Sunday, August 30, 2015

Sept 1 blog update

In a few more days producers will start planting soy in western Parana. A few days after that, circa Sept 10th, producers will start to plant soy in Mato Grosso. We have had a few sprinkles in Goiania. This is a bit early but a nice break from the heat. Dollar is trading 3.58:1. I think circa 30% of the 2016 Mato Grosso soybean crop has been priced at higher levels. The strong Dollar/Real realtionship protects Brasilian farmers from lower prices in Chicago. FX trumps CME at the moment. We need to watch legislation to see if 2nd crop planting of soy behind soy will be allowed in Parana and Mato Grosso. They want the no-plant window widened. If they can plant in early September, there will be time to harvest and still plant a 2nd crop soy and harvest it by the no-plant dates. If planting gets delayed, many producers will likely run out of time and plant 2nd crop corn. Last year 700,000 ha were planted to a 2nd crop soybeans which bumped the national production upwards. These will be the swing hectares that will determine if Brasil produces 96/97 mmt in 2016 or the national total rubs up against 100 mmt. El Nino will likely keep us on the edge of our seat during Christmas in one local or another. It will likely be too dry in one region and too wet in another. This may affect 1 or 2 million tons of potential again. Fertilizer sales are said to be 3-4% lower than last year. This is odd since area is said to increase by 3%+ this year again. Could this affect productivity at the end of the day? Intacta II soybean area will likely be 35-40% of the total area in Brasil. These varieties have been yielding very well the previous two seasons. This technology is increasing the trend line yields in Parana and Mato Grosso. Instead of 52 sacs per ha, the average is now closer to 55 sacs per ha. Newsletter subscribers and VIP clients will be the first to know as current events unfold this crop year. Drop me a note if you have any questions. Kory