Watching events in the USA the past week from afar has made me ask myself:
Is this USA or Brazil I am watching on TV? I ask myself if I was 25 again, would I have been in Washington D.C. too?
In Brazil, when I meet someone new and they ask where I am from, I respond that I am"Paraguayan" aka "Brasileira falsificado". It usually begets a laugh from the Brazilian native.
After living in Brazil circa 18 years, one gets to a point where one has seen all the "wasted emotions" and drama the culture can create. I think at its core this is what attracts Gringos to Brazil and in the end, it drives them insane. Latin America is known for its "Passion" and lust for life. Sometimes these emotions get in the way of rational thought. In Brazil, this is normal. When we see behavior like this in the USA, for example, the viewer looks at this as the beginning of the end of the world. In Brazil, we look at this and say that the group is just venting their "passion" or beliefs, they will cool down in a day or so. I call them Brazilian "solar flares". Let them get it out of their system. Brazilians will holler and scream and beat on one another while yelling demeaning comments about the family member or friend. To an American, we find this to be insane and would never talk to this person again. However, in Brazil, it might take a few days or a few months, but the "fighting parties", will then cry, hug, kiss, and apologize for hours as they discuss how they were possessed by "demons" or " bad spirits" and they are now possessed by the "Holy Spirit" and all is well again.
When one sees this enough times, one knows better and I just walk away or know enough to not engage in the situation. A "time out" so to speak. In Brazil, it is not only the conflict that is "Dramatic", but also the resolution must have a copious amount of emotions and tears. Therefore, both parties get two movies for the same price. In the USA, we seem to enjoy paying the entrance price for each movie.
To most reading this, they will have no clue what I am talking about. It only comes with years and years of living in another culture outside the USA.
With the preface above, I will not get too political as it has no upside business potential for me to do so. I will stick to the data, Brazil, Argentina, Soybeans, and Corn.
When I look back at the last four-plus years and all the rhetoric on social media, the desensitization of other Americans and humans, are we really that surprised that it would end with a display of "emotion" like what we have witnessed this past week? Really?
I think all of us should look in the mirror as to who we are today as compared to four or more years ago? We all look at the TV and say: "Has the world gone mad?" Maybe we need to ask the question? What did I do or not do, that helped lead to this?
If a 16-year-old sneaks out and goes to a party and takes selfies drinking at the party, does that not merit taking their car keys and cell phone away for a period of time? I realize we are all up in arms about censorship and freedom of speech. We see freedom of speech as a "right". But I must say, I think it also a privilege, and maybe some of us have abused that privilege on both sides in 2020.
We must not abuse that "right" by inciting hateful and demeaning remarks about others. If you have nothing good to say, then say nothing at all? What if we would have lived by that motto for the past 4 plus years?
Every one of us has co-participated in the degenesis of the American body politic. Let us hope that this is the crescendo of the 2nd act of the movie where the plot takes an unexpected turn and the hero appears for a happy ending. The past four years were intense. It might take a while for some to come down from the adrenal high that we have been on for some time. We became accustomed to chaos. Chaos is not the norm.
Back to Brazil soybeans:
The past 3 weeks have been beneficial to the Brazil soybean crop.
The forecast for the next few weeks for Brazil and Argentina is for more rain.
I have included some stats in a recent newsletter to help readers build comprehension.
The market is obsessed with Argentina. I make the argument that Argentina is more of a corn story than a soybean production story. In the past five seasons, Brazil has increased circa 40 million tons of soybean potential or 1.4 billion bushels. In the same five years, Argentina's soybean baseline has shrunk circa 10 mmt from 60 mmt to 50 mmt. This has been due to a confluence of factors such as export tax, fx, climate, politics, inflation, and cost of production.
The bottom line is: if Argentina comes in a few million tons light in 2021, it is not that big of a deal.
If Brazil and or RGDS comes in a few million tons light in 2021, it becomes a bigger story.
I think Conab could increase planted area in the January report and cut yield estimates for Mato Grosso and Parana. I know of a few hundred thousand hectares of soy in Mato Grosso that were abandoned and planted to cotton. I am not sure when these acres will be counted. I fear Conab goes higher before it goes lower for the soybean crop. I could be and hope I am wrong.
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