Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Sept 23 blog update

Wow Dollar is 4:1 + now. Soybeans are R$ 85/sac at port and R$ 65/sac in Sorriso, MT. Soybeans are going in the ground in Parana state. Mato Grosso and the Cerrado are literally baking to death. It feels like a nuclear reactor is leaking !!!!!!!! The forecast is for dryness to continue until early October. We now have a late planting issue again. Last year was late and it really did not make much difference in final yields. We maybe lost 1-2% on a national basis. Will this year be different? We have two scenarios unfolding in Brazil politics today. There are those that believe that President Dilma will be gone by Christmas and stability will return to Brazil FX. The other is that this soap opera has just begun and we will see Dollar:Real 5:1 in 2016. At Dollar 5:1, it is hard to wrap one´s mind around what the effect of the "Law of unintended consequences" will be? It seems like it will be a boon for soybean farmers. For some it will be. Then again, they could start to treat soybeans like a currency hedge and refuse to sell them at any price - just like Argentina. There are rumblings that the government wants to tax soybean exports like Argentina. This is insane since Brazil is taxed so many times already with Brazil costs of transport, logistics, and cost of production. But with Dollar 5:1, and a desperate government looking to shake the money tree, we can´t rule anything out. For now it is just smoke. I visited a fertilizer dealer this week. The spreadsheet he gets each day is stable in dollars per ton price quotes. When a client calls, he enters in the spot FX and the fertilizer prices convert to Reals. If you step out to cut your hair and think about the quote, the price is no longer valid when you call back. If the FX moves more than 3% per day, the whole system shuts down and will not accept new fertilizer orders until the FX closes and updates for the following day. These are volatile times in Brazil. One day you can look like a hero and the next you can have your testicles served to you on a silver platter. These feast and famine stories will be common the next 90-120 days- maybe longer. I get the feeling this is just the beginning. Drop me a note if you want to be put on a distribution list. Newsletter is one option. VIP flash updates are another. I was thinking a few months ago, this was going to boring this crop cycle. Nope, Thriller 2.0 is being cast now.

3 comments:

  1. eToro is the #1 forex broker for newbie and pro traders.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Do You Need A Loan To Consolidate Your Debt At 1.0%? SuiteCapitals@gmail.com ( SuiteCapitals@post.com ) Or A Personal Loans * Business Loans etc. Interested Parties Should Contact Us For More Information Through Via E-mail: SuiteCapitals@gmail.com ( SuiteCapitals@post.com )

    Please Fill the Application Form Below:
    - Complete Name:
    - Loan amount needed:
    - Loan Duration:
    - Purpose of loan:
    - City / Country:
    - Telephone:
    - How Did You Hear About Us:

    Do You Need A Loan To Consolidate Your Debt At 1.0%? SuiteCapitals@gmail.com ( SuiteCapitals@post.com ) Or A Personal Loans * Business Loans etc. Interested Parties Should Contact Us For More Information Through Via E-mail: SuiteCapitals@gmail.com ( SuiteCapitals@post.com )

    ReplyDelete
  3. Dear Sir,
    We are Titanium Trading Ltd with UK Company RegistrationN0: 09298674. We are the owner and seller of Gold Bullion Bar,Gold Dore Bar and Rough Diamond in small and large quantities.
    We are searching for customers /representatives/ brokers/ sellers or buyers mandates who can help us establish a medium of getting to our customers all over the world.Please, if you are interested in transacting Gold Bullion Bar,Gold Dore Bar and Rough Diamond business kindly contact us via our email address for our FCO as we are ready to sign a long lasting gold supply contract with the end buyers World wide.We are also in Joint Venture (JV) with a financial instrument provider company for BG,SBLC,MT109,MT799,MT760,discounting and project funding.In addition,we have an excellent professional relationship with many banks,stock brokers, financial institutions and consultants all over the globe. We have a proven track record of Excellence, speed and reliability. Accept our kindest regards as we move your business to the next level. Our banks will send pre advice without any upfront charges for Purchase and Lease. So if you have any gold bullion buyers that is looking for BG/SBLC,DLC/LC provider that will issue him BG/SBLC to buy our gold bullion, let us know for more details as our Joint Venture(JV)financial instrument company will handle the same.We will be glad to share our working procedures with you upon request to help us proceed towards closing deals effectively.
    David Ashley Robert Meadows
    Barking House Fardon Road,Market 
    Harborough, Leicestershire,LE16 United Kingdom
    Email.: customersinfo4ttl@gmail.com  
    Contact Phone No:  +447452391978
    WhatsApp No: +447924339472 

    We are Titanium Trading Ltd in UK, we are sourcing for buyers of gold dory bars, rough diamonds and gold bullion bars. in large and small quantities.

    ReplyDelete