Well, after 4 months of swimming against the tide, today Conab corrected
the Brazil soybean crop euphoria. This was never a 103 mmt crop. Never.
The weather situation this year was terrible. As of today, the weather is
still terrible. Hot and Dry.
Cotton and corn in Eastern MT, Goias and Bahia are suffering.
Is it a red alert yet? No
Could it be in 3 weeks? yes
Given the hell this years soybeans went thru, I am amazed we are even
talking 99 mmt yet.
FC stone adjusted their crop size lower to 97.5 mmt. This is what I have been
saying since Early December.
If it were not for Intacta II soybeans and Elatus fungicide, we would be looking
at a Brazil soybean crop in the low 90 mmt range.
IMEA will update their Mato Grosso soybean crop estimate soon. I think they will
be 27 mmt or slightly below.
The NE quadrant was ravaged this year. I feel for those guys. The NE tends to
have 7 year cycles of plenty and 7 year cycles of famine.
We are in year 4 of famine. I wrote about this in the November newsletter.
Being an agronomist and producer with experience with crop losses first hand,
it was obvious to me that the soybeans were screaming for help during these
120 deg days in December and February. They were cooked at the beginning
and cooked at the end. Poor seeds that were cooked in storage did not have vigor,
and some farmers cut costs by not spraying fungicides and insecticides while their
crop was burning up. I would have done the same thing. Screw it.
For those that had a good crop. My hat goes off to you. Those who got the extra rain,
have clay soils, and poored the money into the crop had some 60 sac soybeans.
I guess we can grow soybeans on 1200 mm of rain if they are timed right.
Those with sand, never had a chance. Brazil has a lot of sand in the frontier areas.
I have been to them all and helped shovel out a 4X4 pick up stuck in sand as though we
were in 3 ft of snow. Land like this is worthless in a year like this.
It needs to stay PASTURE !!!!!!!!!!!!! FOREVER!!!!!
The corn production forecasts as of today are reasonable, but if rains shut off
for 3-4 weeks, the 2nd crop corn is also overstated.
Below is a snap shot of the newsletter I sent out the end of January after my crop tour.
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