Sunday, April 13, 2014

Rains, April, Sugarcane, Econ

For mid- April, the rains have been strong in some spots.

Mato Grosso and Goias have had localized flooding. This will
sure help the 2nd crop corn make it too the finish line.

With 30% of the 2nd crop corn in Mato Grosso planted
after the ideal planting window, May rains will be paramount in order
for the crop to reach its potential.

Sugarcane harvest has started. Many mills will not be opening this
year due to continue financial troubles. Conab released their first
sugarcane crop size forecast this past week. When one looks
at the numbers, one has to ask What drought?
This is obviously the potential estimates for the crop.
With new data in coming months, the sugarcane crop will shrink
down to current estimates put out by various consultants.

The Brazil economy has my attention more so than normal.

Auto manufactures are starting to lay off workers. We have the
police evicting homeless people in Rio. We have inflation above
acceptable levels. We have a REAL that has gotten stronger while
it should be weakening, and Brazilian interest rates are on the increase.
Foreign money is coming in distorting reality and or a safe haven for
Russian dollars looking for a temporary home.

Throw in a national election in October and we have the makings
of a perfect storm - economic and political uncertainty. Add in a few
protests here and there we will have the making of a good movie.