Wednesday, February 10, 2021

Feb 10th blog update

 The slow harvest continues........

Steady as we go here. My son, David, graduated from BR high school while lying on the couch. He has applied to 10 different USA universities and we are in a wait and see mode. To date, he has received one approval from a college in St. Paul, MN. This was not his first choice but more of a backup college. 

I am not sure where the last 17 years have gone. It was just yesterday when it was common for me and him to go to Goiania shopping, watch a movie, grab some fries and Mcnuggets and call it day. He is now ready for the next step in his educational career. He is fluent in Portuguese and English. 

I am reminded of a closing scene in a TV program called "Everwood". I remember watching it and the TV show "House" with David on the weekends ten or more years ago.

The letter the mother wrote to her graduating son was very good I thought. I told myself, that this is what I would write to David when the time was right. 

"My dearest Ephram...

I've been sitting in our kitchen for the last half hour simply imagining you... wondering what you must be thinking right now... what you must be feeling.

How handsome you must look in your cap and gown.

If you're thinking about me...Stop! Send a kiss to the sky... And then focus your thoughts on what's coming towards you, not what you left behind.

I'm forever entwined in your past...your present...and your future. You needn't pause to look for me. I'm right here.

If you're feeling frightened about what comes next...Don't! Embrace the uncertainty. Allow it to lead you places. Be brave as it challenges you to exercise both your heart and your mind, as you create your own path towards happiness. Don't waste time with regret.

Spin wildly into your next action. Enjoy the present...each moment as it comes... because you'll never get another one quite like it.

And if you should ever look up and find yourself lost, simply take a breath and start over. Retrace your steps and go back to the purest place in your heart where your hope lives.

You'll find your way again.

Love, Mom."

I think in this time of Covid, we can all find ourselves lost. We think of things as they used to be. 
In Brazil, everyone hugs and kisses each other on a regular basis. Covid is really a shock to this culture. 

I am thankful for clients that have stayed with me for up to 17 years. The new demand lead rally that got going in November was a welcome change to the circa 3-year pause due to the USA/China trade war. 
To all the new subscribers, welcome. 

I pointed out in the newsletters that I thought the April 2020 low was a long term low. We need to be thinking of higher prices not lower. But, with that said, I did not think a 6 dollar rally was possible in a matter of weeks. 

In the February part IV newsletter, I showed the significance of the Jan 15th high of 12.03 basis Nov 21 soybeans. I hope clients made use of it. This does not mean we cannot go higher, but for the moment, we maybe take a little pause. 

The Brazil soybean crop is very late. I find it confusing how we have some thinking the crop is small such as 128 MMT and others that think the crop is getting bigger at 135 MMT. These 7 MMT are damn important when the USA is running on fumes. 
Conab comes out on Thursday, Feb 11th. 

On Brazil rural media, I found it interesting that a farmer out in Sapezal, MT has measured the lowest July to Dec 31st precipitation in his 40-year history on the land. It has never rained less than 650 mm or 26 inches of rain during this period. In 2020, he recorded 256 mm or 10.25 inches of rain. Rainfall picked up in January which saved his crop. On average, he says he will lose about 2 sacs per ha from last year's yield. Not bad- considering. 

Drop me a note if you would like a sample newsletter. I am not into free trials. I respect new VIP clients that step up to the bar and buy the elevated service level. I would be happy to provide references. 

Brazil is starting to get some vaccine. The old people are first and I see elderly people in nursing homes on the news screaming that they do not want it !!!! One 90-year-old lady said to a nurse after her shot,
Where is my beer? I should at least get a beer for going through this. I chuckled. 

Stay safe


Keywords: slow soy harvest, soy market, newsletter, lack of rainfall