Saturday, August 2, 2014

Productivity starts Monday in Brazil

I think we can sum up 2014 as the lost year for Brazil.

So much energy and resources were wasted gearing up for the
World Cup that everyone forgot to work this year.

The hot item in Brazil for 2014 was big screen TV´s.

I now go to discount stores and there are stacks of 40 and
50 inch TV´s being marked down.

Everyone forgot to buy cars, trucks, clothes washers, and
most everything else the past 7 months.

The industrial productivity in all sectors continue to wane.

School starts again Monday. Everyone is back from their
"winter" vacations and things will start to function again.

I told clients back in June, if you do not have an answer
from a governmental agency by June 5-10th, do not
look for one until August.

Between the World Cup interruptions and the normal
Winter break, many agencies simply do not function when the
boss is out on holiday with his family.

To further complicate things, we have an election on Oct 5th.

There are smoke signals on the horizon saying that the political
winds are about to change.

There two productive months for government to work- a little bit.

But if there is the certainty of a change of leadership, this could
cause more delays.

We have a new minister of Ag in Brazil. If President Dilma is
not re-elected, that means a whole new administration and
cabinet by January 1.

What does that mean for ag support programs, railroad projects,
funding for many projects??

It could mean a review of everything. It can mean a 6 month to
one year delay again on projects that were assumed approved.

I am all for change, but 2015 seems disruptive to me.

Lots of new faces and power plays that we have no idea how they
will manifest today.

It is political season. There will be many announcements for projects
here- there- and everywhere.

There will be last ditch attempts to try and buy this election and
remain in power.

It has been 12 years of power by PT party. If they lose, there will
be some dry heaves as the new power dynamic structures itself.

It makes for great drama, but terrible for getting anything done.

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