I am headed to Mato Grosso Friday for 9 days.
I will be doing my own crop tour and updating clients
in my November newsletter due out Nov 17th time frame.
For those of you that have contacted me regarding a 2015
soybean harvest and corn planting tour, time is of the essence.
Harvest will be a bit later than normal this year.
The full push harvest will not get going until the end of January.
February will be complete chaos. Rains, harvest, drying, planting,
and lack of storage. Truck lines as far as you can see.
Carnival is Feb 13-17th. Arriving during this time can be
time consuming and costly. It is best to arrive well before or
after Carnival.
Early and late February will be the optimal times to get a real time
grasp of yields and planting potentials for 2nd crop corn.
Late planted corn combined with no rain in April 2015 would mean
a wipe out for the 2nd crop. There is no more "cushion" left for this
years crop cycle. Things must unfold normally from here on out to maintain
par.
What a difference a month makes. I told clients in September I would
remain conservative as to Brazil´s soybean crop potential. 93 million tons
has been my number.
Most everyone else was higher. Now with recent adjustments made by some,
I am now the optimistic one. For now I stand pat on my number until I see
differently.
With all the soybeans in the world, a 10 million ton drop does not really matter to
the markets. A 20 million ton drop would stop the decline and trade sideways
with an upward bias. It still would not be a bull market.
We are in a bear until events prove it otherwise.
Flash updates will be sent out to subscribers while I am on tour.
Drop me a note at agturbobrazil@yahoo.com for more info.
Kory
