Friday, October 9, 2015
The start of soybean planting is off to a slow start. The center-west region of Brazil remains hot and dry. It looks like a repeat of last year. Late planting concerns will be the hot topic the next couple weeks. Conab report came out with a 100-102 million metric ton soybean crop for 2016. With 2016 the last year farmers can legally plant soy/soy, they are probably correct with their estimate. 2017 will start the no planting of a 2nd crop of soybeans from January through September each year. The dollar has traded 4.25:1 two weeks ago and as I type this the dollar is 3.75:1. If we drop back to 3.50:1, farmers will start to complain they will lose money in 2016. For those of you that have come down on a tour in recent years, you know how much things cost when the dollar was below 2:1. If anyone is interested in a winter tour this season, we could probably add in a couple nights in Rio for the same prices as three years ago. It depends on the group size obviously. The bottom line is that US$ 5000 will get a you a little more bang for your buck than three years ago. A few days in Mato Grosso with either a Foz do Iguacu or Rio add on to your tour. We are likely in a 3.80-4.20:1 trading range with the Dollar/Real in the coming months.