Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Kory´s private Mato Grosso crop tour for subscribers and VIP clients

I am planning my own private crop tour of Mato Grosso starting January 20th.

I will be on the ground for the first of the soybean harvest and evaluate
the middle planted soy potential at that time.

I will start at Sinop and work my way back and forth 100-200 km deep
on each side of BR 163. I will do this all the way to Nova Mutum area.

This area would encompass circa 13 million tons of soy production potential.
We should be able to get a good grasp of crop size by then.

There is too much BS in the media these days. It is hard to know what
to believe.

I plan to send out at least 4 newsletters in January.
One a week on average.

I will send crop report updates direct to subscribers and my VIP
clients for their use.

The link for newsletter is:

The link to VIP consulting service is:

One can also access these links at the top of this blog page.

This includes follow up telephone and email reponses to querys.

If you have any questions or want to discuss options drop me an email
and we will set up a consult time to chat about options.
I am open to suggestions.

The newsletter price is firm for one year.

I would be open to a quarterly retainer at the VIP level for those
that want to monitor harvest conditions for the next 3 to 6 months and
not all year, for example. Renewal each quarter. For new clients only.

My telephone number is: 011-55-62-3286-1506
cell 011-55-62-9912-1085
WhatsAPP also

Happy Holidays


Friday, December 18, 2015

December 18 blog update

After posting recent dead soybean videos, there has been much demand for more comments.

I appreciate the interest, but I also need to balance what I post and what I send out to VIP clients
that are counting on an "edge" for their business.


I am here in Goiania, Goias. This season we have had "3" decent rain events. They came as thunderstorms.
Everyday is a blue, sunny sky like we are in the middle of the dry season. For soybeans that have received some decent rains or have access to irrigation, this is paradise. Moisture in soil and sunny. Lots of energy, no disease, and deep roots. Each state in the Northern Arc has some spots like this.

Normally at this time of year, starting in early November, we tend have slow, sleepy, all day rains.
We do not have that anymore.

This bubble of HIGH pressure covers Mato Grosso, Goias, and MaPiToBa.
These regions encompass about 50% of Brazil´s soybean production.

We are now trying to figure out what loss factor to plug into this region.
5%,10%, 15% ???

On Monday, December 21, the first two soybean fields in Mato Grosso will be harvested.
Their yield will be 20-25 bu/ acre. 50% less than normal for super early soybeans.

The forecast this morning is for another 4 days of hot and dry before a chance of rain arrives
next week for the regions mentioned. Some forecasts call for 15 mm. Others are thinking 75 mm
for the coming week. Anyone who can get 75 mm next week will be very happy. Anyone who gets
15 mm or zero next week will need to clean out his pants.

In this upcoming period of late December and early January, we have " millions" of hectares of later
planted soybeans that will start grain fill. The rainfall in the coming days will be of epic importance.

I have heard reports of 65 bushel soy near Sinop that will now yield only 25-30/bu/acre because of recent dryness. What if this expands to the middle planted soy?

A friend of mine in Parana has applied fungicide three times to his soybeans. His soybeans are nice.
In the next two weeks, his soybeans will be in the bag so to speak. The lower leaves of his soybeans are covered in rust. He is worried about the later planted soy in his area. With the wet weather they have been having, there will be no way to stay ahead of the rust. Thus yield loss from normal is likely.

Yesterday on Ag TV Brazil, they interviewed a soybean analyst. He is thinking that by February we can see US$ 12.50 soybeans in Chicago. I started to cough and sputter. I am a mini bull at this point, but not that bullish.
This tells us the hype has started.

We have plenty of global supplies to chew through. We will not run out of soybeans. But the market has not factored in adequate weather premium into this Brazil crop.

We needed to get through the Argentine devaluation that was outlined in the Decmeber newsletter.
Thursday´s reversal now sets the stage for further gains in the near future.

9.00, 9.50? maybe 10 bucks yet? yes it is possible with a dry pattern continuing into January.

What to watch for:

There are forecasts for "three" (15 mm) events for Mato Grosso from Dec 21 until Dec 31.
If that is all that comes, katie bar the door.

If the core region can get 75 mm or about 3 inches in the near future, that will save some
potential. It will not reverse the damage to date, but it will buy some time for these guys.

15 mm or a 1/2 an inch will be nothing more than steam. It will help a soybean crop for a few
minutes, not days.

Merry Christmas to all


Friday, December 11, 2015

Crop tours etc

A few curious types have emailed me about a crop tour
the end of January or early February.

I am happy to do so if there is interest.

It is hard to get professionals all on the same page
as per a tour.

If you think this is of interest, I will introduce
you to others that are thinking of coming.

You guys figure it out and I will do the rest
once dates are agreed to.

It will be a long drawn out harvest.

January 15th all the way to April 15th.
even in the prime areas.

The BR 163 ag show is the end of March and I will be
there. Hotel rooms are a problem.

Dec 11 blog update Conab, weather, etc

I have sent out many updates this week to subscribers of stressed soybeans, farmer comments,
and some good fields too.

Conab starts the year out on an optimistic note.

One thing I do know, the soy crop will not be 102 mmt.

But even if we lose a few million tons here and there, the soy market
does not care this year.

I cannot help think but to myself if this were 2012-2013, when we had
super tight carryovers and the ships were waiting to load soybeans
in Paranagua in January.

What if we would have had a super El-nino then?
Soybeans would be moving 70 cents to a dollar per day
on the latest Brazilian weather forecast.

16 dollar soy? 20 dollar soy?

It makes me wonder.....

The past two weeks we get a 50 cent rally and give half of that back again.
No biggy

Southern Brazil is in great shape- probably too wet.
40% of the Brazil soy crop

The Northern 50% is under great stress.
Those beans filling pods now will not be much.

Those flowering this week and can get some rain in 10 days might
be fine yet.

Soybeans that have not seen rain in 40 days and are now crispy will
likley be abandoned and killed and then plant an early 2nd and only
crop of corn.

Those super young soybeans have some hope yet, but the Sun will work
against them later in the season. It is like planting soybeans the end of
June. What can we really expect out of those soybeans that will be harvested
in April?

The wild card will be the Dec 22nd rains that are in the forecast.

Those stressed soybeans that today are wilting and have a very deep root system.
Will they wake up, grow, flower, and set a bunch of pods in January?

We all know soybeans can fool us. If we look at vegetative index of Northern
Brazil, it looks like there will be a disaster....

The next 10 days of dry for those early planted soybeans are going to be tough.
50 bushel beans might turn into 30 yet.

Middle planted soy that looks like 30 bushel today might be 50 bushel yet in Janaury.

There are plenty of problem areas to keep an eye on the next 3 months.
But on the flip side, we have planted a record area of soybeans with
up to 60% of that area Intacta Pro soybeans which have a nice yield bump in them
if you give them a chance. i.e water !!!!!

This year will be one for the record books if Mato Grosso can pull off a decent
crop with 200 mm in Nov, 200 mm in Dec, and 200 mm in January.
600 mm during crop cycle when normally they would have received circa 1500 mm
during these three months.

Clay soils will be worth their weight in gold on years like this.

Sand will be very expensive ground this year.

When all this shakes out, I expect more and more land to be for sale
in the upcoming sales season.

The tide has gone out, let us see who was wearing a swim suit.

Happy Holidays


Thursday, December 3, 2015

December 3rd update

I will be back in office Sunday.

What I have noticed watching the satellite cloud loops is that
in the early evening there is a big poof in cloud development.
We see Red's in various spots in Brazil.

In Parana state this can mean 3-4 inches of rain.

The same Red in Goias and Mato Grosso means nothing.

We have thunder, some rumble, lightning, and maybe a few drops.

The GFS model is showing rain for Mato Grosso for mid- December.

Another forecast says no way- High and dry all the way into January.

Norwegian says UFFDA!!!!

Let us take this a day at at time.

Each day these soybeans need more and more water.

My soybean worry index is at "6".

By December 15th, it will likely be "7".

The vibe I get from producers is that:
It will rain, don't worry........

I ask myself what if it does not?

Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul are in great shape.
Some could say too wet.
Parana is on deck for 18 million tons of soy.
MGDS is on deck for 7 mmt.
(Almost in the bag)
Harvest in early January for them)

So 25 mmt of Brazil's 100 mmt are safe as per adequate moisture.

The other 70-75 mmt is still up for grabs and will be very late- historically speaking.

Mato Grosso was on deck to produce 29 mmt.
Not any more.
The problem is, as of today, we do not know what "Factor" to plug in for this
very historic weather event we are in. We simply do not have data to compare this too.

Western Cordoba in Argentina is floating in water.

Impeachment proceedings are starting in Brazil for her President.

Does this mean much in the near term?

Depending on votes and timing of various holidays and assuming an impeachment
vote in the "House" in 2016 sometime, that means Dilma steps down for up to
180 days while Senate hashes things over.

I fear that 2016 could be another "Zombie year" Thriller 2.0
A country without direction and trying to run out the clock.