Sunday, April 28, 2013

Chat with neighbor cost of production 2014

Sunday:

I had a chance to catch up things with next door neighbor today.

He farms in north-central Goias state.

He is going to Agrishow also on Monday. He is driving while I am flying.
I will be back Tuesday while he is staying the week.

His family closed out 2012/13 crop with an average yield. They had a period
of 31 days without rain that took its toll.

He has been buying 2014 crop inputs with cash. So far has 30% of
2014 production locked in at reasonable prices but he is concerned
for the balance of crop inputs needed.

Fertilizer a year ago he was buying for R$ 850 per ton and this year
he is paying R$ 1250 per ton.

He also is preoccupied with lower soybean prices ahead.
It is not possible to lock in a premium price at port for next
April but multi-national offers are expected this coming week
for 2014 soybeans.

For his area in Goias state, he thinks they will start at R$38 per sac
for offers for the 2014 crop. He says it will be difficult to close any deals.
Freight variability is the big unknown.

R$38 = US$ 8.63 per bushel locally basis Goias state for 2014.
He expects bids to bounce around between R$ 36 and R$ 38/sac.

He says this barely covers the cost of production. I poked him a little
and I said its not that bad yet. He backed off a little and says to cover
all the costs of  labor, fuel, machinery payments and our land expansion,
the cash flow gets tight.

He bought land on the Goias/Tocantins border. It was pasture and
scrub brush. He is having 2nd thoughts about bringing more land
into production for 2014. It all depends on USA crop. He of course
has many questions for me as to crop prospects in USA.

This dovetails what I have included in previous newsletter as per
2014 cost of production.

Bids for Mato Grosso will likely be R$2 to R$4/sac less than Goias
state.

I will add more soon.

Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Weather Mato Grosso trip etc

Weather has turned dry. This is normal but 2nd crop corn could have used one or two drinks.

I am going to Ag show next Monday.

I think I will go to Mato Grosso May 4/5th time frame
and check on things.

* pending  real estate closing

* check on 2nd crop corn

* get an update on the status of corn ethanol mills
   for Mato Grosso.

* visit some friends.

I will likely post some photos here from time to time.

all of this will be collated into special May newsletter update
to subscribers.

Monday, April 22, 2013

Trucks headed to Rio Grande do Sul


Soy trucks drive to Brazil's southern tip to dodge ship queue - RTRS

22-Apr-2013 13:54
  • Soy flows to Rio Grande to escape congestion
  • Extra road haulage cost offset by lower ship expenses
  • Logistic headaches for soy sector worse than ever
By Peter Murphy
BRASILIA, April 22 (Reuters) - Trucks are making a 1,600 km (1,000 mile) detour to avoid Brazil's two most congested ports, instead taking their soy crop to the country's southern tip where wait times for ships are as much as a month shorter, a shipping agent and port authority said.
The detour demonstrates the lengths the grains sector is going to this year to cope with unprecedented logistical headaches as soy output leaps and investment in infrastructure lags.
A soy crop almost one-quarter larger than last year's has strained infrastructure at those ports to the breaking point with long queues not only of ships waiting to berth, but also of hundreds of trucks sitting idle for days waiting to offload.
"This doesn't usually happen," Rio Grande port press officer Loriana Garibaldi said of the rising flux of grains there. "It's because of the queues at other ports. Here the waiting time is a lot less," she said.
Unprecedented long waits due to underinvestment and delays in revamping infrastructure have cost Brazil dearly this year, with its top soy customer, China, reported to have lost patience and cancelled some loads to buy from the United States instead.
The logistics chaos has also overshadowed what is otherwise a jubilant year for Brazil's soy sector which is set to overtake the United States to become the world's biggest producer thanks in large part to tireless research efforts to boost yields.
Pressing on to Rio Grande where queues are shorter than at the two main grains ports, Santos in Sao Paulo state and Paranagua in neighboring Parana, cuts ships' demurrage costs and crew wage bill, offsetting the expense of the longer road trip.
Charterers typically pay between $15,000 and $25,000 in demurrage or ship rental per day.
The queue of vessels at Rio Grande port in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul is now about three times longer than a year ago, according to shipping agency SA Commodities/Unimar, with 46 ships waiting by last Friday.
But that queue is only half the length Paranagua's and shorter than in Santos where 59 ships were waiting to load last Friday.
"Rio Grande has good infrastructure and is close to the southeast so they're sending quite a lot of ships there," said Isis Markarian, a representative from SA Commodities/Unimar at Brazil's biggest port, Santos, in Sao Paulo state.
She said ships arriving there now would manage to dock by the first or second week of May while ships at Paranagua may face waits extending as far as early June, depending on which terminal they are headed for.
Waiting times were improving at Santos with the soy harvest now having past its peak, but they were still longer than at Rio Grande, depending on the terminal, Markarian said, while Ships were now arriving at a slower pace than a few weeks ago.
Though the extra cargo is a boon for Rio Grande, the grains sector is desperate for investment in railways and ports and for the extension of a highway from the Center West grains belt to closer northern ports to clear logistics bottlenecks long term.
A new river port in the state of Para reachable by that north-bound highway will be one of the first new facilities to ease transport pressures, but it won't be ready until after next year's soy harvest, meaning another tough year lies ahead.
The government has sent a new regulatory framework governing ports to Congress which aims to make the sector more attractive to private investors and it announced late last week that government agencies at the ports would begin operating 24 hours a day, to help speed the flow of cargo.
(Reporting by Peter Murphy; Editing by Leslie Gevirtz) ((Peter.Murphy@thomsonreuters.com)(+55 61 3426 7025)(Reuters Messaging:peter.murphy.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

Sunday, April 21, 2013

Agrishow 2013


With improvements in infrastructure, the next edition of Agrishow should be the best in 20 years
Over R$ 1.2 million was invested in exhibition areas, parking and access

Event will be held from April 29 to May 3

The Agrishow (International Fair of Agricultural Technology in Action) , consolidated as the main agribusiness fair in Latin America, will be held from April 29 to May 3, in Ribeirão Preto (SP), and provide infrastructure improvements in the area of 400,000 meters square.

Over R$ 1.2 million was invested in exhibition areas, parking and access. parking in visitors was increasing the number of collection booths, which will expedite the entry of vehicles and reduce queues. The internal transport visitors between the parking and the South Ordinance will be done with urban bus line, providing greater safety and comfort to visitors. There was also improvement in the coverage of the floors of the taxiways. Besides paving the floors of food courts, the visitor will have more varieties of options establishments with food per kilogram, a la carte restaurant, fast food, snack bars, steakhouses and ice cream.

 - The granting of the area for 30 years took legal uncertainty and is allowing us to implement investments to provide more comfort, flexibility and security to the visitor. Upon completing 20 years of history, Agrishow will have its biggest and best edition, says the president of the fair, Maurilio Biagi Filho. The fair is organized by the Brazilian Agribusiness Association (ABAG), the Brazilian Association of Machinery and Equipment ( Abimaq), National Association for the Promotion of Fertilizers (ANDA) and the Brazilian Rural Society (SRB).

Saturday, April 20, 2013

Kory activities the next 10 days

It has been a busy 10 days personally in Brazil, my son has been in hospital but is doing much better. It took 8 months to nail down his diagnoses but he is now on correct meds.
Everything takes time in Brazil. Brazil will teach you patience. Something I did not have the first 30 years of my life.

I have scheduled to meet with investor group from Connecticut Thursday this week.
They are looking at limestone investments in Mato Grosso.
I will give them an overview of Mato Grosso and macro potentials of Brazil
expansion.

I am headed to Ribeirao Preto, Sao Paulo on Monday April 29th. It the big ag
show there. I look forward to visiting with friends and catching up on Brazil
ag trends and machinery sales.

I am working on May newsletter and will send that out to subscribers soon.
I will include 2014 cashflows for Mato Grosso soybeans. Costs keep going higher
and soy prices stable to in a slight downtrend.  The margins are not as robust
as previous two years.

I will update as I know more. Subscribers and VIP clients are always the
first to know.