There has been much in the news lately. Many things have been spun
as a positive development, but if one looks at bigger picture,
it is a sign of the times and in many cases a "House of Cards."
The vote in the Senate to remove President Dilma while the impeachment
trial starts will happen on May 11th. At this time, it looks like she
will step down for a bit. She could call for new elections and interrupt
this process, but she remains defiant.
Today, the Supreme Court ruled that the Speaker of the House step down
on corruption charges. He hid a few million in Switzerland. We have known
about this since late 2015. One must ask why this ruling came after the
impeachment vote in the House three weeks ago. Would the vote have been
different three weeks ago if he was charged prior?
We have news tonight that Senator Blario Maggi might be the new
Secretary of AG if Temer, the Vice President, assumes office next
week.
All of this is happening while the Olympic flame is making its rounds
through Goias state and Brazil in the coming weeks. People are standing in
line waiting for H1N1 vaccine to show up and yet the Olympic facade progresses.
I talk to business owners and they tell me their traffic is down 50% and their
costs are up 30% in recent months. Rent, water, energy, taxes, gas, labor
are all higher. Many are fit to be tied.
Farmers in Goias state are extremely worried. It has not rained in over a month.
It looks like dry season has kicked in. Brazil weather guy says no rain in the
Cerrado until into October. When it does start to rain, it will rain steady.
Ranchers are already liquidating cattle herds. What will it be by September?
Dead pastrure, fires, lack of water are all very much on deck in coming months.
Chickens are coming to slaughter light. All a sign of lack of feed.
Corn prices are at record high prices in domestic currency. Soybeans are
at or near their record highs.
If one reads the headlines this week in Brazil, one would assume the
2nd crop corn is 50% gone. This is not the case on a national basis.
But in some states like Goias, Eastern Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais,
parts of Mato Grosso do Sul , Sao Paulo and Northern part of Parana,
this is very much the case. 50% shot.
Much of this corn is pre-booked for export. Many of these orders
need to be canceled and originate from USA. The kicker is much of
Brazil corn goes to Middle East. Will Iran want corn from the
Infidel´s? Not sure..... If I were Muslim, I would buy all the corn
I could before the Trumper says I can´t have any.
This dovetails into the Chinese purchase of a Mato Grosso grain
merchandiser. Is it as simple as opportunity presented itself and
a willing buyer found a willing seller? or is there more to it?
Yes, the grain merchandiser is going through a restructuring.
Yes, the Chinese have tried for years to buy land, build soy
crushers, railroads, ethanol mills, and buy soy direct. All efforts
have failed. They could not find a dance parter. Now they have access
to direct soy, port access, and in the future- rail service.
I cannot help but think that Trumps recent rise to top of Republican
ticket has sped up their decision to enter the Brazilian and Argentine
markets with gusto. They need access to protein in the future irregardless
of trade issues with USA. There are too many unknowns in the new political
environment we live in. It is time to hedge some bets and put our money
where are mouths are- quite literally. The new China/Brazilian/Gaucho
marriage will be interesting to watch. The Chinese do not like Polka
and Gaucho´s don´t eat Chinese. However, in my own experience, I have found
that a 1/3 Japanese/ 1/3 Italian/ 1/3 Brazilian female to be near
"Perfection". Trumper would approve
Where is all this going?
IMEA earlier in the week threw me and many others a curve ball.
They have been using satellite imagry to measure corn area in
Mato Grosso. They found an extra 500,000 hectares producing
an extra 6 million tons of corn from "last year´s crop".
They then added another 200,000 ha to the 2016 crop.
This is a 700,000 hectare swing from year to year from
what we thought the state´s baseline was.
With the two years combined, they "found" an extra 9 million
tons of corn even with the drought conditions to date !!!!
If we look back to last year´s record exports, we can kinda start
to believe that this data is on the right track.
With domestic consumption+ last year´s exports = more than
the country produced last year.
So thus, yes, Mato Grosso must have produced more corn in 2015
than we previously thought possible. Was it 26 million tons?
Do we really start subtracting from 26 million tons for the
2016 crop that is shrinking each day?
The kicker with this new data is that it cuts both ways.
Let us assume Mato Grosso did plant 4.2 million ha of
2nd crop corn for 2016. Let us assume an average yield
of 5.5 tons/ha. This = 23 mmt.
Last year the avg yield was 6.5 mmt. Thank you GMO technology !!!
But, the more area we plant, that means even more hectares were
planted outside the ideal planting window which is said to be as high
as 25% of the area. 1 million ha could yield zero.
1 million X 5.5 = 5.5 million cut from which number?
26 or 23 mmt?
Before this analysis came out, we were using 3.5 M ha and 5.5 tons/ha
for a 19.5 mmt crop. This seemed reasonable to me.
Take 20% off for drought and we stabilize at 16 mmt +/-.
But now if we take 5.5 million off of a 26 mmt potential,
we still have a 20 mmt crop as if there was no drought at all!!!!!
Mato Grosso befuddles me with corn. When 700,000 ghost hectares
are "just found" and yields always tend to come in higher than
expected, one must just sit back and watch the show here.
Soybeans are much easier to estimate than corn- assuming you have good data.
For the nation, I an a believer in the sub- 50 mmt club. It is bad.
But in the future, we will need to be ready for 30 mmt MT corn crop and
60+ mmt national 2nd corn crop as the new norms.
However you slice things going into fall of 2016, it looks like
Brazil corn price will remain above historic avg.
In the May newsletter I outlined where the acreage switch
has come from in recent years from 1st corn to soy.
Many assume that all expansion in recent years from 24 M ha to 33 M ha
has come from Brazil expanding in new areas. This is simply
not true.
I believe that in the last two years, Brazil has, in essence,
"blown her wad" on soybean area expansion.
1. no more 2nd crop soy i.e. late planted soy soy/soy for 2017- illegal
2. switch from soy to 1st crop corn up to 2 million ha
(am I predicting this today?- no- but potential exists)
3. Many big farms are in bankruptcy or in a restructuring phase
4. Many medium sized farms only harvested 35-40 bu/acre soy this past year.
(they made no money)
5. MaPiToBa region just harvested their 4th drought crop in a row
(This one was the worst) major losses and bleeding taking place
(Farmers in MaPiToBa and Mato Grosso will be hesitant to plant more sandy areas into soy)
6. Higher interest rates
7. uncertain political future and FX stability- in the end all speculation
8. Livestock sector in need of huge volumes of corn to stabilize the domestic market.
9. Soy high cost of production, but likely to be a bit cheaper than last season.
(Fertilizer has helped cut costs lately)
10. Mato Grosso and Para rate of increase cannot out pace the other switching
11. lack of quality soybean seed in Southern Brazil- too much rain at harvest-
(incentivizes switch to 1st crop corn)
I will be watching this in coming months.
Much of this will be determined by the USA crop.
Can we trade 4.25 corn?
Can we trade US$ 11.00 soy
If late start to Brazil planting in Oct, how does this change things?
If we flip to La-Nina- Southern Brazil and ARG flip to drought.
Ideal conditions for Cerrado
Does China really need 84 mmt tons?
What if Brazil soy crop drops to 96 mmt or the same as last year?
Brazil runs out of soy by December.....
What if soybean prices in USA are US$ 7.00 by Oct?
What if FX is 4:1 and corn is still gold in Brazil this fall?
Could Brazil switch more than 2 million ha back to 1st corn?
Nothing boring about Brazil.
Things keep changing- that is a given here.
Throw in some Trump curve balls or a USA August
drought, we will have ourselves a soybean Olympics yet.
;>)
Enjoy
Thank you all
Kory
* Drop me a note if you want to subscribe or
get on the VIP list.
We will figure something out that works for you.
agturbobrazil@yahoo.com
Friday, May 6, 2016
Tuesday, April 12, 2016
Sunday´s vote- more than just politics- could be soybean paradigm shift- long term
I am sure many reading this and watching the international media coverage of
Brazil´s impeachment vote must think everyone in Brazil is nuts. I sure would
if I was on the outside looking in. I am sure those same readers think that
Sunday´s vote has nothing to do with me. For those who think Trump will
"Make America Great Again", need not read any further. Go elsewhere.
Kim Kardashian has some new nude photos posted. They are much more interesting.
I will start by saying that it is impossible to predict anything in the near future
for Brazil governance. More than likely the next 6 months will look like making pizza
than anything else. Sunday´s vote is just the beginning, it is not the end of anything
or anyone.
Sunday´s vote by the House of Representatives is basically putting Dilma in the
penalty box for up to 6 months. Dilma/PT could survive this yet. It could happen Sunday,
it could happen in the Senate, it could happen via Supreme Court, it could happen
in 6 months once a final vote is made.
The final vote count is set for Sunday evening. It is HOT and DRY in Brasilia.
Hundreds of thousands of people are set to be camped out there pro and against
impeachment by Sunday. People will be thirsty, hot, some drunken, and tempers could
flare at any sign of unfairness. Even if Police and Military control things on site,
there is nothing stopping people from turning to the streets and vandalizing the city or
government buildings. Where does the losing side expel their energy Sunday?
Where and what form does the orgasm come in? Passions are running high on both
sides. As the Rolling Stones would say "I can´t get no satisfaction"
If I were looking at Brazil from the outside, I would wonder how the hell can this
country produce 100 mmt of soy, 85 mmt of corn and 630 mmt of sugarcane? One must
understand that Brazil Ag is an Oasis in a vast wasteland of Brazil politics.
It is the only sector holding the country together- by a thread.
The Brazil ag potential is staggering if it were allowed to run free, be taxed less,
and have decent infrastructure.
This is where my blog is going tonight. I am looking at three possible outcomes
of the current political and economic mess. One of the three is status quo.
Not much of anything changes. Two more years of fog and we limp along.
Depending on the Person(s) and government that replace this one, we could look
back in two years and wish that was the case. We will look back at old days and say
that was not so bad.
Staus quo case
Dilma holds on to power by a thin margin vote- be it Sunday or 6 months from now-
markets and FX react violently. The Dollar/Real moves from 3.50:1 to 4.30:1 in
a few days. Talk of 5:1 in near future. Business gives up and throws in the towel.
More stimulus and help for poor. Brazil prints more money and burns foreign reserves.
Foreign investment disappears. Inflation is rampant. Brazil soy farmer encouraged
to plant everything to soybeans. Soybean prices collapse in time affecting USA
farmer in long run. Two more years go by with not much change.
Extreme case #1
Dilma is impeached and Supreme court decides that new elections will be held in
60 days. Keep in mind this could be 6 months from now after a trial and final vote.
In other words, late 2016 elections.
New candidates position themselves in coming months. Some old candidates rise to the
top mainly because of name recognition, public trust, and calm the PT party down.
A possible candidate is Marina Silva. She is known as the environmentalist.
If she would come to power as a default candidate, this would wreak havoc on
Brazil agriculture to epic proporations. All land expansion would stop.
Strick enforcement of current Forest Code and burdensome fines for producers
not in compliance. Belo Monte Dam project shut down immediately. This limits
Brazil´s long term energy growth. Energy prices continue to increase. Inhibits
maufacturing and GDP. Brazil ag area would likely start to contract. Production would
start to decrease. Production would switch to Argentina with pro-growth government.
China would react in fear because Brazil is the only country that can surge to
meet their protein demands in the coming 10-20 years. Brazil would become the
ODD MAN out in the world. Tree huggers would love us and everyone else would
come to see the alligators and panthers. Brazil Ag would start to die.
Boon for Argentina and American/East European farmer.
Extreme case #2
This is probably the one I would prefer. Dilma is impeached. A new government
is installed. A pro-business, pro investment candidate rises to the challenge.
Who that is today? I have no idea.
Limits on foreign ownership of land are incrased to 100,000 ha +.
Foreign investment is encouraged. Brazil market is opened up to the
world. The REAL strengthens. This is a short term head wind for ag,
but with renewed sources of credit and Brazil economy growing
again, prices adjust and ag works through this short term head wind
for the long term goal of better markets, infrastructure, and competitive
advantage long term. This is what the modern dynamic Brazil farmer wants.
Are there other possible scenarios? sure
I wrote this blog to help better educate the American producer that yes, Sunday´s
vote will affect him at some point. It is an inflection point for Brazil.
If they get it right, as per Argentina´s recent "Ag Renaissance", Brazil´s
best day´s are ahead of her yet. I am optimistic yet. But, if they get this
wrong and we start to look like Venezuela, the phrase " God is Brasilian" can
be changed to "God help us All."
I repeat, Sunday´s vote is not the end but the Beginning. The beginning
of a process that will make many want to vomit.
This vote will go down in history as the vote that changed Brazil for the
better or for the worse 10 years from now. And the form of the new government
will likely dictate soybean fundamentals for years to come as a result of the
law of unintended consequences kicking in at some point.
I am working on a new newsletter. It will feature the switching of 1st crop
corn to soybeans in Brazil since 2008. Now with FX gone wild, and Brazil exporting
all its corn and at the same time as a drought in the Cerrado, we will likely see
the reverse happen in 2016/2017. The southern livestock growers need more corn
earlier in the season. Mato Grosso is pushing corn out the Amazon and inverting
the normal flow of things even with record crops.
The point is, we can soon see a scenario where Brazil soy area starts to
shrink in near term. Details in next newsletter.
Enjoy Brazil Super Bowl Sunday !!!
It might not be football, but the emotions will be running high on Sunday
Kory
Brazil´s impeachment vote must think everyone in Brazil is nuts. I sure would
if I was on the outside looking in. I am sure those same readers think that
Sunday´s vote has nothing to do with me. For those who think Trump will
"Make America Great Again", need not read any further. Go elsewhere.
Kim Kardashian has some new nude photos posted. They are much more interesting.
I will start by saying that it is impossible to predict anything in the near future
for Brazil governance. More than likely the next 6 months will look like making pizza
than anything else. Sunday´s vote is just the beginning, it is not the end of anything
or anyone.
Sunday´s vote by the House of Representatives is basically putting Dilma in the
penalty box for up to 6 months. Dilma/PT could survive this yet. It could happen Sunday,
it could happen in the Senate, it could happen via Supreme Court, it could happen
in 6 months once a final vote is made.
The final vote count is set for Sunday evening. It is HOT and DRY in Brasilia.
Hundreds of thousands of people are set to be camped out there pro and against
impeachment by Sunday. People will be thirsty, hot, some drunken, and tempers could
flare at any sign of unfairness. Even if Police and Military control things on site,
there is nothing stopping people from turning to the streets and vandalizing the city or
government buildings. Where does the losing side expel their energy Sunday?
Where and what form does the orgasm come in? Passions are running high on both
sides. As the Rolling Stones would say "I can´t get no satisfaction"
If I were looking at Brazil from the outside, I would wonder how the hell can this
country produce 100 mmt of soy, 85 mmt of corn and 630 mmt of sugarcane? One must
understand that Brazil Ag is an Oasis in a vast wasteland of Brazil politics.
It is the only sector holding the country together- by a thread.
The Brazil ag potential is staggering if it were allowed to run free, be taxed less,
and have decent infrastructure.
This is where my blog is going tonight. I am looking at three possible outcomes
of the current political and economic mess. One of the three is status quo.
Not much of anything changes. Two more years of fog and we limp along.
Depending on the Person(s) and government that replace this one, we could look
back in two years and wish that was the case. We will look back at old days and say
that was not so bad.
Staus quo case
Dilma holds on to power by a thin margin vote- be it Sunday or 6 months from now-
markets and FX react violently. The Dollar/Real moves from 3.50:1 to 4.30:1 in
a few days. Talk of 5:1 in near future. Business gives up and throws in the towel.
More stimulus and help for poor. Brazil prints more money and burns foreign reserves.
Foreign investment disappears. Inflation is rampant. Brazil soy farmer encouraged
to plant everything to soybeans. Soybean prices collapse in time affecting USA
farmer in long run. Two more years go by with not much change.
Extreme case #1
Dilma is impeached and Supreme court decides that new elections will be held in
60 days. Keep in mind this could be 6 months from now after a trial and final vote.
In other words, late 2016 elections.
New candidates position themselves in coming months. Some old candidates rise to the
top mainly because of name recognition, public trust, and calm the PT party down.
A possible candidate is Marina Silva. She is known as the environmentalist.
If she would come to power as a default candidate, this would wreak havoc on
Brazil agriculture to epic proporations. All land expansion would stop.
Strick enforcement of current Forest Code and burdensome fines for producers
not in compliance. Belo Monte Dam project shut down immediately. This limits
Brazil´s long term energy growth. Energy prices continue to increase. Inhibits
maufacturing and GDP. Brazil ag area would likely start to contract. Production would
start to decrease. Production would switch to Argentina with pro-growth government.
China would react in fear because Brazil is the only country that can surge to
meet their protein demands in the coming 10-20 years. Brazil would become the
ODD MAN out in the world. Tree huggers would love us and everyone else would
come to see the alligators and panthers. Brazil Ag would start to die.
Boon for Argentina and American/East European farmer.
Extreme case #2
This is probably the one I would prefer. Dilma is impeached. A new government
is installed. A pro-business, pro investment candidate rises to the challenge.
Who that is today? I have no idea.
Limits on foreign ownership of land are incrased to 100,000 ha +.
Foreign investment is encouraged. Brazil market is opened up to the
world. The REAL strengthens. This is a short term head wind for ag,
but with renewed sources of credit and Brazil economy growing
again, prices adjust and ag works through this short term head wind
for the long term goal of better markets, infrastructure, and competitive
advantage long term. This is what the modern dynamic Brazil farmer wants.
Are there other possible scenarios? sure
I wrote this blog to help better educate the American producer that yes, Sunday´s
vote will affect him at some point. It is an inflection point for Brazil.
If they get it right, as per Argentina´s recent "Ag Renaissance", Brazil´s
best day´s are ahead of her yet. I am optimistic yet. But, if they get this
wrong and we start to look like Venezuela, the phrase " God is Brasilian" can
be changed to "God help us All."
I repeat, Sunday´s vote is not the end but the Beginning. The beginning
of a process that will make many want to vomit.
This vote will go down in history as the vote that changed Brazil for the
better or for the worse 10 years from now. And the form of the new government
will likely dictate soybean fundamentals for years to come as a result of the
law of unintended consequences kicking in at some point.
I am working on a new newsletter. It will feature the switching of 1st crop
corn to soybeans in Brazil since 2008. Now with FX gone wild, and Brazil exporting
all its corn and at the same time as a drought in the Cerrado, we will likely see
the reverse happen in 2016/2017. The southern livestock growers need more corn
earlier in the season. Mato Grosso is pushing corn out the Amazon and inverting
the normal flow of things even with record crops.
The point is, we can soon see a scenario where Brazil soy area starts to
shrink in near term. Details in next newsletter.
Enjoy Brazil Super Bowl Sunday !!!
It might not be football, but the emotions will be running high on Sunday
Kory
Thursday, April 7, 2016
April Conab report comments
Well, after 4 months of swimming against the tide, today Conab corrected
the Brazil soybean crop euphoria. This was never a 103 mmt crop. Never.
The weather situation this year was terrible. As of today, the weather is
still terrible. Hot and Dry.
Cotton and corn in Eastern MT, Goias and Bahia are suffering.
Is it a red alert yet? No
Could it be in 3 weeks? yes
Given the hell this years soybeans went thru, I am amazed we are even
talking 99 mmt yet.
FC stone adjusted their crop size lower to 97.5 mmt. This is what I have been
saying since Early December.
If it were not for Intacta II soybeans and Elatus fungicide, we would be looking
at a Brazil soybean crop in the low 90 mmt range.
IMEA will update their Mato Grosso soybean crop estimate soon. I think they will
be 27 mmt or slightly below.
The NE quadrant was ravaged this year. I feel for those guys. The NE tends to
have 7 year cycles of plenty and 7 year cycles of famine.
We are in year 4 of famine. I wrote about this in the November newsletter.
Being an agronomist and producer with experience with crop losses first hand,
it was obvious to me that the soybeans were screaming for help during these
120 deg days in December and February. They were cooked at the beginning
and cooked at the end. Poor seeds that were cooked in storage did not have vigor,
and some farmers cut costs by not spraying fungicides and insecticides while their
crop was burning up. I would have done the same thing. Screw it.
For those that had a good crop. My hat goes off to you. Those who got the extra rain,
have clay soils, and poored the money into the crop had some 60 sac soybeans.
I guess we can grow soybeans on 1200 mm of rain if they are timed right.
Those with sand, never had a chance. Brazil has a lot of sand in the frontier areas.
I have been to them all and helped shovel out a 4X4 pick up stuck in sand as though we
were in 3 ft of snow. Land like this is worthless in a year like this.
It needs to stay PASTURE !!!!!!!!!!!!! FOREVER!!!!!
The corn production forecasts as of today are reasonable, but if rains shut off
for 3-4 weeks, the 2nd crop corn is also overstated.
Below is a snap shot of the newsletter I sent out the end of January after my crop tour.
For those whoe want a free copy of a newsletter, please visit
www.Brazilintl.com
click on the button
the Brazil soybean crop euphoria. This was never a 103 mmt crop. Never.
The weather situation this year was terrible. As of today, the weather is
still terrible. Hot and Dry.
Cotton and corn in Eastern MT, Goias and Bahia are suffering.
Is it a red alert yet? No
Could it be in 3 weeks? yes
Given the hell this years soybeans went thru, I am amazed we are even
talking 99 mmt yet.
FC stone adjusted their crop size lower to 97.5 mmt. This is what I have been
saying since Early December.
If it were not for Intacta II soybeans and Elatus fungicide, we would be looking
at a Brazil soybean crop in the low 90 mmt range.
IMEA will update their Mato Grosso soybean crop estimate soon. I think they will
be 27 mmt or slightly below.
The NE quadrant was ravaged this year. I feel for those guys. The NE tends to
have 7 year cycles of plenty and 7 year cycles of famine.
We are in year 4 of famine. I wrote about this in the November newsletter.
Being an agronomist and producer with experience with crop losses first hand,
it was obvious to me that the soybeans were screaming for help during these
120 deg days in December and February. They were cooked at the beginning
and cooked at the end. Poor seeds that were cooked in storage did not have vigor,
and some farmers cut costs by not spraying fungicides and insecticides while their
crop was burning up. I would have done the same thing. Screw it.
For those that had a good crop. My hat goes off to you. Those who got the extra rain,
have clay soils, and poored the money into the crop had some 60 sac soybeans.
I guess we can grow soybeans on 1200 mm of rain if they are timed right.
Those with sand, never had a chance. Brazil has a lot of sand in the frontier areas.
I have been to them all and helped shovel out a 4X4 pick up stuck in sand as though we
were in 3 ft of snow. Land like this is worthless in a year like this.
It needs to stay PASTURE !!!!!!!!!!!!! FOREVER!!!!!
The corn production forecasts as of today are reasonable, but if rains shut off
for 3-4 weeks, the 2nd crop corn is also overstated.
Below is a snap shot of the newsletter I sent out the end of January after my crop tour.
For those whoe want a free copy of a newsletter, please visit
www.Brazilintl.com
click on the button
Wednesday, March 16, 2016
Lula.gov.br
Welcome back old timer,
Whew, just in the knick of time. We needed you back. Brazil should be thankful that
a retired old man would be willing to come back and take the tough whipper snapper
job of Dilma´s Chief of Staff. Make sure your blackberry has a new battery. You
are going to need it !!!!!!!!!!
By the way old timer, there is a new app called Whatsapp. It is free.
This will help you communicate with your staff back in Cuba.
Now that the port in Cuba is finished, which Brazilians paid for,
USA entrepreneurs will soon be using it to import wheat, edible beans and Iphones,
into Cuba. Maybe you could use that squid-like charm of yours to get that railroad
built to Mato Grosso?
Your young, attractive protoge promised us this railroad back in 2010. During the
commodity boom, Mato Grosso doubled her grain production and we need a little help
out here. Maybe you could use your squid-like eyes and talk to the Chinese. They
might buy you a choo-choo train if you are a good boy.
The significance of today´s events are far reaching and long lasting. Subscribers
email and call asking what is going to happen next?
When you are dealing with people that make the rules up as they go and they do so
in an irrational, survivalistic manner, it´s damn hard to out maneauver these guys.
The markets do not like uncertainty. I felt quite confident that the recent rally
in Brazil stock market and Real was pre-mature. Brazil is good at making the wrong
decision. They did so with breath taking certainty this week. Double down on what
does not work. You are down to your last few chips and you go all in knowing you
must get a black jack just to get back to even.
As I write this, the president of the central bank says he is likley to step down
without fiscal responsibility.
The risk is if the country descends into chaos. There is rurmor of a country wide
voluntary business shutdown in March 30th. This is a protest to the current
shananigans.
The question now is: Why impeach Dilma? In essence she is not President anymore.
She has wasted her mandate and gave what was left of it back to her mentor.
With the mentor basically senile, it seems to me he will burn off what is left
of his personal politcal capital in coming months. He has said no to fiscal
reforms and social benefits. Keep the poor fed, some beer, and games to watch,
they will allow you to stay in power.
Olymics are coming up. Nothing is ready. How do you have impeachment hearings
and Lula in the background acting like a victim while we have an international crowd
to impress?
Nothing happens in Brazil as quickly as we would like. When I hear people talk
that she will be gone in a couple months, that tells me expect a year to go by.
What could change this? We need another national protest double the numbers
we viewed last Sunday. That could get the ball rolling. Its in the Brasilians
hands. More of the same? or will 1 million descend on Brasilia one weekend
to end this? Notice in the protests that most everyone was old. Not very many
young folks. Many were at a rock and roll concert all weekend in Sao Paulo.
Sex, Drugs, and Rock and Roll, no problems here. Such is Brazil.
There are two very distinct scenarios unfolding for soybean farmers in both
hemispheres.
If the current lack of fiscal restraint continues, the Dollar:Real will continue to
widen and give incentive to Brasil farmers to keep planting soybeans at any price.
With Dollar 5:1, US$ 7.00 soy at CME is workable here for 2017.
Not easy, but workable. Imagine a 4 billion bu USA crop this fall??
If Dilma and Co. fails and impeachment proceedings continue, look for the
Dollar:Real to trade 3.50:1 at that time. This will cause the Brazilian
farmer to hit the pause button and stand pat for a couple years until
margins return to their favor i.e. lower costs of imports etc.
Add into this the Feds decision to keep interest rates low.
Add into this the USA political circus. What if Trump wins?
What if Trump wants to play hard ball with China? tax imports?
How would China respond? Cut back on USA imports of USA soy?
My guess if there is even a hint of Trump being President this fall,
we will see Chinese trade and infrastructure teams literally living
in Brasilia and Mato Grosso.
Trump wants to build walls.
China will pay for, build, and pay a surcharge too boot for
them to access protein from Brazil with more ease.
Exciting times ahead.
1. Dilma gone= lean times for Brazil farmer but save the country.
2. Dilma/Lula hang on for a year- Dollar is 5:1 and soybeans trade 7 bucks
in Chicago we have a USA ag crisis on our hands. (kinda need a drought wink wink)
3. Trump is President, walls go up, stronger dollar, and trade wars start.
Also causes USA ag crisis and plays into Brazil ag no matter who is President
or what the economy is. It won´t matter. Full throttle production.
4. X factor
Trying to figure out Brazil today is like playing 3 dimentional chess with Spock
on Star Trek. And the table is rotating too ........
More later
Kory
´
Whew, just in the knick of time. We needed you back. Brazil should be thankful that
a retired old man would be willing to come back and take the tough whipper snapper
job of Dilma´s Chief of Staff. Make sure your blackberry has a new battery. You
are going to need it !!!!!!!!!!
By the way old timer, there is a new app called Whatsapp. It is free.
This will help you communicate with your staff back in Cuba.
Now that the port in Cuba is finished, which Brazilians paid for,
USA entrepreneurs will soon be using it to import wheat, edible beans and Iphones,
into Cuba. Maybe you could use that squid-like charm of yours to get that railroad
built to Mato Grosso?
Your young, attractive protoge promised us this railroad back in 2010. During the
commodity boom, Mato Grosso doubled her grain production and we need a little help
out here. Maybe you could use your squid-like eyes and talk to the Chinese. They
might buy you a choo-choo train if you are a good boy.
The significance of today´s events are far reaching and long lasting. Subscribers
email and call asking what is going to happen next?
When you are dealing with people that make the rules up as they go and they do so
in an irrational, survivalistic manner, it´s damn hard to out maneauver these guys.
The markets do not like uncertainty. I felt quite confident that the recent rally
in Brazil stock market and Real was pre-mature. Brazil is good at making the wrong
decision. They did so with breath taking certainty this week. Double down on what
does not work. You are down to your last few chips and you go all in knowing you
must get a black jack just to get back to even.
As I write this, the president of the central bank says he is likley to step down
without fiscal responsibility.
The risk is if the country descends into chaos. There is rurmor of a country wide
voluntary business shutdown in March 30th. This is a protest to the current
shananigans.
The question now is: Why impeach Dilma? In essence she is not President anymore.
She has wasted her mandate and gave what was left of it back to her mentor.
With the mentor basically senile, it seems to me he will burn off what is left
of his personal politcal capital in coming months. He has said no to fiscal
reforms and social benefits. Keep the poor fed, some beer, and games to watch,
they will allow you to stay in power.
Olymics are coming up. Nothing is ready. How do you have impeachment hearings
and Lula in the background acting like a victim while we have an international crowd
to impress?
Nothing happens in Brazil as quickly as we would like. When I hear people talk
that she will be gone in a couple months, that tells me expect a year to go by.
What could change this? We need another national protest double the numbers
we viewed last Sunday. That could get the ball rolling. Its in the Brasilians
hands. More of the same? or will 1 million descend on Brasilia one weekend
to end this? Notice in the protests that most everyone was old. Not very many
young folks. Many were at a rock and roll concert all weekend in Sao Paulo.
Sex, Drugs, and Rock and Roll, no problems here. Such is Brazil.
There are two very distinct scenarios unfolding for soybean farmers in both
hemispheres.
If the current lack of fiscal restraint continues, the Dollar:Real will continue to
widen and give incentive to Brasil farmers to keep planting soybeans at any price.
With Dollar 5:1, US$ 7.00 soy at CME is workable here for 2017.
Not easy, but workable. Imagine a 4 billion bu USA crop this fall??
If Dilma and Co. fails and impeachment proceedings continue, look for the
Dollar:Real to trade 3.50:1 at that time. This will cause the Brazilian
farmer to hit the pause button and stand pat for a couple years until
margins return to their favor i.e. lower costs of imports etc.
Add into this the Feds decision to keep interest rates low.
Add into this the USA political circus. What if Trump wins?
What if Trump wants to play hard ball with China? tax imports?
How would China respond? Cut back on USA imports of USA soy?
My guess if there is even a hint of Trump being President this fall,
we will see Chinese trade and infrastructure teams literally living
in Brasilia and Mato Grosso.
Trump wants to build walls.
China will pay for, build, and pay a surcharge too boot for
them to access protein from Brazil with more ease.
Exciting times ahead.
1. Dilma gone= lean times for Brazil farmer but save the country.
2. Dilma/Lula hang on for a year- Dollar is 5:1 and soybeans trade 7 bucks
in Chicago we have a USA ag crisis on our hands. (kinda need a drought wink wink)
3. Trump is President, walls go up, stronger dollar, and trade wars start.
Also causes USA ag crisis and plays into Brazil ag no matter who is President
or what the economy is. It won´t matter. Full throttle production.
4. X factor
Trying to figure out Brazil today is like playing 3 dimentional chess with Spock
on Star Trek. And the table is rotating too ........
More later
Kory
´
Saturday, March 5, 2016
Politics, Soybeans,Drought,FX and Frank Underwood $$$$$$$$$ Game Changer
Brazil farmers and commodity funds were caught off guard this week.
We had been trading about 4:1 Dollar/Real the previous two weeks.
With the Brazilian farmer about 60% sold on his soybean crop combined
with some regions losing production on a daily basis, he is holding
on to remaining production using it as a currency hedge.
The idea among locals is that we should be trading 4.25:1 by now given
the political and economic instability.
Out of the blue, the Federal Police have illegal campaign contribution proof
on Dilma and they took Lula in for questioning on kickback schemes from his
administration and operation Car Wash involving Petrobras. What did he know
and when did he know it? Reminds me of Iran/Contra and Reagan Admin.
It was like being in an episode of "House of Cards" Friday. I was flipping back
and forth between NetFlix and Twitter updates on the state of the Brazil politic.
I kept asking myself, if Lula was Frank Underwood, what would he do next?
The stock market and FX market exploded higher thinking that the Feds finally
have the Goods on the PT.
I stopped by my local butcher this morning. He hung his head low. I am sad he said.
I am embarrassed. I voted for Lula two times. My god how they have been stealing
from us all this time. I did not want to believe it, but now I have too.
Lula exited his term as president with 90% approval ratings. He will die
being known as a common criminal now. Reminds me of the Madoff scandel.
It was all an illusion.
The FX rallied to 3.65:1 before selling off back to 3.75. No one was expecting
this !!! Domestic soybean prices are selling off at a rate of 2-3% per day.
This is the worst nightmare for the Brazilian farmer. A static/weak CME and a stronger
REAL- they cannot control their risk and protect cashflow gross revenues.
It was fun on the way up, CME at 9 bucks and weaker REAL. They did not need to do
anything. Now we have had a 9% drop in FX and CME rallies maybe 2%.
Part II
Many videos have come out of Bahia, Maranhao, Piaui, and Tocantins. The situation is not good.
We have seen this movie many times. We have a state that produces X and commentators
come out and talk of 10-20-30% losses. Many times we hear of losses of 1-2 million tons.
In the end, the loss of production ends up being about 500,000 tons.
Is it the same thing this time?
The timing is bad to be optimistic on production. Late planted soy in December and January
are at high risk. The soils tend to be sandier in the NE and have less staying power to hang in there.
We have a Conab report on Thursday March 10th.
Conab, as with USDA, is always compiling data from 30 days ago. So Conab would be putting
together data as of mid-February. Until then, yields in Mato Grosso were coming in better
than expected. So we could see an adjustment higher in the interim in some states.
From mid-February until March 5th, we have seen a rapid deterioration in the soy crop in
the MaPiToBa region. This extends across northern Goias and into the Eastern 1/3 of
Mato Grosso.
Recently, we have seen various cropcasters increase their soy crop size potential for Brazil.
The ranges have narrowed to 98.5 mmt to 101.5 mmt.
What do I expect the next 30 days. I think we have seen the high water mark for Brazil
soy crop size. The question will be if Conab makes further adjusments lower in March
or do they stand pat and then adjust lower in April.
The point being, that if Conab would increase slightly in March, they will likely decrease
in April and May. The markets will anticipate this.
The last 33% of the Mato Grosso crop will have very low yields. This will affect the final tally.
MaPiToBa could be 500,000 tons to 2 million tons overstated as of today.
The Parana crop will likely be same size as last year. This means a 500,000 to 1 million
ton cut there.
Mato Grosso do Sul has suffered some losses due to too much rain at harvest. It has been called
a 7.5 million ton crop, but will likely edge lower to 7 million ton in time. This is a tough call
because some producers harvested their best crop ever in the state.
Rio Grande do Sul has a very nice crop on deck. Their production could actually be understated.
In closing, with Friday´s market action in CME and FX, we will likely continue with the soy rally.
Brazil farmers will not sell the balance of their production.
We will likely see some weather premium come into USA market if the hot and dryish pattern
continues.
A rally to 9.20 seems likely now. Could we see 9.50-10 bucks by June?
yes, I think we can.
I think the talk of 8 dollar soy has been negated now by the change in FX and the shrinking
Brazil crop size. The last 10 days have taken its toll in some regions.
Thus, with a weekly reversal, and technical breakout(maybe next week), the fundamentals ranging
from lower yields from later soy, FX, CME rebalance, domestic premiums, and spring weather
for USA, should allow us to stay above the 8.50 lows just put in and the trend should be
higher and not lower in the coming weeks.
I think we are putting in some very long term lows here. I am mildly bullish as we get through
this harvest process. From May forward, higher prices should be the theme.
Thank you for the new subscribers in recent weeks.
I will be at the Lucas do Rio Verde Ag show the end of March.
I will attend the ground breaking for the new Corn ethanol mill there.
April newsletter should go out on March 31 or April 1.
Clients that signed up for the 3 month VIP trial period back in December have now
renewed for 1 year.
If you have interest, drop me a note, maybe we can work something out that fits your
needs.
Kory
We had been trading about 4:1 Dollar/Real the previous two weeks.
With the Brazilian farmer about 60% sold on his soybean crop combined
with some regions losing production on a daily basis, he is holding
on to remaining production using it as a currency hedge.
The idea among locals is that we should be trading 4.25:1 by now given
the political and economic instability.
Out of the blue, the Federal Police have illegal campaign contribution proof
on Dilma and they took Lula in for questioning on kickback schemes from his
administration and operation Car Wash involving Petrobras. What did he know
and when did he know it? Reminds me of Iran/Contra and Reagan Admin.
It was like being in an episode of "House of Cards" Friday. I was flipping back
and forth between NetFlix and Twitter updates on the state of the Brazil politic.
I kept asking myself, if Lula was Frank Underwood, what would he do next?
The stock market and FX market exploded higher thinking that the Feds finally
have the Goods on the PT.
I stopped by my local butcher this morning. He hung his head low. I am sad he said.
I am embarrassed. I voted for Lula two times. My god how they have been stealing
from us all this time. I did not want to believe it, but now I have too.
Lula exited his term as president with 90% approval ratings. He will die
being known as a common criminal now. Reminds me of the Madoff scandel.
It was all an illusion.
The FX rallied to 3.65:1 before selling off back to 3.75. No one was expecting
this !!! Domestic soybean prices are selling off at a rate of 2-3% per day.
This is the worst nightmare for the Brazilian farmer. A static/weak CME and a stronger
REAL- they cannot control their risk and protect cashflow gross revenues.
It was fun on the way up, CME at 9 bucks and weaker REAL. They did not need to do
anything. Now we have had a 9% drop in FX and CME rallies maybe 2%.
Part II
Many videos have come out of Bahia, Maranhao, Piaui, and Tocantins. The situation is not good.
We have seen this movie many times. We have a state that produces X and commentators
come out and talk of 10-20-30% losses. Many times we hear of losses of 1-2 million tons.
In the end, the loss of production ends up being about 500,000 tons.
Is it the same thing this time?
The timing is bad to be optimistic on production. Late planted soy in December and January
are at high risk. The soils tend to be sandier in the NE and have less staying power to hang in there.
We have a Conab report on Thursday March 10th.
Conab, as with USDA, is always compiling data from 30 days ago. So Conab would be putting
together data as of mid-February. Until then, yields in Mato Grosso were coming in better
than expected. So we could see an adjustment higher in the interim in some states.
From mid-February until March 5th, we have seen a rapid deterioration in the soy crop in
the MaPiToBa region. This extends across northern Goias and into the Eastern 1/3 of
Mato Grosso.
Recently, we have seen various cropcasters increase their soy crop size potential for Brazil.
The ranges have narrowed to 98.5 mmt to 101.5 mmt.
What do I expect the next 30 days. I think we have seen the high water mark for Brazil
soy crop size. The question will be if Conab makes further adjusments lower in March
or do they stand pat and then adjust lower in April.
The point being, that if Conab would increase slightly in March, they will likely decrease
in April and May. The markets will anticipate this.
The last 33% of the Mato Grosso crop will have very low yields. This will affect the final tally.
MaPiToBa could be 500,000 tons to 2 million tons overstated as of today.
The Parana crop will likely be same size as last year. This means a 500,000 to 1 million
ton cut there.
Mato Grosso do Sul has suffered some losses due to too much rain at harvest. It has been called
a 7.5 million ton crop, but will likely edge lower to 7 million ton in time. This is a tough call
because some producers harvested their best crop ever in the state.
Rio Grande do Sul has a very nice crop on deck. Their production could actually be understated.
In closing, with Friday´s market action in CME and FX, we will likely continue with the soy rally.
Brazil farmers will not sell the balance of their production.
We will likely see some weather premium come into USA market if the hot and dryish pattern
continues.
A rally to 9.20 seems likely now. Could we see 9.50-10 bucks by June?
yes, I think we can.
I think the talk of 8 dollar soy has been negated now by the change in FX and the shrinking
Brazil crop size. The last 10 days have taken its toll in some regions.
Thus, with a weekly reversal, and technical breakout(maybe next week), the fundamentals ranging
from lower yields from later soy, FX, CME rebalance, domestic premiums, and spring weather
for USA, should allow us to stay above the 8.50 lows just put in and the trend should be
higher and not lower in the coming weeks.
I think we are putting in some very long term lows here. I am mildly bullish as we get through
this harvest process. From May forward, higher prices should be the theme.
Thank you for the new subscribers in recent weeks.
I will be at the Lucas do Rio Verde Ag show the end of March.
I will attend the ground breaking for the new Corn ethanol mill there.
April newsletter should go out on March 31 or April 1.
Clients that signed up for the 3 month VIP trial period back in December have now
renewed for 1 year.
If you have interest, drop me a note, maybe we can work something out that fits your
needs.
Kory
Saturday, February 20, 2016
Feb 20th Blog Soy, Corn, Zika, Econ, Prices, Export taxes etc
It has been awhile since I have updated blog.
I have been busy. Some work related and other personal.
Everyone wondering about crop size. Me too.
Lately yield reports are quite good. There some 60 sac/ha or 54 bu/acre
soybeans in Mato Grosso and many other parts of the country.
I do know of a couple fields that have yielded 75 sacs/ha. Intacta soy
and a little luck with rain. I still hear and see of fields yielding 20 sacs also.
SW Goias state seems to be in good shape compared to previous two dryish years.
(Many are reporting on Goias and MGDS applying export taxes).
In my opinion, this is a non-event. If they export too much some excise taxes
will kick in. But for now, steady as we go.
MGDS is coming in with a great crop. Rain makes grain.
I have heard of some 80-90 bu/acre soybeans being harvested in Parana.
These are small fields. But, none the less- damn impressive.
I still see photos of short beans in many locals. There is still a boat load
of average soybean out there yielding about 40 bu/acre.
How does this affect the tally at end of the day??
I still lean to the conservative end of any estimates out there.
It is an agronomist/farmer thing- nothing scientific.
We have millions of hectares of soybeans planted in November and December
and a few in January also. We are in uncharted waters as to how normal
cycle soybeans will yield out of the normal window. They won´t freeze- wink wink,
but Sun could surprise us either up or down on final yields as time goes on.
What will Conab say March 10th? God knows....
The litmus test for me in February was if they would print a number
above or below 100 mmt. If above 100, which it was, they are still
optimistic. We production bears maybe wrong....
But,
What if they print below 100 mmt in March?
May soybeans seem to want to breakout to upside. If the crop is
a 100 mmt+, why are beans wanting to trade higher?
I have seen technical analysis showing a solid argument for 7.90-8.00
soybeans in the months to come. Even 7.50
I have seen wave counts point to 10 bucks if we pop out of this consolidation
range.
I am of the mind since November that 8.43-8.47 are solid lows.
But I think getting on top of 9.20 will also be very difficult given
the size of Brazil and Argie´s crop.
We had Brazil analysts saying Mato Grosso crop was gone in
late December and expect 12.50 soybeans by February. The USA
does not have the supplies to meet Chinese demand. I said Huh???
All I see these days are 450-500 and even 650 million bu carryovers
in USA going forward. Lots of beans.
I have read that if Brazil soy crop is only 97 mmt,in theory, Brazil would
run out of soybeans later in the year assuming record crush and exports.
(This is mildly bullish longer term if we can get this crop size below 100 mmt)
2nd crop corn area will be large. I think it will take away from the
680,000 ha of 2nd crop soybeans that were planted last year at this time.
The size of Mato Grosso and Brazil 2nd crop corn will depend on May rains.
The crop is going in late. They have been lucky 5 years in a row. Can they pull
out another one?
I have posted a fantastic report from IMEA on my website.
It is the 2025 Outlook in English. It is really really GREAT.(trumpism)
I will put together a newsletter around this with my comments and opinion
as to how realistic it is. But every producer in the world should have this
file memorized. If we stay weak on Argie and Brasil FX, these guys can keep
expanding as long as credit and infrastructure are there to move the stuff out.
www.brazilintl.com
I thought I was going to be in Rio Grande do Sul this week and then Mato Grosso.
But Zika news has caused my client to cancel his tour for the time being.
Probably a wise move but I am too numb to worry about it. 15 years here you will
realize something or someone else will kill you before a mosquito does. This is
also Viking mentality.
Economy is shrinking. My John Deere dealer buddy is now in training with JD
construction. He left ag sales for now. Small mechanic shops and salons locally
are closing do to lack of movement. Reports of Sao Paulo real estate is down 20%.
Seems to me a 50% correction would be a nice start.
The weather is hot and dry again. This is strange for February. The soil has enough
moisture to germinate and grow like crazy. The end of April and early May I will
be on the edge of my seat again just like at Christmas. How much did it rain???
Did you get any??? and the 2nd act will have begun.
I have been busy. Some work related and other personal.
Everyone wondering about crop size. Me too.
Lately yield reports are quite good. There some 60 sac/ha or 54 bu/acre
soybeans in Mato Grosso and many other parts of the country.
I do know of a couple fields that have yielded 75 sacs/ha. Intacta soy
and a little luck with rain. I still hear and see of fields yielding 20 sacs also.
SW Goias state seems to be in good shape compared to previous two dryish years.
(Many are reporting on Goias and MGDS applying export taxes).
In my opinion, this is a non-event. If they export too much some excise taxes
will kick in. But for now, steady as we go.
MGDS is coming in with a great crop. Rain makes grain.
I have heard of some 80-90 bu/acre soybeans being harvested in Parana.
These are small fields. But, none the less- damn impressive.
I still see photos of short beans in many locals. There is still a boat load
of average soybean out there yielding about 40 bu/acre.
How does this affect the tally at end of the day??
I still lean to the conservative end of any estimates out there.
It is an agronomist/farmer thing- nothing scientific.
We have millions of hectares of soybeans planted in November and December
and a few in January also. We are in uncharted waters as to how normal
cycle soybeans will yield out of the normal window. They won´t freeze- wink wink,
but Sun could surprise us either up or down on final yields as time goes on.
What will Conab say March 10th? God knows....
The litmus test for me in February was if they would print a number
above or below 100 mmt. If above 100, which it was, they are still
optimistic. We production bears maybe wrong....
But,
What if they print below 100 mmt in March?
May soybeans seem to want to breakout to upside. If the crop is
a 100 mmt+, why are beans wanting to trade higher?
I have seen technical analysis showing a solid argument for 7.90-8.00
soybeans in the months to come. Even 7.50
I have seen wave counts point to 10 bucks if we pop out of this consolidation
range.
I am of the mind since November that 8.43-8.47 are solid lows.
But I think getting on top of 9.20 will also be very difficult given
the size of Brazil and Argie´s crop.
We had Brazil analysts saying Mato Grosso crop was gone in
late December and expect 12.50 soybeans by February. The USA
does not have the supplies to meet Chinese demand. I said Huh???
All I see these days are 450-500 and even 650 million bu carryovers
in USA going forward. Lots of beans.
I have read that if Brazil soy crop is only 97 mmt,in theory, Brazil would
run out of soybeans later in the year assuming record crush and exports.
(This is mildly bullish longer term if we can get this crop size below 100 mmt)
2nd crop corn area will be large. I think it will take away from the
680,000 ha of 2nd crop soybeans that were planted last year at this time.
The size of Mato Grosso and Brazil 2nd crop corn will depend on May rains.
The crop is going in late. They have been lucky 5 years in a row. Can they pull
out another one?
I have posted a fantastic report from IMEA on my website.
It is the 2025 Outlook in English. It is really really GREAT.(trumpism)
I will put together a newsletter around this with my comments and opinion
as to how realistic it is. But every producer in the world should have this
file memorized. If we stay weak on Argie and Brasil FX, these guys can keep
expanding as long as credit and infrastructure are there to move the stuff out.
www.brazilintl.com
I thought I was going to be in Rio Grande do Sul this week and then Mato Grosso.
But Zika news has caused my client to cancel his tour for the time being.
Probably a wise move but I am too numb to worry about it. 15 years here you will
realize something or someone else will kill you before a mosquito does. This is
also Viking mentality.
Economy is shrinking. My John Deere dealer buddy is now in training with JD
construction. He left ag sales for now. Small mechanic shops and salons locally
are closing do to lack of movement. Reports of Sao Paulo real estate is down 20%.
Seems to me a 50% correction would be a nice start.
The weather is hot and dry again. This is strange for February. The soil has enough
moisture to germinate and grow like crazy. The end of April and early May I will
be on the edge of my seat again just like at Christmas. How much did it rain???
Did you get any??? and the 2nd act will have begun.
Saturday, January 9, 2016
January 9 blog update
Rains have come, now what?
Early yields in Mato Grosso are from 19 to 49 sacs/ha.
17 to 43.5 bu/acre
What do we do with that info? 1% harvested
Many say they have 60 sac soybeans to harvest end of January and early Feb.
I am sure there will be some.
I look at it like this.
Mato Grosso, in a normal year, is 80% good to excellent all the time.
20% has a drought issue or too much rain at harvest or some such issue.
This year, that is inverted.
80% of the state had problems at some point or another and 20% of the
state was good to excellent.
"Some are still planting" !!!! This is like planting soybeans in July.
Northern hemisphere
I will do my personal tour and report to my subscriber list directly.
I do not plan to post much here in the coming weeks.
Early Parana yields are not good. About 19% less than last year same field basis.
1% harvested
Test weight is the issue- there was no Sun thus no photosynthesis.
Later soy is being attacked by rust. If you used tier one fungicides such as Elatus,
(Syngenta product)you are OK. If you used older, cheaper fungicides,
the rust is breaking through.
Conab crop report will tell the tale on who has been naughty and nice.
December Conab started with 102.5 mmt.
If they drop only 1 mmt on Tuesday, the Brazil soy crop will be big.
Congrats to those who were not swayed by drought talk and images.
I personally expect them to cut production to sub-100 mmt and stand pat
for 1 or 2 months until more data comes in.
It will be a long drawn out harvest. We will have data coming in yet in May.
I will be traveling a lot the next 7 weeks. Mato Grosso twice and Rio Grande
do Sul also.
I will be directing my reports to subscribers only in the near future.
100% renewal rate for 2016 and many new subscribers also.
Many have been with me 10 years now. I do appreciate it.
It is time to spin the soybean roulette wheel:
Red or Black?
Red 99 or Black 101 ;>)
or maybe "snake eyes" is the better analogy
Craps- We are all wrong !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Early yields in Mato Grosso are from 19 to 49 sacs/ha.
17 to 43.5 bu/acre
What do we do with that info? 1% harvested
Many say they have 60 sac soybeans to harvest end of January and early Feb.
I am sure there will be some.
I look at it like this.
Mato Grosso, in a normal year, is 80% good to excellent all the time.
20% has a drought issue or too much rain at harvest or some such issue.
This year, that is inverted.
80% of the state had problems at some point or another and 20% of the
state was good to excellent.
"Some are still planting" !!!! This is like planting soybeans in July.
Northern hemisphere
I will do my personal tour and report to my subscriber list directly.
I do not plan to post much here in the coming weeks.
Early Parana yields are not good. About 19% less than last year same field basis.
1% harvested
Test weight is the issue- there was no Sun thus no photosynthesis.
Later soy is being attacked by rust. If you used tier one fungicides such as Elatus,
(Syngenta product)you are OK. If you used older, cheaper fungicides,
the rust is breaking through.
Conab crop report will tell the tale on who has been naughty and nice.
December Conab started with 102.5 mmt.
If they drop only 1 mmt on Tuesday, the Brazil soy crop will be big.
Congrats to those who were not swayed by drought talk and images.
I personally expect them to cut production to sub-100 mmt and stand pat
for 1 or 2 months until more data comes in.
It will be a long drawn out harvest. We will have data coming in yet in May.
I will be traveling a lot the next 7 weeks. Mato Grosso twice and Rio Grande
do Sul also.
I will be directing my reports to subscribers only in the near future.
100% renewal rate for 2016 and many new subscribers also.
Many have been with me 10 years now. I do appreciate it.
It is time to spin the soybean roulette wheel:
Red or Black?
Red 99 or Black 101 ;>)
or maybe "snake eyes" is the better analogy
Craps- We are all wrong !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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