields were terrible. However, later planted soy turned out ok. The yields were 60 sacs per hectare. This is good but not like the 70 and 80 sac yields from the previous season. 

Bahia was probably the garden of eden in 2021. We are hearing reports of 80 sac soybeans. For Bahia, this is beyond fantastic. Bahia will likely produce 6.5 MMT this year. 

RGDS is also in good shape. There is much talk of a 20 MMT crop. RGDS is the only state that can plant soybeans behind corn due to Asian rust. There are some very young soybeans in RGDS that are benefitting from late season rains. 

We still have a wide range of opinions for the Brazil soybean crop. From 128 MMT to 136 MMT. I find this 8 MMT spread really really interesting. I think back to 10 years ago, it seemed like we would debate the size of the BR soybean crop and everyone was in a 2 or 3 MMT bandwidth. The bigger the BR soybean crop becomes, the wider the ranges have become. 

Subscribers know where I stand. 

For 2022, it looks like a 140 MMT soybean crop is the baseline. It would take some really weird weather to come in less than 140 MMT in 2022 at this rate. 

Cost of production is an issue for the year ahead. KCL has risen from R$ 1600 per ton to R$ 2200 per ton for the next season. Urea has risen from R$ 1650 per ton to R$ 2300 per ton. MAP from R$ 1900 per ton to R$ 3500 per ton. Will this curb expansion? Not likely so long as corn and soybeans remain at record high prices- the animal spirits will run free. 

Land prices and land rents are on the rise. Many are negotiating new rental rates at higher levels up to 2 years in advance of contract expiration. I know of land rents in Mato Grosso that were at 13 to 15 sacs of soybeans per hectare rising to 18 sacs per hectare in the future. This is a wow for MT.

This brings us to 2nd crop corn. Will we kill this crop in the next 30 days or will Brazil pull a 2nd rabbit out of her hat for 2021? 

Corn prices on the B3 are trading at R$ 95 per sac for May. With a weak FX/BRL, this will likely trade at R$ 100 per sac of corn in April. Who wudda thunk?

I remember when corn traded at R$ 5 per sac in Mato Grosso back in 2005 time frame. 

Last year's 2nd crop corn was 75 MMT. We planted a record area of 2nd crop corn this season. I know of corn that is still being planted in Goias and MGDS as I type this. On the surface, one would have to assume these producers are insane to keep planting corn. It would be like planting corn in Iowa in July. 

Why are they doing this? 

It depends on the area. What is your land cost? If you have paid for land, one can plant a low cost corn crop and breakeven at about 30 to 40 bushel per acre. In the states, we would call the crop insurance agent to send out the adjuster. In Brazil, in 2021, if you can harvest something better than 40 bu per acre on cheap land, you are likely to be in the black. This is because of the high price of corn. Keep in mind they are reducing populations and will likely only spray the corn twice. Once with glyphosate and one more time for bugs. Take what you get. 

We have already seen reductions in the 2nd crop corn from 83 MMT to 77 MMT. This will likely continue. We will not get an accurate count of BR corn crop until August. We will likely be hearing production ranges from 70 MMT to 80 MMT+ for a long time yet. 

I ask myself: What if BR 2nd crop corn comes in at 70 MMT at the same time USA is hot and dry in July? That might garner the markets attention? 

We have a market situation in Brazil that is completely out of balance. We are seeing spot corn reaching R$ 100 per sac and soybeans are at R$ 150-R$ 160 per sac. A ratio of 1.5:1.

Can you imagine if Chicago was trading US$ 15 dollar soybeans and corn was trading US$ 10.00 per bushel at the same time? That is what it is like in Brazil at the moment. 

Area of 1st crop corn has been decreasing and shifting to soybeans for over 10 years now. I will assume that in Parana, Santa Cat. and RGDS we will see a reversal of this trend for 2022. We should start to see more 1st crop corn being planted by August this year. Brazil has put too much dependence on the 2nd crop. 

Inflation is running hot in Brazil. Gasoline and Diesel are on the rise. Beef, soy, and corn are all at record high prices. The BRL seems to like the 5.70:1 area. The pandemic has gutted political, economic, and social stability. If the BRL could drop back to the 4.50:1 area, many problems would correct themselves. If we pop above 6:1 in the future, Brazil will be in chaos. 2022 is an election year. 

If one lives inside the BR Ag bubble, things are exciting in Brazil. If one lives outside the bubble, the future is quite scary in Brazil. Vaccinations are picking up pace now, but it is starting to act like much of 2021 will disappear before any sense of normalcy will return to Brazil on a macro level. If the natives get restless, things could deteriorate from here. The publics patience is wearing thin. 

Happy Easter to all,

For more info drop me a note at agturbobrazil@yahoo.com

www.brazilintl.com

Kory

keywords: soybeans, corn, crop size, record prices, planted area, inflation 





Wednesday, February 10, 2021

Feb 10th blog update

 The slow harvest continues........

Steady as we go here. My son, David, graduated from BR high school while lying on the couch. He has applied to 10 different USA universities and we are in a wait and see mode. To date, he has received one approval from a college in St. Paul, MN. This was not his first choice but more of a backup college. 

I am not sure where the last 17 years have gone. It was just yesterday when it was common for me and him to go to Goiania shopping, watch a movie, grab some fries and Mcnuggets and call it day. He is now ready for the next step in his educational career. He is fluent in Portuguese and English. 

I am reminded of a closing scene in a TV program called "Everwood". I remember watching it and the TV show "House" with David on the weekends ten or more years ago.

The letter the mother wrote to her graduating son was very good I thought. I told myself, that this is what I would write to David when the time was right. 

"My dearest Ephram...

I've been sitting in our kitchen for the last half hour simply imagining you... wondering what you must be thinking right now... what you must be feeling.

How handsome you must look in your cap and gown.

If you're thinking about me...Stop! Send a kiss to the sky... And then focus your thoughts on what's coming towards you, not what you left behind.

I'm forever entwined in your past...your present...and your future. You needn't pause to look for me. I'm right here.

If you're feeling frightened about what comes next...Don't! Embrace the uncertainty. Allow it to lead you places. Be brave as it challenges you to exercise both your heart and your mind, as you create your own path towards happiness. Don't waste time with regret.

Spin wildly into your next action. Enjoy the present...each moment as it comes... because you'll never get another one quite like it.

And if you should ever look up and find yourself lost, simply take a breath and start over. Retrace your steps and go back to the purest place in your heart where your hope lives.

You'll find your way again.

Love, Mom."


I think in this time of Covid, we can all find ourselves lost. We think of things as they used to be. 
In Brazil, everyone hugs and kisses each other on a regular basis. Covid is really a shock to this culture. 

I am thankful for clients that have stayed with me for up to 17 years. The new demand lead rally that got going in November was a welcome change to the circa 3-year pause due to the USA/China trade war. 
To all the new subscribers, welcome. 

I pointed out in the newsletters that I thought the April 2020 low was a long term low. We need to be thinking of higher prices not lower. But, with that said, I did not think a 6 dollar rally was possible in a matter of weeks. 

In the February part IV newsletter, I showed the significance of the Jan 15th high of 12.03 basis Nov 21 soybeans. I hope clients made use of it. This does not mean we cannot go higher, but for the moment, we maybe take a little pause. 

The Brazil soybean crop is very late. I find it confusing how we have some thinking the crop is small such as 128 MMT and others that think the crop is getting bigger at 135 MMT. These 7 MMT are damn important when the USA is running on fumes. 
Conab comes out on Thursday, Feb 11th. 

On Brazil rural media, I found it interesting that a farmer out in Sapezal, MT has measured the lowest July to Dec 31st precipitation in his 40-year history on the land. It has never rained less than 650 mm or 26 inches of rain during this period. In 2020, he recorded 256 mm or 10.25 inches of rain. Rainfall picked up in January which saved his crop. On average, he says he will lose about 2 sacs per ha from last year's yield. Not bad- considering. 

Drop me a note if you would like a sample newsletter. I am not into free trials. I respect new VIP clients that step up to the bar and buy the elevated service level. I would be happy to provide references. 

Brazil is starting to get some vaccine. The old people are first and I see elderly people in nursing homes on the news screaming that they do not want it !!!! One 90-year-old lady said to a nurse after her shot,
Where is my beer? I should at least get a beer for going through this. I chuckled. 

Stay safe

Kory

agturbobrazil@yahoo.com

Keywords: slow soy harvest, soy market, newsletter, lack of rainfall 




Saturday, January 9, 2021

Do you know how Brazilian you have become?

Watching events in the USA the past week from afar has made me ask myself:

Is this USA or Brazil I am watching on TV? I ask myself if I was 25 again, would I have been in Washington D.C. too?

In Brazil, when I meet someone new and they ask where I am from, I respond that I am"Paraguayan" aka "Brasileira falsificado". It usually begets a laugh from the Brazilian native. 

After living in Brazil circa 18 years, one gets to a point where one has seen all the "wasted emotions" and drama the culture can create. I think at its core this is what attracts Gringos to Brazil and in the end, it drives them insane. Latin America is known for its "Passion" and lust for life. Sometimes these emotions get in the way of rational thought. In Brazil, this is normal. When we see behavior like this in the USA, for example, the viewer looks at this as the beginning of the end of the world. In Brazil, we look at this and say that the group is just venting their "passion" or beliefs, they will cool down in a day or so. I call them Brazilian "solar flares". Let them get it out of their system. Brazilians will holler and scream and beat on one another while yelling demeaning comments about the family member or friend. To an American, we find this to be insane and would never talk to this person again. However, in Brazil, it might take a few days or a few months, but the "fighting parties", will then cry, hug, kiss, and apologize for hours as they discuss how they were possessed by "demons" or " bad spirits" and they are now possessed by the "Holy Spirit" and all is well again. 

When one sees this enough times, one knows better and I just walk away or know enough to not engage in the situation. A "time out" so to speak. In Brazil, it is not only the conflict that is "Dramatic", but also the resolution must have a copious amount of emotions and tears. Therefore, both parties get two movies for the same price. In the USA, we seem to enjoy paying the entrance price for each movie. 

To most reading this, they will have no clue what I am talking about. It only comes with years and years of living in another culture outside the USA. 

With the preface above, I will not get too political as it has no upside business potential for me to do so. I will stick to the data, Brazil, Argentina, Soybeans, and Corn.

When I look back at the last four-plus years and all the rhetoric on social media, the desensitization of other Americans and humans, are we really that surprised that it would end with a display of "emotion" like what we have witnessed this past week? Really?

I think all of us should look in the mirror as to who we are today as compared to four or more years ago? We all look at the TV and say: "Has the world gone mad?" Maybe we need to ask the question? What did I do or not do, that helped lead to this? 

If a 16-year-old sneaks out and goes to a party and takes selfies drinking at the party, does that not merit taking their car keys and cell phone away for a period of time? I realize we are all up in arms about censorship and freedom of speech. We see freedom of speech as a "right". But I must say, I think it also a privilege, and maybe some of us have abused that privilege on both sides in 2020. 

We must not abuse that "right" by inciting hateful and demeaning remarks about others. If you have nothing good to say, then say nothing at all? What if we would have lived by that motto for the past 4 plus years?

Every one of us has co-participated in the degenesis of the American body politic. Let us hope that this is the crescendo of the 2nd act of the movie where the plot takes an unexpected turn and the hero appears for a happy ending. The past four years were intense. It might take a while for some to come down from the adrenal high that we have been on for some time. We became accustomed to chaos. Chaos is not the norm. 

Back to Brazil soybeans:

The past 3 weeks have been beneficial to the Brazil soybean crop. 

The forecast for the next few weeks for Brazil and Argentina is for more rain. 

I have included some stats in a recent newsletter to help readers build comprehension. 

The market is obsessed with Argentina. I make the argument that Argentina is more of a corn story than a soybean production story. In the past five seasons, Brazil has increased circa 40 million tons of soybean potential or 1.4 billion bushels. In the same five years, Argentina's soybean baseline has shrunk circa 10 mmt from 60 mmt to 50 mmt. This has been due to a confluence of factors such as export tax, fx, climate, politics, inflation, and cost of production. 

The bottom line is: if Argentina comes in a few million tons light in 2021, it is not that big of a deal.

If Brazil and or RGDS comes in a few million tons light in 2021, it becomes a bigger story. 

I think Conab could increase planted area in the January report and cut yield estimates for Mato Grosso and Parana. I know of a few hundred thousand hectares of soy in Mato Grosso that were abandoned and planted to cotton. I am not sure when these acres will be counted. I fear Conab goes higher before it goes lower for the soybean crop. I could be and hope I am wrong. 

For more info contact me at

www.brazilintl.com

or drop me an email at agturbobrazil@yahoo.com

stay safe

Kory



 


Wednesday, November 25, 2020

40 year drought in Brazil


Happy Holidays


Much has happened since Sept 1. 


Back in Sept, I too was a proponent of 135 mmt of soybeans

and 110 mmt+ of corn. Today, I am not.


I read weather reports saying that this is worst drought in 40 years.

I might remind readers that 2015/2016 drought was quite severe.

I must try and rationalize this. Forty years ago there were no soybeans

in Mato Grosso. There were only cows, gold speculators and T-rex's

roaming the great Cerrado or transitional Amazon rain forest. 


Back in August and September, when the Pantanal was on fire and 

making global media attention, I read that this is the worst Pantanal fire

since 1950 or some such date 60 or 70 years ago.

"Correio Braziliense writer Simone Kafruni noted that, “while the eyes of the world are focused on deforestation in the Amazon, the fires do not stop burning the Brazilian Pantanal.”  According to the article, the lack of rain in the biome for the period is one of the worst in that region in the last 47 years:"


The point being is that this has happened before- before the modern soybean era


So, in my mind, we cannot blame this on soybean farmers and deforestation. 

We maybe can make a case for an acceleration of a natural process, but we cannot

blame 100% of this on agriculture. 


As of today, Nov 25th, 2020, we are experiencing below normal rainfall in several

Brazil states and into Argentina. Many call it La Nina. However, in the Pacific Ocean,

we do not have La Nina type conditions. So, for the sake of argument, let us say we are

experiencing a weather anomaly that has La Nina type conditions. 


This has caused the replanting of soybeans. It has caused a few producers, who grow cotton as a 2nd crop, to hold back some intended area of 1st crop soybeans so they can plant their cotton in a timely manner in December. 


We are hearing about major losses in 1st crop corn in RGDS.


We have some soybean fields that look fantastic and others that are flowering and setting

pods and are only 10 inches high. 


Generally speaking, if we draw a line EAST/WEST from Cuiaba, MT across the country,

to the north of this line the crops are fine and to the south of this line we have crops that range from

terrible condition to those running on luck because they have caught a few random showers. 


Cuiaba  to Goiania is 16 deg S latitude. 


I would say those crops north of 15 Deg S latitude are in good shape or at least

have some cushion to handle a hot dry week such as what we are experiencing.


So the question is: How much soy is growing north of 15 Deg S latitude and how

much is under stress to the south of this line?


Mato Grosso  37 mmt potential with 7 mmt in SE MT under stress

Goias   13 mmt potential with 50% under stress 

MaPiToBa potential is 15.7 mmt and all is in good condition

Minas Gerias 6 mmt with 50% under stress

Sao Paulo       4 mmt with 50% under stress

Parana           20 mmt with 50% under stress

RGDS          20 mmt with 50% or more under stress, but later planting

Santa Cat     2.5 mmt and under stress

MGDS        12 mmt with 50% under stress

Para and Rondonia 3 mmt and in good shape


So if we split out the production north and south of 15 deg S latitude, we get

something like this:


Good soybeans = 30+ 6.5+15.7+ 3 = 55 mmt of potential in good shape(bumper crop)


Soybeans under stress either yellow or orange alert = 78 mmt


Of the 78 mmt there are perfect fields growing, there are fields with yellow

alert drought stress and some orange spots where soybeans are complete crap.

Maybe 20% of the areas are in dire need of water yesterday or are already

podding and the potential is fixed. 


So, Yes December is critical for maintaining yields.


This week is dry.


There is rain in the forecast for next week.


If these rains hit the areas in need, that can help stabilize the 78 mmt

group.


If these rains miss, we need to start talking about 10% and 20% production

hits to those areas south of 15 deg S latitude or the 78 mmt potential at the

beginning of the season.


Place your bets


Kory


For more info:


check out www.brazilintl.com







Saturday, August 29, 2020

Sept 1 I've given her all she's got Captain

When I think ahead to the 2021 crop year for Brazilian farmer, I cannot help but think of Scotty in an old Star Trek episode: "I've given her all she's got Captain." 

I must say I am most impressed with Brazil ports this past season. They pumped out 70 mmt of soybeans in record time- even with Covid.

The Northern Arc ports keep taking market share from the south. 

Rumo rail is dropping their freight rates for 2021 and 2022. This is giving grain traders some help with locking in margins selling corn and soy ahead for 2021 and 2022. 

Soybean and corn demand is red hot. This past week we have seen new record high prices for both corn and soybeans. This took place while Conab found extra tons from the last few years- even the drought year was bigger than we expected. 2021 we will blow the bin doors out with photon torpedos loaded with soy. 

I get asked questions from non-subscribers as to why? how ? what are the factors for this fantastic Brazilian profitability. Subscribers have been well versed on this the past couple years as I broadcast on all channels regarding FX and BRL above 4:1. The CME no longer matters when FX is 4.50:1, 5.0:1 or 5.50: 1. 

This is not just a language barrier. This is not a Lost in Translation movie. To understand this, I have come to the conclusion that the North American onlooker needs to understand not only Portuguese and Madarin, but also Klingon. 

I say this facetiously with a twinkle in my eye. 

We have seen a dollar rally in soybeans recently. We are above 9 bucks again. I think we have turned the corner from this long term downtrend in soybeans. However, with soybeans trading R$ 130 per sac(old crop), R$ 100 per sac (new crop), and corn R$ 50 (old crop) and R$ 40+ for new crop in Mato Grosso and Parana, I feel like I am on the Halo-deck. What soy and corn fantasy can I create today?

For the Brazil farmer, it feels like 2012 or 2013 did for the USA farmer without the drought. It feels like they are selling 7+ dollar corn and 16 dollar beans. With the help of FX, i.e. strong Chinese Yuan and cheap BRL, they can still compete with USA looking two years out. The only limiting factor is not enough production. Prior to the Iowa wind storm, the USA farmer was looking at a different Halo-deck experience. Brazil remains competitive in dollar terms. 

Brazil farmer has costs under control for 2021. However, these FX costs will come into play in 2022 for crop inputs and machinery pieces that are imported.

It all seems so surreal. With only minor crop production problems in Parana and RGDS, how can domestic markets be at record highs?

In conclusion, as I try to explain this to clients and possible new clients, I feel that not only am I translating Portuguese to English, but at times it seems other worldly. It seems like USA farmer is in one solar system and the Brazilians are in another. I will let the reader decide who the Klingons are? I could make a good case for both given the last few years politics. 

One needs to contemplate as to when the Klingons will decloak? At some point the Federation might have a brief moment to gain some market share? Change in FX? Natural disaster? Change in admin? Inflation and commodity fund interest given the trillions injected by Fedpedos?

Is it too precocious of me to sign off as the Soy Jedi Master? Or is that too much of a leap? Too much of a juxtaposition for the reader to handle?

Good Luck with harvest

Good luck with planting- It will begin in a few days

For more info for services:

Click:

https://www.brazilintl.com/kory-melbys-ag-newsletter.html

https://www.brazilintl.com/vip-consulting.html

Closing thought: At what point does one acquire enough wealth that one can trade in his Tri-axle struggle bus for a single axle? 

Keywords: Brazil soy and corn 2021, Record high prices, BRL, USA/BR ag econ comp, hidden fundamental changes to the market 




Saturday, April 25, 2020

Dollar/Real traded 5.74:1

Much has changed in the past month.

Sorriso soybeans are quoted at R$ 92.00 per sac on April 24, 2020.
19 years ago on April 12th, 2001, the low for Sorriso soybeans was
R$ 13.27 per sac. That is a 7:1 change. That is perspective.

Back in April 2001, Chicago soybean low was 4.29. As of Friday,
May soy was quoted at US$ 8.30 per bu. A 1.93:1 ratio.

Back in 2001 the Dollar:Real was 2:1.
As of Friday, April 24, 2020, the Dollar/Real traded as wide as 5.74:1.

Needless to say, I am shell shocked like everyone else. I wrote a newsletter
back in February stating that a close above 4.32:1 would indicate a move
to 5.20:1 and possibly 7:1 if one factors in inflation. I myself did not
believe this was possible.

Back in 2001, both the USA farmer and BR farmer were broke.
What bothered me back in 2001, when I first visited Mato Grosso,
was that the BR farmer was was expanding by clearing forest and back
home in Minnesota we were living on CRP, LDP'S, and Pre-vent plant
checks from the government.  How the hell can these guys justify expanding
was what I was thinking back then. I would justify this by saying, "they have
FX working for them at 2:1."

Fast forward to today and Brazil farmer is expanding yet again and back
home everyone is surviving on MFP, Crop revenue insurance, and PLC payments.
Everything has changed yet nothing has changed?

I have told many on my tours that the one factor that could have halted
the Brazilian soybean renaissance would have been a smaller USA CRP
program. That 40 million acres taken out of production gave Brazil the
green light to expand. Even though soybeans were 4 dollars in Chicago,
that was still too high of a price. 

If we did not have 40 million acres in CRP and let the market wash out

back then, that would have halted Brazil's advance in Mato Grosso. 

Today it is too late. 


I hear rumblings that the USA needs a temporary set aside program

to take acres out of production in USA. Brazilians would say YES!!!
Please do that !!!!

The problem is that new USDA programs intended to help in

the short run end up being long term programs.

There has been talk about paying Brazil farmers to not clear more

forest. In essence, a Brazilian CRP program for the Amazon.

Yes, Brazil would like that. The problem is that there is no FSA office

to administer, certify, and oversee the program. This would be ripe
with corruption and abuse. 

There is no correct answer today. We all have been too reliant on China

as the supplier of cheap goods and the buyer of our bulk commodities. 

For the time being, FX will protect the Brazil farmer. Sometime in the next

12 months the costs of production will start to explode here. Imported goods
will become more and more expensive at the same time manufactured goods 
produced in Brazil will be harder and harder to export. 

Bulk commodities like soy, corn, cotton, coffee and cattle will be the short

term winners in this devaluation game. 

Political situation here in Brazil changed a lot this past week with the

firing of Minister of Health and the resignation of Minister of Justice Moro.
There are rumblings that Minister of Ag is next to go.

This is not the forum to discuss politics.


I will do that in a private setting such as the newsletter. 


Back in 2004, 24,000 sqr KM of deforesation occured which

was peak soybean expansion year over year. 

Last year, it was 10,000 sqr KM and look at the media attention

Brazil received because of that. I chuckled at the time.
You think that was a fire? Just wait, I will show you a fire. 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWtyZoN2Vz4

Now that's a fire!!!!

This August you will being hearing much of this.

USDA has Brazil expanding by 3-4% for 2021.
That is now the baseline.

I ask myself could it be double that?

Maybe, it is difficult to keep expanding by big
percentages when the numbers get this big.

Anything that can  be produced and generate new
dollars will be gold in the year ahead.

Buckle up- the new Brazil/Amazon Disney roller
roaster will be the best ride around.

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who has 20 years experience in Brazil.

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Stay safe

Kory

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deforesation rates, expectations for 2021