Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Hot and dry concerns

I have received many calls and emails today.

There is a hot/dry pattern stuck in the NE and SE Brazil.

If this pattern lasts another 10 days, I would consider cutting
the size of the Brazil soybean crop a bit.  

At this time, the hot dry weather does not concern me much.
It makes for great harvest weather.

We need to keep in mind that Mato Grosso is understated
when it comes to crop size this year. Mato Grosso can offset
some losses in other locals.

The hot dry scenario affects the following in order of seriousness.

1.  Coffee
2. Sugarcane vegetative growth
3. Late planted soybeans in Parana, SP, MG, and NE(MaPiToBa)
3. Amount of 2nd crop corn planted

If this hot dry spell lasts another 10-14 days in Parana,
this will start to influence how much 2nd crop corn gets planted.
After the 20th of Feb, the frost risk is very high planting after
this date.

Thus, farmers will switch to wheat- if they can- seed supply??

The biggest influence on sales at the moment is the recent rise to
2.45:1 basis US dollar. A soybean rally and a strong dollar is just
what the doctor ordered. Sell and sell some more.................

Conab report will be out on Feb 11. I will send out special report
to subscribers. Let us see how big the crop size potential is
based on January data and then we can make some adjustments
lower due to regional drought spots.

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