Sunday, December 21, 2014

Happy Holidays

Early soy harvest is nigh

Rains the past two weeks have been good.

We see some disease pressure here and there, but for the most
part a very nice crop is on the way.

There have been a few early soybean fields harvested under pivots
in Mato Grosso. 

The first 5% of the crop will be ready about January 5th-10th.
There will be a spurt of early harvest and then a 3-4 week gap.

February 1st will start a historic harvest logistically for Mato Grosso
and Parana. The amount of soybeans that need to be harvested, trucked,
dryed, and trucked again will be mind boggling. The ideal 2nd crop corn
window will be the first two weeks of February. After that, the yields will
start to decrease.

For much of the country the harvest will be in March and April this year.

A key point to continue to watch will be the Northeast quadrant.
There is 10 million tons + up there. If Brazil is to produce 95 mmt, it needs
to come from up there in April.
The region seems to have broken its drought pattern of the last two seasons,

Sao Paulo city is in need to copious amounts of rain if they are to have enough
water to make it through 2015.
The situation is much like that of California valleys. We are dealing with a multi-year

Conab is forecasting a bit of a drop for the 2015 sugarcane season.
Two years ago there was much investment in renovation of areas.
The drought pattern nipped that potential. It is very hard to recover from.

I disagree with Celeres optimistic Brazil corn crop forecast for 2015.
The stars need to align perfectly just to maintain par much less increase
year over year.

There is much talk of using non-BT corn varieties this season. This will
nip yield potential. The the caterpillars are already becoming immune to
the BT traits.

Thank you for all the renewals and vote of confidence recently.
It is truly appreciated.

Merry Christmas

Kory and Brazilintl team