January 9 blog update

Rains have come, now what?

Early yields in Mato Grosso are from 19 to 49 sacs/ha.
17 to 43.5 bu/acre

What do we do with that info? 1% harvested

Many say they have 60 sac soybeans to harvest end of January and early Feb.
I am sure there will be some.

I look at it like this.

Mato Grosso, in a normal year, is 80% good to excellent all the time.
20% has a drought issue or too much rain at harvest or some such issue.

This year, that is inverted.

80% of the state had problems at some point or another and 20% of the
state was good to excellent.

"Some are still planting" !!!! This is like planting soybeans in July.
Northern hemisphere

I will do my personal tour and report to my subscriber list directly.
I do not plan to post much here in the coming weeks.

Early Parana yields are not good. About 19% less than last year same field basis.
1% harvested
Test weight is the issue- there was no Sun thus no photosynthesis.
Later soy is being attacked by rust. If you used tier one fungicides such as Elatus,
(Syngenta product)you are OK. If you used older, cheaper fungicides,
the rust is breaking through.

Conab crop report will tell the tale on who has been naughty and nice.

December Conab started with 102.5 mmt.

If they drop only 1 mmt on Tuesday, the Brazil soy crop will be big.
Congrats to those who were not swayed by drought talk and images.

I personally expect them to cut production to sub-100 mmt and stand pat
for 1 or 2 months until more data comes in.

It will be a long drawn out harvest. We will have data coming in yet in May.

I will be traveling a lot the next 7 weeks. Mato Grosso twice and Rio Grande
do Sul also.

I will be directing my reports to subscribers only in the near future.
100% renewal rate for 2016 and many new subscribers also.
Many have been with me 10 years now. I do appreciate it.

It is time to spin the soybean roulette wheel:

Red or Black?

Red 99 or Black 101 ;>)

or maybe "snake eyes" is the better analogy
Craps- We are all wrong !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!