Friday, December 11, 2015

Dec 11 blog update Conab, weather, etc

I have sent out many updates this week to subscribers of stressed soybeans, farmer comments,
and some good fields too.

Conab starts the year out on an optimistic note.

One thing I do know, the soy crop will not be 102 mmt.

But even if we lose a few million tons here and there, the soy market
does not care this year.

I cannot help think but to myself if this were 2012-2013, when we had
super tight carryovers and the ships were waiting to load soybeans
in Paranagua in January.

What if we would have had a super El-nino then?
Soybeans would be moving 70 cents to a dollar per day
on the latest Brazilian weather forecast.

16 dollar soy? 20 dollar soy?

It makes me wonder.....

The past two weeks we get a 50 cent rally and give half of that back again.
No biggy

Southern Brazil is in great shape- probably too wet.
40% of the Brazil soy crop

The Northern 50% is under great stress.
Those beans filling pods now will not be much.

Those flowering this week and can get some rain in 10 days might
be fine yet.

Soybeans that have not seen rain in 40 days and are now crispy will
likley be abandoned and killed and then plant an early 2nd and only
crop of corn.

Those super young soybeans have some hope yet, but the Sun will work
against them later in the season. It is like planting soybeans the end of
June. What can we really expect out of those soybeans that will be harvested
in April?

The wild card will be the Dec 22nd rains that are in the forecast.

Those stressed soybeans that today are wilting and have a very deep root system.
Will they wake up, grow, flower, and set a bunch of pods in January?

We all know soybeans can fool us. If we look at vegetative index of Northern
Brazil, it looks like there will be a disaster....

The next 10 days of dry for those early planted soybeans are going to be tough.
50 bushel beans might turn into 30 yet.

Middle planted soy that looks like 30 bushel today might be 50 bushel yet in Janaury.

There are plenty of problem areas to keep an eye on the next 3 months.
But on the flip side, we have planted a record area of soybeans with
up to 60% of that area Intacta Pro soybeans which have a nice yield bump in them
if you give them a chance. i.e water !!!!!

This year will be one for the record books if Mato Grosso can pull off a decent
crop with 200 mm in Nov, 200 mm in Dec, and 200 mm in January.
600 mm during crop cycle when normally they would have received circa 1500 mm
during these three months.

Clay soils will be worth their weight in gold on years like this.

Sand will be very expensive ground this year.

When all this shakes out, I expect more and more land to be for sale
in the upcoming sales season.

The tide has gone out, let us see who was wearing a swim suit.

Happy Holidays


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