Sunday, December 21, 2014

Happy Holidays

Early soy harvest is nigh

Rains the past two weeks have been good.

We see some disease pressure here and there, but for the most
part a very nice crop is on the way.

There have been a few early soybean fields harvested under pivots
in Mato Grosso. 

The first 5% of the crop will be ready about January 5th-10th.
There will be a spurt of early harvest and then a 3-4 week gap.

February 1st will start a historic harvest logistically for Mato Grosso
and Parana. The amount of soybeans that need to be harvested, trucked,
dryed, and trucked again will be mind boggling. The ideal 2nd crop corn
window will be the first two weeks of February. After that, the yields will
start to decrease.

For much of the country the harvest will be in March and April this year.

A key point to continue to watch will be the Northeast quadrant.
There is 10 million tons + up there. If Brazil is to produce 95 mmt, it needs
to come from up there in April.
The region seems to have broken its drought pattern of the last two seasons,

Sao Paulo city is in need to copious amounts of rain if they are to have enough
water to make it through 2015.
The situation is much like that of California valleys. We are dealing with a multi-year

Conab is forecasting a bit of a drop for the 2015 sugarcane season.
Two years ago there was much investment in renovation of areas.
The drought pattern nipped that potential. It is very hard to recover from.

I disagree with Celeres optimistic Brazil corn crop forecast for 2015.
The stars need to align perfectly just to maintain par much less increase
year over year.

There is much talk of using non-BT corn varieties this season. This will
nip yield potential. The the caterpillars are already becoming immune to
the BT traits.

Thank you for all the renewals and vote of confidence recently.
It is truly appreciated.

Merry Christmas

Kory and Brazilintl team

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

It´s all about February weather from here on out......

Rains have been nice lately.

Back to normal one could say.

I was in southern Goias last week. The soybeans were so small compared
to last year at this time. They are a month behind normal.

There will be some early soy harvested in Mato Grosso and Parana
about January 1 - maybe 10% of the crop.

Very little of this soy will make it to port. Most will go to crushers
that have very attractive bids for early delivery.

Last week IMEA of Mato Grosso decreased their projected planted
area of 2nd crop corn by 400,000 ha.

This crop cycle comes down to February. If we have decent harvest
weather, Brazil can harvest a very nice soy crop and get a 2nd crop
corn in the ground and all will be OK.


If we have a 2 week rain even in February, katie bar the door.

Soybean harvest then gets pushed to 2nd half of February and
very little time to get projected area planted.

Even if producers push the envelope and plant until March 5 or the 10th,
their luck may run out this year.

The previous two crop cycles they have had rains into May.
This has generated record yields with GMO BT corn varieties.

The talk is to go back to conventional hybrids or RR only and
spray for insects as needed with chemicals.

Many will cut back on Nitrogen if they plant in late February.

There are big swings in production ahead. 10 million tons easily
in 2nd crop corn one way or another.

Soybeans at the moment look good but need time.

For the next two weeks, forecasts look good.

It is all about February !!!!!!!!!!!!  I repeat  FEB !!!!

Happy Holidays