Friday, February 24, 2017

Feb 24 blog crop size, rains and Carnival

It now looks like the Brazil soy crop is at least 104/105 mmt.

What looked like the ceiling is now a floor.

Rain makes grain.

I do feel that the numbers coming out this week above 107 mmt
and talk of a 110 mmt are getting close to irrational exhuberance.

The NE and RGDS benefitted much from the recent rains.

I still must caution that planted area of soy could be a late
season surprise that could pull the final production tally down a bit.

We are working with a + 500,000 ha YoY increase in planted area.
That may very well be true.

But, depending on the final tally of 1st crop corn production and
planted area, we could drop soy area down a tad.

Also, Parana, MGDS, Goias, MT, MG, and SP all have a ban on 2nd crop
planted area of soybeans. In years past, this has been as much as 400,000 ha
nationally. This has helped push the production higher.
RGDS still has 2nd crop soy as it is planted after wheat.
But, it still is only the one crop of soy per year. It just gets planted
into January and acts like a 2nd crop.

Whatever the final tally, Brazil has record soy crop hands down.

Increased fertilizer usage, more use of Intacta genetics, and precision
ag combined with normal to even above normal rainfall helped Brazil
rebound from last year´s set back.

Mato Grosso has a phenomenal soy crop. Recent rainy weather has caused some
losses to accrue. A few hundred thousand tons have been been lost due to seed burn,
mold, and sprouting issues. I am not sure if we subtract from 31 mmt or maybe at one time
32 mmt. 9.3 M ha X 3.5 tons/ha =  32 mmt+.
It seems like everyone had at least 60 sacs per ha soy.

Transport is the big issue. Mud - mud and more mud. Beans are trying to go north
but hundreds of trucks are stranded in Para state. It was forecast that 9 million tons
could have been shipped north to Amazon this year for both soy and corn.
With conditions like this and a return to normal rainfall patterns, this is now in question.

The plus side of the drought last year was cheap freight and good road conditions.
Today we have the flip side.

This means more grain will likely be routed to Santos and Paranagua.

Carnival the next few days in Brazil. In March, Brazil will come back to life.

We have talk of opening up BR land to foreigners again. Let us see what the details
will be. I have been waiting for this day since August 2010. This is when they slammed
the brakes on foreign investment and the start of Brazil´s demise into political and economic
no man´s land. It is time for a new cycle to begin.

If the government would not have interrupted things back in 2010, we would not
be dealing with the logistical questions yet today as per roads and railroads.
(At least to a lesser extent than we see today)

The global powers are trying to find out a workable solution to the new world
we find ourselves in. China cannot get caught with her pants off as per protein needs
over the next decade. Brazil does not want to give up national sovereignty to other
country´s that want to suck her dry and call her dusty. Meanwhile, USA is pounding
the nationalistic drum so the whole world can hear it. Listen to ME !!!!!!

Bottom line to all of this is that China is working on a 50 year plan.
USA is looking 3 to 6 months ahead.
Brazil does not have plan.

How do we get these three capital and food producing powerhouses on the
same page so none of them feel taken advantage of?

China wants to help with BR infrastructure. Let them.
Let BR farmers produce the grain that they do so well.
Let China help ship it via rail and port systems.
Let USA supply cheap capital and precision ag products so we can
produce more with less area and, in theory, it will be a win win win for
everyone and the environment also.

Happy Carnival

Kory






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  16. HOW I SUCCESSFULLY GOT MY XMAS LOAN.

    Hello, my name is Janice Erwin from Walworth NY, and I am happily married with family. For some months now I have suffered financial setback and needed to refinance as my bills were long due for payment. I tried seeking loans from various loan firms both corporate and private but all without success, the banks I visited all declined my credit. But as God would favor me, I was introduced to Unamay Loan Finance Ltd for their Xmas loan program, with contact number +1(858)299-1101 a Private limited Company with Share Capital, and I was granted an Xmas loan sum of $68,000.00 on the 8th of November 2017. Today my financial status is restored and my business is now stabilized. Thanks Renee for introducing me to Unamay Loan Finance Ltd, and to you Mr Christopher Kennedy for helping me. He is a good man and I pray that God richly bless him for helping me. My advice to anyone out there in need of a loan of any kind is to quickly Contact them today via email: unamayloanfinance@outlook.com or unamayloanfinanceltd@financier.com.

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  17. WELCOME TO BETTERMENT FUNDINGS {bettermentfunding@gmail.com}

    our aims is to provide Excellent Professional Service.

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  18. Do you need a loan to start up business or to pay your bills and a corporate financial for real estate and any kinds of business financing. ( Leonard peterson Loans ) We also offer Loans to individuals,Firms and corporate bodies at 3% interest rate. We give out loan to serious minded people that are interested of loan if interested contact this email: leonardpcashloan@gmail.com

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  19. FINANCIAL BREAKTHROUGH

    Life indeed is GRACE, I'am Daan Sophia currently in California USA. I would like to share my experience with you guys on how I got a loan of $185,000.00 USD to clear my bank draft and start up a new business. It all started when i lost my home and belongings due to the bank draft I took to offset some bills and some personal needs. I became so desperate and began to seek for funds at all means. Luckily for me I heard a colleague of mine talking about this company, I got interested although i was scared of being scammed, I was compelled by my situation and had no choice than to seek advise from my friend regarding this very company and was given their contact number, getting intouch with them really made me skeptical due to my past experience with online lenders, little did i know this very Company "PROGRESSIVE LOAN INC. was a godsent to me and my family and the entire Internet World, this company has been of great help to me and some of my colleague and today am a proud owner of well organized business and responsibilities are well handled all thanks to Josef Lewis of (progresiveloan@yahoo.com).. So if really you are genuinely in need of a loan either to expand or start up your own business or in any form of financial difficulty, i advise you give Mr Josef Lewis of Progressive loan the opportunity of financial upliftment in your life Email: progresiveloan@yahoo.com OR Call/Text +1(603) 786-7565 and not fall victim of online scam in the name of getting a loan. thanks



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  20. Good day friends, I am so happy I got my loan from Mr Steven Ryan Finance, I saw recommendation on TV that Mr Steven Ryan grants business loan, personal loans, mortgage loans, debt consolidation loans and more so I emailed him via(Stevenryanfinance@gmail.com) you can also email him if you need a loan okay.

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  21. Hello friends i've been reluctant in purchasing this blank ATM card i heard about online because everything seems too good to be true, but i was convinced & shocked when my friend at my place of work got the card from ghost hackers & we both confirmed it really works, without delay i gave it a go. Ever since then I've been withdrawing $5000 daily from the card & the money has been in my own account. So glad i gave it a try at last & this card has really changed my life financially without getting caught, its real & truly works though its illegal but made me rich!! If you need this card from real hackers then here is their Email : noraatm@gmail.com

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  22. Hello Viewers

    This is Oceanic-finance we offer loans to individuals and companies around the world, we are registered and licensed loan company, Do you need a loan to pay your bills? do you need a loan to start up business ? do you need a loan to buy an apartment? we offer all kinds of loans, if you are interested in getting a loan of any kind simply Email: Oceanicfinance113@gmail.com or whats-app: +1(267)725-7570

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  23. HOW I BECAME A VICTOR AFTER SO MANY FAILED ATTEMPT OF GETTING A LOAN.

    I feel so blessed and fulfilled. I've been reluctant in applying for a loan i heard about online because everything seems too good to be true, but i was convinced & shocked when my friend at my place of work got a loan from Progresive Loan INC. & we both confirmed it and i also went ahead to apply, today am a proud owner of my company and making money for my family and a happy mom. Well i'm Annie Joe by name from Pauls Valley, Oklahoma. As a single mom with three kids it was hard to get a job that could take care of me and my kids and I had so much bills to pay and to make it worst I had bad credit so i couldn't obtain a loan from any bank. I had an ideal to start a business as an hair stylist but had no capital to start, Tried all type of banks but didn't work out until I was referred by my co-worker to a godsent lender advertising to give a loan at 2% interest rate. I sent them a mail using their official email address (progresiveloan@yahoo.com) and I got a reply immediately and my loan was approved, and I was directed to the Bank site where I withdrawed my loan directly to my account. To cut the story short am proud of my hair stylist company and promise to testify to the world how my life was transformed.. If you are in need of any kind of loan, i advise you contact Progresive Loan INC and be financially lifted Email: progresiveloan@yahoo.com OR Call/Text +1(603) 786-7565



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