Sunday, January 19, 2014

Jan 20 comments and thoughts Brazil and AR

It has been awhile since I have posted.

It is holiday season in Brazil and people are running from
vacation spot to vacation spot.

I have been making plans to be in USA June and July this year.
We will visit Orlando and drive across the USA visiting family,
clients, and land marks along the way.

I was almost there for Dec and Jan this year.
With the minus 70 degree temps I have seen on the weather
maps in recent weeks, we are thankful that we did not go.

When I was young, I thought nothing of working when it was
minus 30 or minus 40 deg below zero.

I now have 5% Brazilian bio mixed in my blood.
I tend to "Gel" up as temps drop to about 40 deg F now.

I have been sending out almost daily updates to subscribers
as per yield talk, harvest progress, and tidbits about economy
and politics here.

There are many bean counters these days. Everyone seems to
be able to pull a production estimate out of their bum bum while
sitting in an office thousands of miles away. Their powers are
beyond my understanding.......

For the most part the soybean crop is very good.
The yields in Mato Grosso will be record high.

The early yields in western Parana have been a bit light.
Drought stress in December.

SW Goias looks to be losing about 1 million tons because
of drought.

Other areas are getting decent rains.

The news items about bugs, worms and Asian rust are all
non sense these days. Much to do about nothing.

This is not to say that they don´t exist, but at the end of the day
a farmers spends some money and the professional agronomists
get out their life sabers and deal with the dark side. I never doubt
a farmers ability to spray and the agronomists ability to find problems
to spray for.

Monsanto´s RRII Intacta seed is doing very well repelling the dark side
critters. Intacta will be planted in high volumes in 2015.

The week ahead looks rainy which will delay harvest a bit.

For the time being all seems calm and under control in Brazil.

My attention is on Argentina. With the dollar at 12:1 there and talk of
limiting certain items for sale in the super markets, I cannot help but think
that Argentina´s  economic and political days are numbered.

How this unfolds will likely affect strikes, soybean sales, soy crush,
energy, and ability of the market to nail down supplies of wheat,
soy and corn in coming months.

World Cup games start June 12th.

Brazil elections in Oct.

Last night I went to the "Wolf of Wallstreet". God I love that film.

It was a wild ride.

I sense Argentina might be in for something similar in coming months.