Tuesday, December 9, 2014

It´s all about February weather from here on out......

Rains have been nice lately.

Back to normal one could say.

I was in southern Goias last week. The soybeans were so small compared
to last year at this time. They are a month behind normal.

There will be some early soy harvested in Mato Grosso and Parana
about January 1 - maybe 10% of the crop.

Very little of this soy will make it to port. Most will go to crushers
that have very attractive bids for early delivery.

Last week IMEA of Mato Grosso decreased their projected planted
area of 2nd crop corn by 400,000 ha.

This crop cycle comes down to February. If we have decent harvest
weather, Brazil can harvest a very nice soy crop and get a 2nd crop
corn in the ground and all will be OK.


If we have a 2 week rain even in February, katie bar the door.

Soybean harvest then gets pushed to 2nd half of February and
very little time to get projected area planted.

Even if producers push the envelope and plant until March 5 or the 10th,
their luck may run out this year.

The previous two crop cycles they have had rains into May.
This has generated record yields with GMO BT corn varieties.

The talk is to go back to conventional hybrids or RR only and
spray for insects as needed with chemicals.

Many will cut back on Nitrogen if they plant in late February.

There are big swings in production ahead. 10 million tons easily
in 2nd crop corn one way or another.

Soybeans at the moment look good but need time.

For the next two weeks, forecasts look good.

It is all about February !!!!!!!!!!!!  I repeat  FEB !!!!

Happy Holidays