Friday, October 10, 2014

Hot and dry, 2nd round elections, and re-planting of soybeans on deck

What a week.

Brazil had its first round elections. The pro-business candidate Aecio Neves came from
a distant 3rd place to formidable 2nd place competitor.

It has the current power structure on high alert.

At this time, it is a 50/50 toss up who will win.
It reminds me of the George Bush II and Al Gore election.
A few votes will likely determine this one too.

The weather has gone bonkers here too. Normally the dry season
ends by now and we have daily rains.

It is normal for the Eastern states to remain dry a bit longer.
Planting soy in November as a single crop is the norm.

But Mato Grosso, what a shocker. Pop corn fart dry this week.
The forecast is for another 6 to 10 days dry then some rains.

Friends of mine have 3200 ha of soybeans planted of 14,000.
They have stopped planting waiting for more rains.

They are watching the development of recently planted soy.
They are worried that re-planting will be necessary.
Do it again !!!!!

Some say two more days dry, re-plant.

This is really screwing up the plans of producers that plan on
an early soy harvest in January and plant cotton and corn behind.

With the main soy areas being planted circa November in Mato Grosso,
it makes a 2nd crop almost impossible or at the very least very very high risk.

I have not seen this weather scenario manifest in the 13 years I have been
watching Mato Grosso.  This one is different. We have seen dry spells,
but nothing quite like this one.

We are off to an erratic start. Too wet down South. Wheat scab hurting the
crops in Parana and RGDS. Too dry in North and way too hot.
Up to 120 deg F at times.

I will monitor the situation.

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