We had one good rain in January- that was it.
In Goiania we are running at about 10% of normal rainfall for the last
30-40 days.
There is more and more talk of water rationing for Rio and Sao Paulo regions.
The forecast for the next 10 days is for 100 mm. This will be nice and not one
minute too soon.
Soybean harvest will move into high gear now. The bulk of the crop will
be harvested in the next 30 days. Early yields were erratic-just like the start
of planting. Soybeans need water with heat like we have had. A common theme
among farmers is that it was too hot during podding. The yields are a bit less
than expected.
The heart of Mato Grosso is doing well. Large farms are averaging 57 sacs
per ha which is on par with last season.
The recent crop size forecasts of 95 mmt are still too high. Conab will be out
February 12th. They will decrease a bit. It will take 1 or 2 months before they do
the full monty again.
I am not there yet, but in the back of my mind I sometimes wonder if this crop
might only be 90 mmt. We will see who wins this year- agronomists or crop forecasters
sitting in the office looking at satellite images.
The Brazil economic situation is surreal at the moment. As ridiculous as it was to live through
Dollar/Real at 1.50:1 a few years back, it is becoming just as surreal in the other direction now.
Dollar hugging 2.70:1, inflation, everything is becoming more expensive all the way down to
a 12 inch Subway sandwich. Gasoline and diesel are on the increase as well as local taxes.
GDP is now shrinking and layoffs are occurring in manufacturing sectors.
Energy costs are set to rise as the government buys energy from Argentina and buys more
and more LP gas from Bolivia to run the generators to fill in the power gaps from lack of
hydro power. I wonder how much more the Brazilian public will tolerate?
I keep getting emails from young men in USA that want to work or buy cheap land in Brazil.
I know this blog is read by thousands and I welcome the emails. But, if one wants to participate
in Brazil, one needs to ask the right questions. How can I learn Portuguese? How could I do some
work study on a farm or business to gain cultural experience. What is tax system like?
Can I work in Brazil on a tourist Visa? What is cost of living like?
I cannot imagine wanting to come to Brazil without doing some due diligence first.
Subscribing to newsletters, reading expat blogs, chatting with other Americans here
that are veterans- no matter what the cost.
Brazil will eat you alive if you are not mentally, emotionally and financially ready for
her ups and downs. The happy medium does not last for long. You either live in AC or
DC here depending on the decade.
In Brazil you need to invest and believe in yourself. Brazil will not invest in you.
Brazil will take from you until you have had enough. You must first survive before
you can thrive here. Period .......
Sunday, February 1, 2015
Sunday, January 11, 2015
Show Safra 163 2015 at Lucas do Rio Verde March 24-27th
I will be hosting an ag tour March 23 - 27th.
We will stop at the Ag show at Lucas.
Seed, chemical and ag machinery.
It will be a quick trip through Mato Grosso the week of.
Contact me at agturbobrazil@yahoo.com for more info.
Saturday, January 10, 2015
1 million semi loads and counting
The weather has sure been erratic the past 10 days.
Here in Goiania, we have not received a drop.
In Mato Grosso, they have been getting daily showers that
keep them alive. It has been perfect early harvest weather and
soybeans have been shipped to crushers right from the field.
Very little or no drying needed.
Goias and Bahia are going to be hurt by this drought.
How much will it be? Anyone´s guess as of today.
Will it be a disaster? No
It will nip the top end potential off this crop by a bit.
A normal single trailer semi hauls 28 ton in the box.
Double trailers haul about 50-52 ton in the boxes.
With Mato Grosso coming in at 28 million ton this year,
she will break the 1 million semi load threshold.
In 2014, Illinois produced 550 million bushels of soybeans
and Iowa came in at just above 500 million bushels.
13.6 to 15 million metric tons respectively.
Iowa produced 485,000 semi loads of soybeans in 2014.
I think this helps build some perspective about how many
soybeans are produced in Mato Grosso.
To grasp the volume of truck traffic on dirt roads that
must exit via BR 163 is staggering.
Mato Grosso soybean crop will be fantastic. It is the healthiest
crop in many years. February could still throw a wrench into
things, but for now, it is looking good.
Goias and Bahia continue with yellow alert warning.
Thank you to all the new subscribers last week.
regards
Kory
Here in Goiania, we have not received a drop.
In Mato Grosso, they have been getting daily showers that
keep them alive. It has been perfect early harvest weather and
soybeans have been shipped to crushers right from the field.
Very little or no drying needed.
Goias and Bahia are going to be hurt by this drought.
How much will it be? Anyone´s guess as of today.
Will it be a disaster? No
It will nip the top end potential off this crop by a bit.
A normal single trailer semi hauls 28 ton in the box.
Double trailers haul about 50-52 ton in the boxes.
With Mato Grosso coming in at 28 million ton this year,
she will break the 1 million semi load threshold.
In 2014, Illinois produced 550 million bushels of soybeans
and Iowa came in at just above 500 million bushels.
13.6 to 15 million metric tons respectively.
Iowa produced 485,000 semi loads of soybeans in 2014.
I think this helps build some perspective about how many
soybeans are produced in Mato Grosso.
To grasp the volume of truck traffic on dirt roads that
must exit via BR 163 is staggering.
Mato Grosso soybean crop will be fantastic. It is the healthiest
crop in many years. February could still throw a wrench into
things, but for now, it is looking good.
Goias and Bahia continue with yellow alert warning.
Thank you to all the new subscribers last week.
regards
Kory
Thursday, January 1, 2015
2015 arrives on a dry note
Normally January weather is a non issue for the Center-West part of the country.
Soybean crop is made and harvest is in full swing.
This year it is different.
The bulk of the soybean crop was planted about 30 days later than normal.
This makes a situation where we need December weather in January.
Normally we would see about 300 mm in January or 12 inches of rain.
The new 2 and 3 week forecasts call for a fraction of that amount.
The bulk of the last planted soybeans will be trying to fill the pods in the
coming weeks.
We have never experienced a situation quite like this. Especially not on record planted acres. Sandy soils and newer less fertile soils will be the first affected. The heavier clay soils will likely roll through this unscathed.
The point of this blog update is the point out that this crop is not made yet.
The crop looks beautiful, but it is late.
We need to watch this unfold the next 4-6 weeks.
If January is dry through the Cerrado, we will loose X % of the soybean crop.
Then come February and rains during harvest, this creates even more headaches
and delays.
The timing for planting 2nd crop corn has no more cushion to work with.
It must be planted Feb 5th- Feb 25th.
How much gets planted? Anyone´s guess today......
I will be monitoring with flash updates.
http://www.brazilintl.com/states/matogrosso/korymelby/kory_newsletter/km_newletter.htm
Soybean crop is made and harvest is in full swing.
This year it is different.
The bulk of the soybean crop was planted about 30 days later than normal.
This makes a situation where we need December weather in January.
The new 2 and 3 week forecasts call for a fraction of that amount.
The bulk of the last planted soybeans will be trying to fill the pods in the
coming weeks.
We have never experienced a situation quite like this. Especially not on record planted acres. Sandy soils and newer less fertile soils will be the first affected. The heavier clay soils will likely roll through this unscathed.
The point of this blog update is the point out that this crop is not made yet.
The crop looks beautiful, but it is late.
We need to watch this unfold the next 4-6 weeks.
If January is dry through the Cerrado, we will loose X % of the soybean crop.
Then come February and rains during harvest, this creates even more headaches
and delays.
The timing for planting 2nd crop corn has no more cushion to work with.
It must be planted Feb 5th- Feb 25th.
How much gets planted? Anyone´s guess today......
I will be monitoring with flash updates.
http://www.brazilintl.com/states/matogrosso/korymelby/kory_newsletter/km_newletter.htm
Happy New Year
Kory
* buy all the coffee you need for 2015 now !!!!
Sunday, December 21, 2014
Happy Holidays
Early soy harvest is nigh
Rains the past two weeks have been good.
We see some disease pressure here and there, but for the most
part a very nice crop is on the way.
There have been a few early soybean fields harvested under pivots
in Mato Grosso.
The first 5% of the crop will be ready about January 5th-10th.
There will be a spurt of early harvest and then a 3-4 week gap.
February 1st will start a historic harvest logistically for Mato Grosso
and Parana. The amount of soybeans that need to be harvested, trucked,
dryed, and trucked again will be mind boggling. The ideal 2nd crop corn
window will be the first two weeks of February. After that, the yields will
start to decrease.
For much of the country the harvest will be in March and April this year.
A key point to continue to watch will be the Northeast quadrant.
There is 10 million tons + up there. If Brazil is to produce 95 mmt, it needs
to come from up there in April.
The region seems to have broken its drought pattern of the last two seasons,
Sao Paulo city is in need to copious amounts of rain if they are to have enough
water to make it through 2015.
The situation is much like that of California valleys. We are dealing with a multi-year
situation.
Conab is forecasting a bit of a drop for the 2015 sugarcane season.
Two years ago there was much investment in renovation of areas.
The drought pattern nipped that potential. It is very hard to recover from.
I disagree with Celeres optimistic Brazil corn crop forecast for 2015.
The stars need to align perfectly just to maintain par much less increase
year over year.
There is much talk of using non-BT corn varieties this season. This will
nip yield potential. The the caterpillars are already becoming immune to
the BT traits.
Thank you for all the renewals and vote of confidence recently.
It is truly appreciated.
Merry Christmas
Kory and Brazilintl team
Tuesday, December 9, 2014
It´s all about February weather from here on out......
Rains have been nice lately.
Back to normal one could say.
I was in southern Goias last week. The soybeans were so small compared
to last year at this time. They are a month behind normal.
There will be some early soy harvested in Mato Grosso and Parana
about January 1 - maybe 10% of the crop.
Very little of this soy will make it to port. Most will go to crushers
that have very attractive bids for early delivery.
Last week IMEA of Mato Grosso decreased their projected planted
area of 2nd crop corn by 400,000 ha.
This crop cycle comes down to February. If we have decent harvest
weather, Brazil can harvest a very nice soy crop and get a 2nd crop
corn in the ground and all will be OK.
But........
If we have a 2 week rain even in February, katie bar the door.
Soybean harvest then gets pushed to 2nd half of February and
very little time to get projected area planted.
Even if producers push the envelope and plant until March 5 or the 10th,
their luck may run out this year.
The previous two crop cycles they have had rains into May.
This has generated record yields with GMO BT corn varieties.
The talk is to go back to conventional hybrids or RR only and
spray for insects as needed with chemicals.
Many will cut back on Nitrogen if they plant in late February.
There are big swings in production ahead. 10 million tons easily
in 2nd crop corn one way or another.
Soybeans at the moment look good but need time.
For the next two weeks, forecasts look good.
It is all about February !!!!!!!!!!!! I repeat FEB !!!!
Happy Holidays
Back to normal one could say.
I was in southern Goias last week. The soybeans were so small compared
to last year at this time. They are a month behind normal.
There will be some early soy harvested in Mato Grosso and Parana
about January 1 - maybe 10% of the crop.
Very little of this soy will make it to port. Most will go to crushers
that have very attractive bids for early delivery.
Last week IMEA of Mato Grosso decreased their projected planted
area of 2nd crop corn by 400,000 ha.
This crop cycle comes down to February. If we have decent harvest
weather, Brazil can harvest a very nice soy crop and get a 2nd crop
corn in the ground and all will be OK.
But........
If we have a 2 week rain even in February, katie bar the door.
Soybean harvest then gets pushed to 2nd half of February and
very little time to get projected area planted.
Even if producers push the envelope and plant until March 5 or the 10th,
their luck may run out this year.
The previous two crop cycles they have had rains into May.
This has generated record yields with GMO BT corn varieties.
The talk is to go back to conventional hybrids or RR only and
spray for insects as needed with chemicals.
Many will cut back on Nitrogen if they plant in late February.
There are big swings in production ahead. 10 million tons easily
in 2nd crop corn one way or another.
Soybeans at the moment look good but need time.
For the next two weeks, forecasts look good.
It is all about February !!!!!!!!!!!! I repeat FEB !!!!
Happy Holidays
Saturday, November 22, 2014
Brazilian partners, English, Next generation, Investment ideas
Investment ideas 2.0
On my travels to Mato Grosso and throughout Brazil, I am always looking for who the new
leaders in Ag and Ag business will be.
I am speaking of the 2nd generation Mato Grosso pioneers that want to stay and follow
in their fathers footsteps. The age of these new pioneers are 18 to 30 years old.
There are a handful of brilliant, passionate, globally educated males and females
that are back running the family business and looking for a way to take their ideas
to the next level- to go international.
I have found a handful that speak perfect English, traveled the world, and are what
I call dynamic business-minded people ready to take their family business to next level.
People like this are literally 1 in a million. The thing many foreigners do not grasp is that
well to do families send their kids abroad to then come back home and help the family
business grow.These young people are not looking for a job per sey. They are looking for
opportunities to put their knowledge, know how, and who they know to work.
In USA, for example, a well to do family will send their son or daughter off to a well known
college and then encourage them join a company or start their own business before they are
incorporated in the family business. We in the USA tend to learn how to fail. Learn how a business
is run and work with people.
In Brazil, a wealthy family tends to look at getting a job either during or after college as
demeaning to the family image. The family business has more than enough to go around.
Thus, we see a different dynamic unfold.
I have been approached by young dynamic Brazilian male and females to form partnerships
with foreign investors. This is a broad range of interests.
These range from:
A Brazilian partner to help buy land
Non- GMO seed sales rice and soy
Cattle feedlots
ethanol mills/value added processing
Tourism locals hotels and R&R locals/ environmental tourism
Transport and grain storage facilities and monitoring systems
There are many other possibilities ranging from restaurant chains, American
bar and grill themes, to sky diving in Brazil.
For those interested in thinking outside the box be it Brazilian or Gringo,
please drop me a note and we can chat about this and I can offer some
feedback as to what does and does not work in Brazil.
agturbobrazil@yahoo.com
We are in a phase now where dollars are leaving Brazil and Brazil has a
scarlet letter on her flag at the moment. This will pass.
I think we are within a year of Brazil recovering and regaining some growth again.
The point is that one needs boots on the ground and due diligence needs to be
done prior to the next wave starting. One needs to be ready.
There are a handful of very dynamic "20 somethings" that are itching to do
what their fathers have done again. But this time it will be Ag 2.0 and 3.0
Internet, robots, drones,What´s App, processing, value added, etc that will turbo
charge the next decade. When I first came in 2001, one was lucky to have
a cell phone much less a signal !!!!
The next phase is not linear growth, it is exponential.
Kory
On my travels to Mato Grosso and throughout Brazil, I am always looking for who the new
leaders in Ag and Ag business will be.
I am speaking of the 2nd generation Mato Grosso pioneers that want to stay and follow
in their fathers footsteps. The age of these new pioneers are 18 to 30 years old.
There are a handful of brilliant, passionate, globally educated males and females
that are back running the family business and looking for a way to take their ideas
to the next level- to go international.
I have found a handful that speak perfect English, traveled the world, and are what
I call dynamic business-minded people ready to take their family business to next level.
People like this are literally 1 in a million. The thing many foreigners do not grasp is that
well to do families send their kids abroad to then come back home and help the family
business grow.These young people are not looking for a job per sey. They are looking for
opportunities to put their knowledge, know how, and who they know to work.
In USA, for example, a well to do family will send their son or daughter off to a well known
college and then encourage them join a company or start their own business before they are
incorporated in the family business. We in the USA tend to learn how to fail. Learn how a business
is run and work with people.
In Brazil, a wealthy family tends to look at getting a job either during or after college as
demeaning to the family image. The family business has more than enough to go around.
Thus, we see a different dynamic unfold.
I have been approached by young dynamic Brazilian male and females to form partnerships
with foreign investors. This is a broad range of interests.
These range from:
A Brazilian partner to help buy land
Non- GMO seed sales rice and soy
Cattle feedlots
ethanol mills/value added processing
Tourism locals hotels and R&R locals/ environmental tourism
Transport and grain storage facilities and monitoring systems
There are many other possibilities ranging from restaurant chains, American
bar and grill themes, to sky diving in Brazil.
For those interested in thinking outside the box be it Brazilian or Gringo,
please drop me a note and we can chat about this and I can offer some
feedback as to what does and does not work in Brazil.
agturbobrazil@yahoo.com
We are in a phase now where dollars are leaving Brazil and Brazil has a
scarlet letter on her flag at the moment. This will pass.
I think we are within a year of Brazil recovering and regaining some growth again.
The point is that one needs boots on the ground and due diligence needs to be
done prior to the next wave starting. One needs to be ready.
There are a handful of very dynamic "20 somethings" that are itching to do
what their fathers have done again. But this time it will be Ag 2.0 and 3.0
Internet, robots, drones,What´s App, processing, value added, etc that will turbo
charge the next decade. When I first came in 2001, one was lucky to have
a cell phone much less a signal !!!!
The next phase is not linear growth, it is exponential.
Kory
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)