Sunday, September 21, 2014

Election in two weeks

The dollar is trading 2:38:1-  wow

President Dilma is campaigning on a platform "It could get worse, if you don´t vote for me!!"

The Twilight zone continues.

The election will be a defining moment for Brazil and specifically Brazil Ag.

If Dilma is re-elected, we will see a continuation of the status quo.
Stagflation:  Inflation with no growth

If Marina is elected, this could be good for a few sectors.
But I cringe to think of the paralysis in the Amazon regions.
I fear nothing will happen as per projects.

Soybean planting has started. Nice rains in Parana.
Farmers are fearful of their futures.

Mato Grosso is going with throttle up.
To where, we don´t know today.
We have US$ 7.00/bu soy locally out there.
It might be a situation where we are cooking with gas and burning wood.

or in other words:

We are dumping a lot of resources in the ground the next 90 days
and we might burn a lot of wood to dry wet soybeans the world
says we now have too much of.

Lots of questions in the next 2 to 5 weeks.

I sense more questions that answers. For everyone.
Rich, poor, middle class, land buyers, investors, speculators.

Now what?

Of my 13 years here, Brazil is the most nebulous I have ever seen her.

This could be two fold, Brazil is much more complex than 13 years ago.


I was blind and innocent 13 years ago, it all seemed so much simpler.
Ignorance is bliss?

I am less ignorant today?

I don´t know.

But sure am enjoying the show.

The one thing I do know with certainty, that if Brazil produces
95 mmt + of soybeans this year, they will wish on their tombstones that
they never did.

If only Brazil could have stand pat instead of expand.
God, I hope China is hungry. 72 mmt do I hear 75 mmt?
Going once, going twice, sold for ________________

Bidders number?