Saturday, December 1, 2018

Dec 1 blog update

Happy Holidays from Brazil

2018 is coming to an end. From my perspective it cannot
come soon enough. The year has flown by, but jumping from
crisis to crisis all year gets old.

I have been in Mato Grosso and Sao Paulo states the past two weeks.
The crop looks great.

The week ahead looks wet. I am sure we will start to hear about
rust issues  etc. Most will apply 3 or 4 fungicide applications.

I do not lose any sleep over rust. Brazil farmers are too good at what
they do to worry about that.

The new President and Admin will take office Jan 1.
Many are optimistic about the start of 2019.

The soybean crop will be big as will the 2nd crop corn.
Sugarcane crop looks stable for 2019 but with a switch
back to more sugar than ethanol production.

Machinery sales should be good again in 2019.

As I write this, we will all be waiting for a tweet from Trump
sometime Saturday night. With all the option activity this past week,
Sunday night proves to be a big move.

A gap higher, we could say the lows are in and we have a market again.

A gap lower, then I fear we have another leg lower to go and we need to
find some sort of capitulation this winter to discourage soybean production.

A deal in early 2019 would not be good for Brazil farmer. Port premiums have
already retraced and would likely decrease even further. If the USA would start selling
beans again at peak harvest pressure for Brazil farmer, things could get ugly here in a
hurry if the Dollar:Real would revert back to 3.30 instead of 3.80:1.

Dollar at 3.85:1 is a life insurance policy for BR farmer for the medium term.
Jan thru March.

Are we 50-60 cents higher next week or 50-60 cents lower.
This will set the tone for the next few months I think.

USDA production reports in January. USA crop insurance guarantee pricing
in Feb. March 31 planting intentions and a 500 million or a 1 billion
bushel carryover. PNW freight pricing and storage space at ports?
Booking of ocean freight?

This is starting to look like a multi-year issue to chew through all of this.
A private BR consultant is at 125 mmt for BR with outside chance of 129 mmt
of soybeans. Uff-Da
The drought year 3 years ago we were at 95 mmt.
I would have never thought we could be at 130 mmt so quickly.

Many Many moving parts. I do my best with info from China, ARG, BR, and USA

Look for a few early soybeans to be ready about Dec 25th.(cotton ground)
The next block will be ready Jan 5th. By Jan 15th, Parana and MT will be in
full harvest mode.

Drop me a note if you are interested in becoming a subscriber at one of the
levels listed on my site.

Happy New Year to all,


Keywords: BR soy, prices, rust, G-20, Trump Tweet, soy gaps

* I will send out special Conab highlights report Dec 11th.