Saturday, November 21, 2015

Travels and thoughts Nov 21

Last week I was in Mato Grosso.
I am not impressed with soy crop.

I was to Brasilia this week. Many fields to be
planted yet in Goias.

Next week I will be in Southern Goias- stay tuned.

The soy crop is super late with below normal rains.

Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul are being hammered by rains.
Rain makes grain.
Will there be rust? Sure- there is always rust.
Spray fungicides and spray them again. Three applications are normal
these days.

We seem to get rain about once a week. Not everyday as per normal this
time of year.

In Mato Grosso, last week, good to excellent fields were from 10-15% of the
total area.

Reports out of Sorriso county last week of producers switching 1st crop
soy area to a 1st and only crop of corn.
This has never happened before.

We are dealing with a Mega El-Nino. It got stronger yet last week
from what I read.

The last big El-Nino was back in 1997.

Back in 1997 Mato Grosso planted 2 million hectares of soybeans with a yield
of 2.7 tons/ha. Today Mato Grosso plants 9 million ha with yields of 3.1 tons/ ha +.

Back in 1997 Goias produced 1 million ha of soybeans with yields of 2.5 tons.
Today Goias produces 3 million ha with yields of 3 tons/ha.

Tocantins back in 1997 produced Zero soybeans. Today the state plants 850,000 ha
and has yields of 3 tons/ha also.

If we go back to a previous El-Nino, we do not have any data to work with.

Bottom line to all of this. The crop is basically planted. The crop is young.
Harvest will be in March and April in many Cerrado states for 2016.

I have told clients that I do not think we have a 100 million ton crop on the way.

With Argentina ready to sell 10 million tons of soybeans, we are at a Mexican standoff
in the marketplace. Brazil is mildly bullish today. Argentina is mildly bearish today.

Does Brazil have the potential for a 10 million crop loss this season so far? No

Thus, until we have data supporting significant losses, we tread water it seems.

We need to burn up some carryover stock potentials in the coming months in order
to get optimistic again.

Dry January and a dry April/May 2016 would have the markets attention for both soy and corn.

I will be in Mato Grosso the end of March for the Show Safra 163 ag show.
This ag show is growing fast.



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