http://www.brazilintl.com/agland/farms4sale/01/0101.htm#.UrgLV9JDtl6
Drop me a note for more info.
Kory
Monday, December 23, 2013
Sunday, December 1, 2013
Lucas do Rio Verde ag show March 25-28
For those interested in an early ag show in Brazil combined with
Mato Grosso tour, the new Show Safra 163 March 25-28 is the
perfect option.
They are combining two shows and making one.
Hotels will be limited. Book early.
All other big ag shows are April and June.
It is difficult for many to get way.
FYI
Mato Grosso tour, the new Show Safra 163 March 25-28 is the
perfect option.
They are combining two shows and making one.
Hotels will be limited. Book early.
All other big ag shows are April and June.
It is difficult for many to get way.
FYI
Monday, November 18, 2013
Soybean bugs
I am headed to Mato Grosso on Friday.
There has been some news talk of the attack of the
caterpillars in some locals.
I am not too worried about the bugs. They can be
controlled. It might cost some extra money on a year
with thin cash flows, but I would not lose any sleep
over them.
Bahia and Parana have been on the cusp of too dry
of late. This is not a Def Con concern at this point.
Western Mato Grosso is also talking about limited stands
because of early germination issues. Maybe the possibility
of losing 1 or 2 bushel per acre potential. Again, not a
Def Con issue.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DEFCON
Two years ago, subscribers remember when I went to
Def Con 2 on the drought seriousness at the time.
I think we are still looking at a wicked big crop.
It all depends on if we plant 500,000 or 1 million ha
of double crop soy.
Thy Soy Cup Runneth Over.
The soybean crop is fine.
More later when on the road.
There has been some news talk of the attack of the
caterpillars in some locals.
I am not too worried about the bugs. They can be
controlled. It might cost some extra money on a year
with thin cash flows, but I would not lose any sleep
over them.
Bahia and Parana have been on the cusp of too dry
of late. This is not a Def Con concern at this point.
Western Mato Grosso is also talking about limited stands
because of early germination issues. Maybe the possibility
of losing 1 or 2 bushel per acre potential. Again, not a
Def Con issue.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DEFCON
Two years ago, subscribers remember when I went to
Def Con 2 on the drought seriousness at the time.
I think we are still looking at a wicked big crop.
It all depends on if we plant 500,000 or 1 million ha
of double crop soy.
Thy Soy Cup Runneth Over.
The soybean crop is fine.
More later when on the road.
Thursday, October 31, 2013
Bunge -Maggi Joint venture barge traffic on Tapajos River
http://www.scotconsultoria.com.br/noticias/agronegocio-na-midia/32565/bunge-e-amaggi-criam-empresa-de-navegacao.htm
The American multinational Bunge and Amaggi - André Maggi Group company, the senator and former governor of Mato Grosso, Maggi - just created a joint venture inland waterway transport in the country.
The Navigations Nations Tapajós (Unitapajós) will be responsible for the transport of grain from Mato Grosso the waterway Tapajós-Amazon to Santarém (PA), an alternative lower cost to businesses. With an initial investment of
R$ 300 million, equally divided, the company will build 90 barges and 5 tugboats.
The Unitapajós intends flow approximately 3.7 million tons of grain in three to four years and should start operating already this season of 2013/14.
Source: Economic Value. By Bettina Barros. October 30, 2013.
This is a really neat development.
The barges may beat the train project to functionality.
This will help knock a few miles off the truck route to Santarem.
There are hydro-electric dams either planned or being built up stream
from this point.
The irony is that the past few years, Mato Grosso has been surging
at a rate of 4 to 6 million tons of crops per year.
Thus this new idea only deals with 10% of the growing problem.
But this will help take the pressure off of the southern ports
in time.
This is one small step for soybeans-a giant leap for soybean-landia.
Sunday, October 20, 2013
Fiesp 2023 Brazil soybean production projection
Here is a chart from a recent Fiesp presentation.
They are thinking that Brazil will be at 119 million tons
of soybeans by 2023.
Given recent expansion rates, it should be no
problem to get there. BUT, we need shipping
logistics and soybeans in Chicago to stay above
10 dollars/bu and preferably 11 dollars/bu consistently
to foresee these volumes come to fruition.
They are thinking that Brazil will be at 119 million tons
of soybeans by 2023.
Given recent expansion rates, it should be no
problem to get there. BUT, we need shipping
logistics and soybeans in Chicago to stay above
10 dollars/bu and preferably 11 dollars/bu consistently
to foresee these volumes come to fruition.
Saturday, October 12, 2013
What is new?
The month has been crazy.
After an 18 month ordeal clients of mine closed on a land purchase in
Mato Grosso. It took a dynamic team, money, patience, and an
emotional fortitude that many do not possess. It takes trust with
Brazilian counterparts to finesse difficult situations and obstacles.
Something always pops up in Brazil.
On top of that were some personal surprises.
Medical procedures for my son where the reception forgets
to schedule an anesthesiologist. A root canal for myself.
And to cap it off but good, a prank call from kidnappers
saying they have my son and want a ransom. This call
came while he was at school. One sees one´s life pass
in front of you when dealing with kidnappers for 10 minutes.
It really rattles the nerves.
Brazil has increased its benchmark interest rate to 9.5%.
They say 10% is soon to come.
I read in local paper that credit for buying a new car
is much more difficult to get than last year during the
stimulus phase. Goiania has record number of car
Re-po´s at the moment. A sign of the times.
Apartment prices seem strong yet. I wonder for how
much longer. Neighbors of mine that are typical middle
class. He is a professor and wife manages the car wash.
They made a down payment on an R$ 800,000 earlier
this year. The building will be ready in 2016.
I visited this hole in the ground last week. The apartment
design is fantastic. I was told there was one unit left.
I said I can´t afford this. This is the same apartment building
that my neighbor bought. I have had a difficulty getting R$70
a month out of them for garage rent for their 2nd car. I had
extra spot for them. How the hell are they gonna pay for
R$800,000 apartment? It is so easy- make a small down payment
and then monthly payments for 3 years and then a big balloon in three
years? Then what? boom?
This real estate market in Brazil is looking more and more
like USA market circa 2006-2007.
By now some of you want some soybean gossip.
Planting has started and we are off to a good start.
Rains have been good and crop is off to nice start.
The biggest problem will be the carryover of the 2nd crop
corn in many locals. Many are hoping to set a cup of milk
out next to a pile of corn and hope like hell Santa takes
the corn with him Christmas eve. New crop soy will be ready
Janaury 1, 2014. Record crops are expected in all regions
and there is simply not enough storage.
Expansion and productivity are out running the grain merchandisers
ability to build mega- warehouses fast enough.
Brazil is burying herself in corn and soy.
Sure hope China is hungry.
Local prices for 2014 soybean crop for Mato Grosso is about
R$43/sac or US$ 9.00/bushel.
yes, - 4 dollars basis. I will repeat minus 4 dollar basis to CBOT.
enough said
Cash flows are running tighter than last two years. There still is
a nice return over variable costs, but if we add in land and depreciation costs,
we are looking at a break even scenario.
Stores are starting to put out Christmas decorations here. Tis the season?
I have increased the price of newsletter for newcomers. I tend to
send out a daily Brazil nugget about something or another for
either Brazil or Argentina. I am trying to focus my energies on my
VIP client list.
School year ends here December 6th. I plan to be at Rio Quente
soon thereafter for a break. If time and finances allow, I will take
family to Disney/Orlando in January.
I have an executive Mato Grosso tour scheduled for mid February
from Washington, DC and NYC.
At the current time, it looks like South America is going to
produce so many soybeans that the earth will like flip over
on her axis by March 2014. It won´t be a magnetic pole shift. It
will be called the soybean shift in the agricultural history books
of the future. 2014- the year the protein shift took place........
After an 18 month ordeal clients of mine closed on a land purchase in
Mato Grosso. It took a dynamic team, money, patience, and an
emotional fortitude that many do not possess. It takes trust with
Brazilian counterparts to finesse difficult situations and obstacles.
Something always pops up in Brazil.
On top of that were some personal surprises.
Medical procedures for my son where the reception forgets
to schedule an anesthesiologist. A root canal for myself.
And to cap it off but good, a prank call from kidnappers
saying they have my son and want a ransom. This call
came while he was at school. One sees one´s life pass
in front of you when dealing with kidnappers for 10 minutes.
It really rattles the nerves.
Brazil has increased its benchmark interest rate to 9.5%.
They say 10% is soon to come.
I read in local paper that credit for buying a new car
is much more difficult to get than last year during the
stimulus phase. Goiania has record number of car
Re-po´s at the moment. A sign of the times.
Apartment prices seem strong yet. I wonder for how
much longer. Neighbors of mine that are typical middle
class. He is a professor and wife manages the car wash.
They made a down payment on an R$ 800,000 earlier
this year. The building will be ready in 2016.
I visited this hole in the ground last week. The apartment
design is fantastic. I was told there was one unit left.
I said I can´t afford this. This is the same apartment building
that my neighbor bought. I have had a difficulty getting R$70
a month out of them for garage rent for their 2nd car. I had
extra spot for them. How the hell are they gonna pay for
R$800,000 apartment? It is so easy- make a small down payment
and then monthly payments for 3 years and then a big balloon in three
years? Then what? boom?
This real estate market in Brazil is looking more and more
like USA market circa 2006-2007.
By now some of you want some soybean gossip.
Planting has started and we are off to a good start.
Rains have been good and crop is off to nice start.
The biggest problem will be the carryover of the 2nd crop
corn in many locals. Many are hoping to set a cup of milk
out next to a pile of corn and hope like hell Santa takes
the corn with him Christmas eve. New crop soy will be ready
Janaury 1, 2014. Record crops are expected in all regions
and there is simply not enough storage.
Expansion and productivity are out running the grain merchandisers
ability to build mega- warehouses fast enough.
Brazil is burying herself in corn and soy.
Sure hope China is hungry.
Local prices for 2014 soybean crop for Mato Grosso is about
R$43/sac or US$ 9.00/bushel.
yes, - 4 dollars basis. I will repeat minus 4 dollar basis to CBOT.
enough said
Cash flows are running tighter than last two years. There still is
a nice return over variable costs, but if we add in land and depreciation costs,
we are looking at a break even scenario.
Stores are starting to put out Christmas decorations here. Tis the season?
I have increased the price of newsletter for newcomers. I tend to
send out a daily Brazil nugget about something or another for
either Brazil or Argentina. I am trying to focus my energies on my
VIP client list.
School year ends here December 6th. I plan to be at Rio Quente
soon thereafter for a break. If time and finances allow, I will take
family to Disney/Orlando in January.
I have an executive Mato Grosso tour scheduled for mid February
from Washington, DC and NYC.
At the current time, it looks like South America is going to
produce so many soybeans that the earth will like flip over
on her axis by March 2014. It won´t be a magnetic pole shift. It
will be called the soybean shift in the agricultural history books
of the future. 2014- the year the protein shift took place........
Wednesday, September 25, 2013
Mato Grosso corn ethanol mill
Growing investment in ethanol production from corn
By Gerson Freitas Jr. and Fabiana Batista | De Sao Paulo
Joao Brito / Value / Joao Brito / Valor
Franz of Fiagril says that corn ethanol is competitive with cane
After much to enhance the economic and environmental advantages of ethanol from sugar cane over that produced from corn on a large scale in the United States , Brazil may be about to replicate - at least partly - the American model .
Given the enormous difficulty to digest the dizzying growth of corn production in Mato Grosso in recent years , entrepreneurs make to take account of the role of plants capable of turning grain into biofuel .
If successful , the strategy can mean an alternative energy source for North Central Brazil , where fuel prices are the highest across the country - and a way to achieve at least part of the still huge potential for expansion of maize production in Mato Grosso .
Fiagril a soybean crusher national capital , based on Lucas do Rio Verde , plans to invest U.S. $ 100 million
(R$ 230 million ) to produce corn ethanol by 2015 .
The company plans to build a plant with a capacity to crush 500,000 tons of grain per year , sufficient to produce up to 200 million liters of biofuel .
If completed , will be the first ethanol plant in the country designed exclusively for crushing corn. Currently , two plants of cane sugar in the state - and Usimat Libra Ethanol - are adapted to process the grain .
The intention is to fund Fiagril up to 80 % of the investment from the Fund for the Development of Amazonia ( FDA ) and the Constitutional Fund for Financing the Midwest ( FCO ) .
According to co-founder of Fiagril Marino Franz , the lines have been secured and the agreements should be signed with Banco do Brazil later this year . The expectation , he says, is to start building the plant by April 2014 and complete it in 18 months .
The processing technology to be adopted in the plant belongs to the ICM , one equipment manufacturer from Kansas , USA , that provides for at least one hundred plants in the Midwest .
Currently , Mato Grosso produces just under 1 billion liters of ethanol from sugar cane . Franz says that biofuel corn is competitive with the cane . " With the price of maize at R$ 13 per bag [ minimum price guarantee in the state ] , we have a margin of up to 20 % compared to sugarcane ethanol sold in the state." In Sorriso , the price of corn fell below R $ 8 last week , according to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (IMEA )
The bill, ponders , takes into account the income generated by a by-product of high added value - DDGS ( abbreviation for Dry Distillery Waste Containing Soluble ) - which can be used as a substitute for soybean meal . Each ton of corn can be transformed up to 400 liters of ethanol and 330 kilos of DDGS .
Amaggi , a company controlled by the family of Senator Maggi also makes plans to build a plant , although it has not completed feasibility studies .
As Maggi , the uncertainty lies in the cost of energy needed to power the plant . " This is our main question mark. Lack of energy balance to account ." Maggi remember that the plants sugar cane generate their own energy by burning bagasse . The corn plants , in contrast, rely on other sources of biomass , such as charcoal and grass .
" This is a problem that each plant will have to solve. Amaggi has 5000 hectares planted with eucalyptus trees , which could be used to fuel our plant at least until we have shale gas , which should happen in a period of ten years , "said the senator, referring to the gas reserves of the state.
Fiagril says it will encourage the planting of 5000 hectares of eucalyptus and grass , through long-term contracts with farmers to feed the plant. The idea is to encourage these crops in areas sandier , unfit for planting grain .
The project financing corn ethanol has been the subject of some polling firms with BNDES , according to information from the Head of Biofuels from state development bank , Carlos Eduardo Cavalcanti .
The executive said that the matter is being discussed internally , but , although the rate institution that makes sense this kind of business before the need for greater supply of liquid fuels in the country , was prompted companies to a more well-founded on the economic conditions of projects .
For farmers , which more than tripled corn harvest the last three years - from 6.9 million to 21.9 million tons - and now rely on subsidies to transport this production , ethanol is seen as a way to give support to increase production - still small relative to the potential of the State .
Only in 2013 /14, the federal government should spend more than R$ 1 billion to support the marketing of grain in the state through direct purchases and grants . " Mato Grosso just do not plant more corn because it has to sell and whom to sell , but do not lose much in planting corn because it is necessary to rotate with soybeans and cotton ," says Maggi .
Senator argues that the cost of amortization of investment in corn ethanol may be less than the cane , since the plants would integrate the current system of agricultural production in the State . " The Americans were very smart in deploying the plants in the fields of grain . Unlike cane sugar, which requires a whole new infrastructure , corn is only necessary to make the plant " .
In less than a decade , the United States increased by more than 100 million tons of corn production just to meet the ambitious targets of ethanol blending with gasoline . However , the American program was supported in a term that in practice , created a market reserve for biofuel .
Without such an incentive , the outlook for ethanol Mato Grosso are far more modest . At first , says Franz , corn ethanol would be competitive in markets such as the states of Mato Grosso , Pará , Acre and Amazonas .
According to the National Petroleum Agency ( ANP ) , these countries consumed last year about 2.2 billion liters of gasoline and about 1.1 billion liters of ethanol ( between the anhydrous mixed with gasoline , and hydrous sold to the consumer at the pump ) . It is, therefore, a small market compared to the national order of 20 billion liters , largely fueled by sugarcane mills in the Center- South .
Wednesday, September 11, 2013
Incra authorizes acquisition of land by foreigners
http://agricultura.ruralbr.com.br/noticia/2013/09/incra-autoriza-aquisicoes-de-terras-por-estrangeiros-4265141.html
9.11.2013 | 8:58 a.m
Subject: AgricultureAgribusinessCountryPolicyAgrarian Question
Incra authorizes acquisition of land by foreigners
Lands are located in the states of Goiás, Mato Grosso and Minas Gerais
Property in Mato Grosso is intended for grain production
Incra Ordinances published in the Official Gazette of last Monday, the 9th, authorize the acquisition by foreigners, three rural areas in the country. The properties are located in the states of Goiás, Mato Grosso and Minas Gerais.
The authorization requirements were approved by the board of the municipality at the last regular meeting of the joint committee on August 23. These are the first approvals for the purchase of land after the entry into force of Instruction Joint (INC) No. 1 - ministries Agrarian Development (MDA), Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA), Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC) and Tourism, and the Incra.
Published in September 2012, the INC regulates procedures for the acquisition and leasing of land by foreigners and brings one of the main settings the elements to be included in called Project Exploration. Expected in Law No. 5.909/71, but until then, without normalization, Project Exploration is necessary in case of purchase or lease, for foreign individual, area over 20 exploration modules indefinite (MEI).
The size of the MEI varies from five to 70 ha, according to the county location of the property. When it comes to foreign legal entity or a Brazilian entity treated as a foreign project presentation independent of the size of the area.
This is the case of two entrances authorization published. In Goiás, the MIH Finance Ltda. - Brazilian company treated as a foreign legal entity, with 99.99% equity New Zealand - had approval to acquire Fazenda Bom Sucesso I, II, III and IV, located in the city of Crisallina.
The property is 854.75 hectares (equivalent to 85.47 MEI) and as the project - appreciated by the Superintendency for the Development of the Midwest (Sudeco) and approved by the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA) - behave activity dairy farming.
SB Agrícola Ltda., the majority of capital owned company incorporated under the laws of U.S. states, was authorized to obtain part of Fazenda Rio Norte, located in the municipalities of Porto dos Gauchos and Itanhangá in Mato Grosso. The project presented for 2194.0448 hectares to be acquired (a total of 4300 ha) was approved by the Map and refers to grain cultivation.
Another area to be obtained by foreigners, through a consortium, is undivided Farm Santa Adelaide, property Fazenda Terra Mater, in the municipality of São Gonçalo do Sapucai, and Minas Gerais.
The area of 112.8389 hectares, equivalent to 7.52 MEI. The two parties have Chilean nationality. authorizations are valid for 30 days so that it provided the drafting of the deed, and another 15 days for the registration of the property in the district housing authority. Purchases are monitored by the National Acquisition and Leasing Land by Foreigners (Sisnate), integrated into the National Register of Rural Property (SNCR), Incra base under management contained in the entire Brazilian agrarian structure declared by the owners and has 5.8 million registered properties.
Saturday, August 24, 2013
Peak protein follow up from July 2012
With recent market action and weekend weather forecasts for USA,
it got me to thinking about a newsletter I wrote back in July 2012.
I posed the question of Peak Protein? What would it look like?
USA was in full drought mode. Brazil and Argentina were left with
job to fill in the global soybean needs.
The markets rallied until Sept 4th, 2012 and basically
did what they needed to do.
With a big USA crop for 2013, all problems solved. right?
We now see crop size estimates for USA soybeans at 3.1 billion bu.
With strong demand, USA needs every last bushel.
Deja vu? 2012
With late season hot, dry weather the odds of a smaller soybean
crop are increasing. Could the crop be smaller than 2012?
That does not seem possible???
Carryover for 2013 soybeans into 2014 will now be as tight as the
previous season.
Brazil and Argentina will respond with bells on. wink wink....
In the USA, there will be perceived shortages again in summer 2014.
Brazil and Argentina et al will harvest 160 million ton in the interim.
The globe will have plenty but spots like USA will not have enough
cheap soybean meal.
The same logistical nightmares will all repeat again in South America.
Roads, trucks, strikes, ports etc, etc.......
We have a scenario of peak protein again. The world in general
cannot get ahead of the demand curve. Shipping of soybeans is always
"Just in time".
If USA only produces 3 billion bushels again for 2013, the world
needs to depend on South America one more time.
Brazil must fill in the holes in the soybean demand DAM.
It should be no problem, but what if???? fill in the blank.
Excerpt from JULY 2012 newsletter
it got me to thinking about a newsletter I wrote back in July 2012.
I posed the question of Peak Protein? What would it look like?
USA was in full drought mode. Brazil and Argentina were left with
job to fill in the global soybean needs.
The markets rallied until Sept 4th, 2012 and basically
did what they needed to do.
With a big USA crop for 2013, all problems solved. right?
We now see crop size estimates for USA soybeans at 3.1 billion bu.
With strong demand, USA needs every last bushel.
Deja vu? 2012
With late season hot, dry weather the odds of a smaller soybean
crop are increasing. Could the crop be smaller than 2012?
That does not seem possible???
Carryover for 2013 soybeans into 2014 will now be as tight as the
previous season.
Brazil and Argentina will respond with bells on. wink wink....
In the USA, there will be perceived shortages again in summer 2014.
Brazil and Argentina et al will harvest 160 million ton in the interim.
The globe will have plenty but spots like USA will not have enough
cheap soybean meal.
The same logistical nightmares will all repeat again in South America.
Roads, trucks, strikes, ports etc, etc.......
We have a scenario of peak protein again. The world in general
cannot get ahead of the demand curve. Shipping of soybeans is always
"Just in time".
If USA only produces 3 billion bushels again for 2013, the world
needs to depend on South America one more time.
Brazil must fill in the holes in the soybean demand DAM.
It should be no problem, but what if???? fill in the blank.
Excerpt from JULY 2012 newsletter
Sunday, August 18, 2013
Aug 18 update
The dollar made it to 2.38 Friday.
Who wudda thunk?
Overnight we had a light shower of rain. This is rare for mid August.
Last year it was hot and dry for 6 weeks prior to the rainy season.
This is a refreshing change.
I think back to two years ago when the dollar was 1.55:1.
It seemed like it was not possible to earn enough dollars
to make a living. Meanwhile, Brazilians were filling up the
airplanes and heading to Florida to visit Mickey and stock
up on school supplies. Yes, it made sense for Brazilians to
fly to Miami to buy school stuff for their kids. The difference
in price paid for the trip.
I try and liken this to a family from interior Minnesota that
takes the family to Sao Paulo to buy school supplies
for their kids??? That would never happen, right?
"International Crazy Days"
One can look back and see the insanity of the dollar at 1.55:1
that made it seem rational to load up the family and head to
Florida just to buy things that originally were made in China.
Something was out of whack!!!!!!!!!!
It was perfect timing. A growing middle class with a
strong demand surge in the Brazilian economy timed
with the global economic crisis and stimulus reaction on
a global scale. All those Obama dollars that were being printed
ended up in Brazil for about two years in Brazil bank notes earning
a nice return. Banks lent out money like candy to consumers and
developers.
The Brazil hype was also at its peak. New oil discoveries combined
with new factories being built to make Ipads, cars, trucks, and industrial
components.
We are now on the flip side. It seems like there are no positive
Brazil news items. I expect we are in a correction period for 1-2 years.
For Brazil agriculture the increase in the dollar from 2:1 to 2.25 means
an increase in the cost of production. With the jump to 2.40, it means the
price of soybeans for 2014 will have an underlying support based in Reals.
Cash flows for 2014 are tight based in dollar terms.
With recent positive price action in Chicago combined with a declining
REAL, farmers are pricing soybeans aggressively. Soybeans are about the
only crop that works for 2014. Cotton will be back in the black but has little
affect on soybean area.
We will see an increase in soy area once again in Brazil. How much?
28.5 million hectares seems to be in the bag. The question will be if we
can stretch that number to 29.5 million hectares.
85 million tons of soybeans would seem to be in the bag. With good weather
and massive area, could that number jump to 89-90 million tons? Yes
Corn for export is the main concern now. Push as many tons out the door
before the USA crop comes online.
This last season was a complete disaster as per soy and corn logistics and
the 2nd crop corn carryover will be with us into early 2014. If the rains start
early this year so everyone can start planting on Sept 15th, we will have new
crop soybeans at Christmas. We will be piling soybeans on top of the corn-
literally........
BR 163 to the north is not done to help with shipping of products
north for Mato Grosso. Bidding on the railroad work is said to happen
in the 2nd half of 2013. I once thought that the railroad would have come
online just in time to save Mato Grosso producer "butts" about in 2014.
The irony will be that for 2014; Mato Grosso producers will luck out
one more time on cashflows not because of Brazil´s infrastructure and
planning, but because of the lack of it. A screwed up economy can
play well into the hands of the producers. 2.25 to 2.50 Dollar:Real can
save them one more time.
The flip side of this can be much higher cost of production going into
2015. Imports etc. But now the Potassium fertilizer market has shown
signs of cracking and this can also help the Cerrado farmer big time.
Fertilizer is about 30% of cash flow and Potassium represents half
of that percentage. The question will be if Potassium pricing can drop
as fast as the Real is dropping to offset the cost increase in dollar terms.
The excitement continues in Brazil. Just when one crisis is leading
you one way, another pops up and saves the day.
Good Luck with harvest in Northern latitudes.
We are less than 30 days from planting new crop soy here.
Who wudda thunk?
Overnight we had a light shower of rain. This is rare for mid August.
Last year it was hot and dry for 6 weeks prior to the rainy season.
This is a refreshing change.
I think back to two years ago when the dollar was 1.55:1.
It seemed like it was not possible to earn enough dollars
to make a living. Meanwhile, Brazilians were filling up the
airplanes and heading to Florida to visit Mickey and stock
up on school supplies. Yes, it made sense for Brazilians to
fly to Miami to buy school stuff for their kids. The difference
in price paid for the trip.
I try and liken this to a family from interior Minnesota that
takes the family to Sao Paulo to buy school supplies
for their kids??? That would never happen, right?
"International Crazy Days"
One can look back and see the insanity of the dollar at 1.55:1
that made it seem rational to load up the family and head to
Florida just to buy things that originally were made in China.
Something was out of whack!!!!!!!!!!
It was perfect timing. A growing middle class with a
strong demand surge in the Brazilian economy timed
with the global economic crisis and stimulus reaction on
a global scale. All those Obama dollars that were being printed
ended up in Brazil for about two years in Brazil bank notes earning
a nice return. Banks lent out money like candy to consumers and
developers.
The Brazil hype was also at its peak. New oil discoveries combined
with new factories being built to make Ipads, cars, trucks, and industrial
components.
We are now on the flip side. It seems like there are no positive
Brazil news items. I expect we are in a correction period for 1-2 years.
For Brazil agriculture the increase in the dollar from 2:1 to 2.25 means
an increase in the cost of production. With the jump to 2.40, it means the
price of soybeans for 2014 will have an underlying support based in Reals.
Cash flows for 2014 are tight based in dollar terms.
With recent positive price action in Chicago combined with a declining
REAL, farmers are pricing soybeans aggressively. Soybeans are about the
only crop that works for 2014. Cotton will be back in the black but has little
affect on soybean area.
We will see an increase in soy area once again in Brazil. How much?
28.5 million hectares seems to be in the bag. The question will be if we
can stretch that number to 29.5 million hectares.
85 million tons of soybeans would seem to be in the bag. With good weather
and massive area, could that number jump to 89-90 million tons? Yes
Corn for export is the main concern now. Push as many tons out the door
before the USA crop comes online.
This last season was a complete disaster as per soy and corn logistics and
the 2nd crop corn carryover will be with us into early 2014. If the rains start
early this year so everyone can start planting on Sept 15th, we will have new
crop soybeans at Christmas. We will be piling soybeans on top of the corn-
literally........
BR 163 to the north is not done to help with shipping of products
north for Mato Grosso. Bidding on the railroad work is said to happen
in the 2nd half of 2013. I once thought that the railroad would have come
online just in time to save Mato Grosso producer "butts" about in 2014.
The irony will be that for 2014; Mato Grosso producers will luck out
one more time on cashflows not because of Brazil´s infrastructure and
planning, but because of the lack of it. A screwed up economy can
play well into the hands of the producers. 2.25 to 2.50 Dollar:Real can
save them one more time.
The flip side of this can be much higher cost of production going into
2015. Imports etc. But now the Potassium fertilizer market has shown
signs of cracking and this can also help the Cerrado farmer big time.
Fertilizer is about 30% of cash flow and Potassium represents half
of that percentage. The question will be if Potassium pricing can drop
as fast as the Real is dropping to offset the cost increase in dollar terms.
The excitement continues in Brazil. Just when one crisis is leading
you one way, another pops up and saves the day.
Good Luck with harvest in Northern latitudes.
We are less than 30 days from planting new crop soy here.
Wednesday, August 7, 2013
Excerpt from June 6th Conab special report
Old crop was a different animal this past year but new crop peaked as expected.
Friday, July 26, 2013
July 26 comments
It has been an interesting week in Brazil for late July.
The Pope is here.
The wheat in southern Brazil froze along with many
other delicate crops such as fruits, veggies and
coffee trees.
I am in central Brazil. The last two nights we have
seen temps down to 10 deg Celsius or about 50 deg F.
We have been using the thick blankets. I bought them
1 year ago when it was 90 deg one day. It seemed
insane at the time, but we have been thankful for
them this week.
This is odd to have cool temps this late in the year.
If it is to get cool in these parts, it tends to happen
around the summer/winter solstice on June 21.
It is unheard of to have cool temps the end of July.
Back home in Northern MN it is also cool. They are
saying lows of about 40 deg for July 27 and 28th.
That is also a little bit batty.
Corn in Mato Grosso is 2 dollars per bushel spot.
Gov´t has kicked in with auctions to help move
the stuff. This will take time.
Safras says that soybean area for 2014 for Brazil
will be 28.9 million hectares. 1st and 2nd crop
corn area will be lower.
I have sent out 3 newsletters lately.
1. Land price evolution.
2. Acreage shift to soybeans over the last two years- from where to which crops
3. 2014 soybean cashflows for Mato Grosso 3 year analysis.
I have increased the cost of newsletter and flash updates.
For old subscribers I will honor earlier pricing.
Going forward I will tend to focus on my VIP clients
needs. Daily updates, port data, and specific
emails and research on a particular issue or data point.
Issues that are trending in Brazil at a specific time of year.
Machinery sales, fertilizer trends, land prices, and profit
and loss potential of various sectors.
The blog will become more active once planting
starts Sept 15th.
The year is zipping along quickly.
Good luck to those who have late planted crops.
Weather guys I watch are saying a chance for early
frosts in the Great lakes area in Sept.
The Pope is here.
The wheat in southern Brazil froze along with many
other delicate crops such as fruits, veggies and
coffee trees.
I am in central Brazil. The last two nights we have
seen temps down to 10 deg Celsius or about 50 deg F.
We have been using the thick blankets. I bought them
1 year ago when it was 90 deg one day. It seemed
insane at the time, but we have been thankful for
them this week.
This is odd to have cool temps this late in the year.
If it is to get cool in these parts, it tends to happen
around the summer/winter solstice on June 21.
It is unheard of to have cool temps the end of July.
Back home in Northern MN it is also cool. They are
saying lows of about 40 deg for July 27 and 28th.
That is also a little bit batty.
Corn in Mato Grosso is 2 dollars per bushel spot.
Gov´t has kicked in with auctions to help move
the stuff. This will take time.
Safras says that soybean area for 2014 for Brazil
will be 28.9 million hectares. 1st and 2nd crop
corn area will be lower.
I have sent out 3 newsletters lately.
1. Land price evolution.
2. Acreage shift to soybeans over the last two years- from where to which crops
3. 2014 soybean cashflows for Mato Grosso 3 year analysis.
I have increased the cost of newsletter and flash updates.
For old subscribers I will honor earlier pricing.
Going forward I will tend to focus on my VIP clients
needs. Daily updates, port data, and specific
emails and research on a particular issue or data point.
Issues that are trending in Brazil at a specific time of year.
Machinery sales, fertilizer trends, land prices, and profit
and loss potential of various sectors.
The blog will become more active once planting
starts Sept 15th.
The year is zipping along quickly.
Good luck to those who have late planted crops.
Weather guys I watch are saying a chance for early
frosts in the Great lakes area in Sept.
Tuesday, July 16, 2013
Sunday, July 14, 2013
Sunday, July 7, 2013
July 7
Conab report July 9th. I will send out report.
Corn prices are now US$ 2.00 per bushel in Mato Grosso.
National strikes are being set for July 11th across the nation.
A Jatropha project that I have been watching thru the years
in Mato Grosso has been shut down.
Trees are being pulled up and the area will be planted to soybeans.
The elevator where the jatropha seeds were being stored
now has corn in it.
Hard to find a positive news item about Brazil these days.
The polarity has shifted.
I don´t think they are even saving kittens in Brazil these days.
Brazil got ahead of herself, time for correction and re-grouping of sorts.
How that will play out or what it will look like in two years is a crap shoot
these days.
Corn prices are now US$ 2.00 per bushel in Mato Grosso.
National strikes are being set for July 11th across the nation.
A Jatropha project that I have been watching thru the years
in Mato Grosso has been shut down.
Trees are being pulled up and the area will be planted to soybeans.
The elevator where the jatropha seeds were being stored
now has corn in it.
Hard to find a positive news item about Brazil these days.
The polarity has shifted.
I don´t think they are even saving kittens in Brazil these days.
Brazil got ahead of herself, time for correction and re-grouping of sorts.
How that will play out or what it will look like in two years is a crap shoot
these days.
Wednesday, June 26, 2013
DJ Brazil's Congress Acts on Reforms as New Protests Loom
DJ Brazil's Congress Acts on Reforms as New Protests Loom
By Tom Murphy
SAO PAULO--In a series of votes Tuesday night and into the early hours
Wednesday, Brazil's Congress began efforts to approve social and political
reforms, even as protestors prepared a new round of demonstrations for later
Wednesday.
Brazil's Chamber of Deputies voted in favor of legislation that would
dedicate royalties from massive offshore oil reserves to public education and
health. The bill gives 75% of such revenue to education and 25% to health. The
legislation must now be approved by the Senate, where it is likely to pass.
dedicate royalties from massive offshore oil reserves to public education and
health. The bill gives 75% of such revenue to education and 25% to health. The
legislation must now be approved by the Senate, where it is likely to pass.
By a lopsided vote, the Chamber of Deputies defeated a proposed
constitutional amendment that would have limited the power of prosecutors to
investigate cases of corruption. The proposal was extremely unpopular with
voters and has been a frequent target of the protests that have rocked Brazil
for more than two weeks.
constitutional amendment that would have limited the power of prosecutors to
investigate cases of corruption. The proposal was extremely unpopular with
voters and has been a frequent target of the protests that have rocked Brazil
for more than two weeks.
In a speech Tuesday, Senate President Renan Calheiros, speaking in the name
of a broad coalition of congressional leaders, pledged to keep Congress in
session "for the next 10 to 15 days" in order to clear an existing agenda of
reforms. These include bills to increase federal transfer payments to states
and municipalities, a measure that should help localities improve
transportation, education and health services. Congress is also likely to vote
on a bill eliminating most taxes from a list of basic foodstuffs.
of a broad coalition of congressional leaders, pledged to keep Congress in
session "for the next 10 to 15 days" in order to clear an existing agenda of
reforms. These include bills to increase federal transfer payments to states
and municipalities, a measure that should help localities improve
transportation, education and health services. Congress is also likely to vote
on a bill eliminating most taxes from a list of basic foodstuffs.
Demonstrations have brought as many as a million Brazilians at a time into
the streets of more than a hundred cities. They are protesting issues such as
the high cost of living, rising bus fares, corruption and deteriorating public
services.
the streets of more than a hundred cities. They are protesting issues such as
the high cost of living, rising bus fares, corruption and deteriorating public
services.
At times, the protests have turned violent. At least four deaths have
occurred during demonstrations, according to police. Angry protestors have
clashed with police, who typically wield nightsticks and shields. The conflicts
have yielded hundreds of people injured or arrested. Protests also have turned
into episodes of looting and vandalism.
occurred during demonstrations, according to police. Angry protestors have
clashed with police, who typically wield nightsticks and shields. The conflicts
have yielded hundreds of people injured or arrested. Protests also have turned
into episodes of looting and vandalism.
Protestors were planning a new round of demonstrations for later Wednesday,
with the national capital of Brasilia and the inland metropolis of Belo
Horizonte as the focal points.
with the national capital of Brasilia and the inland metropolis of Belo
Horizonte as the focal points.
In Brasilia, police were already toiling in the early hours of Wednesday to
cordon off an area around the city's downtown plaza, where the modernistic
structures of Brazil's federal government are located.
cordon off an area around the city's downtown plaza, where the modernistic
structures of Brazil's federal government are located.
For the first time since protests began, police in Brasilia will search bags
of demonstrators entering downtown areas. Police said they will also limit
vehicular traffic in certain areas of the city.
of demonstrators entering downtown areas. Police said they will also limit
vehicular traffic in certain areas of the city.
In Belo Horizonte, protestors will focus on the city's huge sports stadium,
where Brazil will face off against Uruguay in a Confederations Cup soccer game
Wednesday afternoon.
where Brazil will face off against Uruguay in a Confederations Cup soccer game
Wednesday afternoon.
The Confederations Cup, a warm up to the 2014 World Soccer Cup, has also
been a frequent target for demonstrators, who bemoan the high cost to taxpayers
of preparing stadiums and other public works. Brazil is the host for both the
Confederations Cup and next year's World Cup, while Rio de Janeiro will host
the 2016 Olympics.
been a frequent target for demonstrators, who bemoan the high cost to taxpayers
of preparing stadiums and other public works. Brazil is the host for both the
Confederations Cup and next year's World Cup, while Rio de Janeiro will host
the 2016 Olympics.
Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff is expected to remain in Brasilia
Wednesday for more meetings with congressional leaders.
Wednesday for more meetings with congressional leaders.
In a televised news conference Tuesday night, Education Minister Aloizio
Mercadante said the administration was modifying a proposal on political reform
made by the president earlier this week. Instead of holding a referendum aimed
at creating a special constituent assembly on political reform, the
administration will ask Congress to schedule a public vote aimed at approval of
specific electoral and political party reforms.
Mercadante said the administration was modifying a proposal on political reform
made by the president earlier this week. Instead of holding a referendum aimed
at creating a special constituent assembly on political reform, the
administration will ask Congress to schedule a public vote aimed at approval of
specific electoral and political party reforms.
Congressional leaders and the president of the Brazilian Bar Association on
Tuesday criticized the original proposal as unworkable and, possibly,
unconstitutional.
Tuesday criticized the original proposal as unworkable and, possibly,
unconstitutional.
-Paulo Trevisani in Brasilia contributed to this article
Write to Tom Murphy at tom.murphy@dowjones.com
Saturday, June 22, 2013
Monday, June 10, 2013
Sunday, June 9, 2013
Mato Grosso is confirmed as a safe haven for large investments
Mato Grosso is confirmed as a safe haven for large investments
Written by advising Sefaz
Wed, June 5, 2013
The State of Mato Grosso maintained its rating (rating) positive for attraction of investments according by Standard & Poor's. In the assessment by the agency, issued on Monday (6-3), the balanced state finances should continue in the coming years. For analysts, the percentage of impairment of current revenues with the cost of public debt must remain in a range below 10%, and investment in infrastructure that is being done, added to new projects already planned to circumvent the problem of logistics faced by the agro-industrial production.
"This new report brings some of the actions that we developed in our management against the State Government, showing investors the world we are working hard to solve our problem of logistics, we have a good business environment. We have been approached by international companies who want to invest in Brazil. They seek information on all states, and the positive rating agency Standard & Poor's is important in the final choice of where these companies will install. Mato Grosso has done its utmost to ensure greater diversification of our economic matrix, "said the governor Silval Barbosa
The report points out that the state scenery is very favorable, in view of the prospect of the approaching World Cup Soccer and the consequent acceleration of works in progress.
For Finance Secretary of Mato Grosso, Marcel Souza de Cursi, maintaining fiscal balance and economic state is central to this positive rating."Analysts at Standard & Poor's noted that the state treasury has developed strong actions to reduce spending costing action that allows greater public investments in social areas such as security and education.In the sphere of public revenue, the text pointed modernizations applied primarily on the agricultural sector, which resulted in increased revenue, solidifying its own revenues, "he pointed out.
Another point of analysis on international finance Mato Grosso reinforced the importance of the process of renegotiating the debt with the Union. "The text shows the operation performed by the Bank of America, which, coupled with planned actions for payment, we left a commitment of approximately 17% of our revenue to service debt in 2012 to the current 10%. The agency detailed the process and even cites that trading was allowed both the Executive and Legislative national materialize, becoming a reference for refinancing debt through the capital markets, "said the economist and deputy secretary Executive Core Fazendário, Vivaldo Lopes.
According to him, is the addition of a modern and balanced fiscal policy, with the reduction of public debt in state finances, which should ensure the release of funds for further investment in infrastructure in the state.
RECOGNITION
Mato Grosso is the first state in the Midwest to have the recognition of an international rating agency risk, actually two. "Beyond the Standard & Poor's, which rated us BBB-, Moody's assigned a Baa3 Mato Grosso index, considered extremely positive by the market. In Brazil, only the states of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro have this kind of international certification. In terms of municipalities, it was only obtained by São Paulo and Belo Horizonte, "detailed Vivaldo.
RATING
Risk Rating (rating) is the opinion of a specialist agency risk classification on the ability of a country, state or company to pay off its financial commitments. Scores to indicate a higher or lower risk of the occurrence of a "default", that is, suspension of payment.
Therefore, the experts of these agencies assess the financial situation, the conditions of the world market and expert opinion of private, official and academic sources. Mato Grosso was considered by Standard & Poor's "good paying", him giving investment grade. It is a seal of quality that indicates a very low risk of default. Once received the degree of investment the state can continue climbing classification. It is usually updated annually.
Saturday, June 8, 2013
CHS invests in Tocantins
CHS announces investments of US$ 60 million in agriculture in Tocantins
CHS, the largest agricultural cooperative in the United States, will invest about US$ 60 million in Tocantins, ie, more than R$ 120 million
Initially, the cooperative will install four silos for grain drying in the state. Earlier on Wednesday,
June 5, CHS representatives gathered with the Executive Secretary of Seagro - Secretariat of Agriculture and Livestock, Ruiter Padua, to know the potential of each region of the state and thus define the areas that will receive investments. On Wednesday afternoon, the group will head to the South of the state where fly over the municipalities of Alvorada, Araguaçu Sandolândia and looking for a property to install the first silo. The project, according to the company manager in Goias, Leandro Siqueira, aims to do the work and then offer financing to farmers, who plant and sell its production to the cooperative. The first work will be completed within two years. "We have already decided that a silo will be built in the South. As for the rest, we're seeing the best locations for installation," said Leandro Siqueira, adding that the focus is on the production in the state for soy and corn.
Director of the multinational Arene Trevisan explained that CHS chose the Tocantins due to its agricultural potential. "It feels right to invest here, since the expectations of the potential deployment of logistics infrastructure," he said. In Brazil, the CHS is present in the states of Goiás, Mato Grosso, and in the southern states of the country.
The meeting was attended by the mayor of Alvorado of Tocantins.
Multinational CHS is diversified energy, grains and foods. According to the company website, is committed to helping its customers, owners and other stakeholders to increase their business through its domestic and global operations.
Wednesday, May 29, 2013
Holiday, pigs, China, corn, dollar, GDP
Wow, for a short week, a lot has happened
Thursday is a holiday in Brazil. Many are taking a four day weekend.
I was not expecting much to be happening this week.
* IMEA came out with a 17.3 mmt corn crop for Mato Grosso.
This is up from 7 mmt just two years ago. I have been watching
this for 13 years now. I am even shock and awed by this rate
of growth.
* Smithfield foods is selling to Chinese company. Wow- talk
about vertical integration. If you don´t have enough of something,
just buy the country? China would love to do the same thing in
Brazil, just buy the soybean farm they need- solve the problem.
Maybe the Smithfield purchase is a hint for Brazil going forward.
If logistics keep being delayed, maybe China should just buy
Brazil Foods? Skip all this nonsense with buying soybeans direct
and trying to get them to port and shipped in a timely manner.
Buy the animal protein end product. Quit all this dicking around.
If Brazil wants to throttle back land holding sizes and not
build railroads, China will buy all the pork bellies via the
Bovespa. Problem solved. This is a bit premature to be talking
about, but something to ponder given recent trend. Some states(USA)
are worried about corporate farms. How about when a country
buys the whole industry? what then? At least China is putting
their trade surplus to good use and giving some of our IOU´s back.
* Brazil´s GDP has been revised down to 2.2% annualized.
This is pathetic given the stimulus they have injected into
economy the past year. Inflation is a worry. Interest rates
need to increase in Brazil. It is a paradox now on what to
do. The USA economy is showing signs of additional
growth. The 10 year note yield made a new high today for the year.
The dollar rallied to 2:11:1 today verses the Real.
Times are a changing- pay attention.
*Brazilian farmers have had a great two weeks. Soybeans
have rallied circa 2 dollars per bushel and the dollar is
increasing at same time. The perfect storm to sell a lot
of soybeans quickly.
*Personally I think we are at a cycle high in soybeans.
Brazil farmers should be aggressive sellers of old crop
and 2014 crop. Get it priced.
I will be headed out to Mato Grosso sometime in the
next two weeks. I will send out a newsletter thereafter
to subscribers.
Thursday is a holiday in Brazil. Many are taking a four day weekend.
I was not expecting much to be happening this week.
* IMEA came out with a 17.3 mmt corn crop for Mato Grosso.
This is up from 7 mmt just two years ago. I have been watching
this for 13 years now. I am even shock and awed by this rate
of growth.
* Smithfield foods is selling to Chinese company. Wow- talk
about vertical integration. If you don´t have enough of something,
just buy the country? China would love to do the same thing in
Brazil, just buy the soybean farm they need- solve the problem.
Maybe the Smithfield purchase is a hint for Brazil going forward.
If logistics keep being delayed, maybe China should just buy
Brazil Foods? Skip all this nonsense with buying soybeans direct
and trying to get them to port and shipped in a timely manner.
Buy the animal protein end product. Quit all this dicking around.
If Brazil wants to throttle back land holding sizes and not
build railroads, China will buy all the pork bellies via the
Bovespa. Problem solved. This is a bit premature to be talking
about, but something to ponder given recent trend. Some states(USA)
are worried about corporate farms. How about when a country
buys the whole industry? what then? At least China is putting
their trade surplus to good use and giving some of our IOU´s back.
* Brazil´s GDP has been revised down to 2.2% annualized.
This is pathetic given the stimulus they have injected into
economy the past year. Inflation is a worry. Interest rates
need to increase in Brazil. It is a paradox now on what to
do. The USA economy is showing signs of additional
growth. The 10 year note yield made a new high today for the year.
The dollar rallied to 2:11:1 today verses the Real.
Times are a changing- pay attention.
*Brazilian farmers have had a great two weeks. Soybeans
have rallied circa 2 dollars per bushel and the dollar is
increasing at same time. The perfect storm to sell a lot
of soybeans quickly.
*Personally I think we are at a cycle high in soybeans.
Brazil farmers should be aggressive sellers of old crop
and 2014 crop. Get it priced.
I will be headed out to Mato Grosso sometime in the
next two weeks. I will send out a newsletter thereafter
to subscribers.
Sunday, May 26, 2013
Corn logistics
Government and private sector are investing together to solve problems of corn chain
Funds will be allocated for the construction of warehouses and an annuity to farmers, who are hampered by the high cost of logistics in the country
Daniela Castro | Brasília (DF)
Large supply of the product will cause a reduction in the price paid by the market
The high cost of logistics remains as one of the worst obstacles to the competitiveness of the supply chain of corn in the country. Of every three bushels of corn that are aimed at Brazilian ports, two are on the way to pay the freight , since it is necessary to overcome long distances to the regions that produces to consumer.
To change the picture, the industry must develop a plan of action that will receive investments of
R$ 1.2 billion from the federal government and the private sector. The measure has been requested by President Dilma Rousseff. The idea is to invest in the construction of warehouses and have an insurance policy that guarantees the producer income.
Harvesting of the second corn crop begins in the coming days. The prediction is that there is a surplus of 22 million tons compared to the consumption needs of the country. The harvest of grain in the United States , which will begin to be harvested in September should also have export surpluses.
The large supply of the product will cause the reduction of which is paid by the market value that is already under R$ 13.00 for a 60 kilo bag - guaranteed minimum price stipulated by the government. - Last year, we have R$ 15.20 per bag depending on the region in Mato Grosso. This year, we are working with R$ 11.12 per bag.
This means that we already broke the barrier of the minimum price and the government will have to intervene to ensure that is provided by law - highlights the executive director of Aprosoja Brazil, Fabricio Moraes Rosa.
- The price to carry a sack of corn from Mato Grosso the Rio Grande do Sul is already higher than the actual value of the product. Is costing around R $ 15.00 in freight cost for a bag of corn MT to RS, while corn is costing R$ 12.00. So, it is absurd.
Where the price of shipping is higher than the price of the product itself? - Asks the executive director of the Brazilian Association of Swine Breeders (ABCS), Fabiano Coser. while in the United States, shipping a ton of farm to the port is US$ 12.00, here the value is ten times higher because corn is put on a truck, which reaches 1100 km run to reach the port. - Every three sacks you move this production to export, you leave two bags just to cover the shipping. It is really a very serious problem - adds Rose.
Saturday, May 25, 2013
Sugar ship line up at ports increases
Row of ships in ports for shipment of sugar increases from 32 to 43
The total number of ships waiting to embark sugar at Brazilian ports rose from 32 to 43 for the week ended May 22, according to a survey done by the shipping agency Williams Brazil
The report considers vessels already anchored and those who are waiting for berthing and also those that will arrive by the 14th of June. 1.35 million tons of sugar are scheduled to load. The largest amount will be loaded at the Port of Santos, whence will come out 1.01 million tons, or 75% of the total. Paranaguá liable for the remaining 25%, or 335,000 tons. In Santos, the terminal will embark 474,100 tonnes for Cosan during the period. At the end of line Copersucar, shipments should total 326,800 tons, while for Cargill, 42,000 tons, and Noble, 173 600 tons. Much of the volume to be exported is the variety VHP - sugar Raw high polarization - with 1.29 million tons. VHP is shipped in bulk. There are no records for shipments of sugar type A-45 in the period. Already refined sugar crystal B-150 totaling 52,700 tons. Crystal sugar and A45 are shipped bagged.
Friday, May 24, 2013
Chinese can not invest in Mato Grosso because of bureaucracy
Chinese can not invest in MT because of bureaucracy
Investors come to the country, but are barred by rules difficult to be fulfilled and complex environmental legislation
Source: Ascom Aprosoja
5/24/2013
The deficit is a logistical issue discussed in all regions covered by the entourage of the 8th tour by Aprosoja. On Thursday (23), the event was in Agua Boa, eastern region of Mato Grosso, the municipality which is between those who have a greater capacity for agricultural expansion through conversion of pastureland to cropland. There are at least 431,000 hectares that can be used for agriculture, according to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural (IMEA).
But that which hinders this expansion is the lack of alternatives to ship out of the region the soybeans. Producers questioned during the tour the executive Lin Tan on why the Chinese do not invest in infrastructure in Mato Grosso since the state is the main customer of China with 70% of soybeans produced being sent to the country. "It is very difficult to invest in Brazil. We want to invest, but here there are many rules and regulations, actually more bureaucratic than China's, "said Lin.
For producer and delegate Aprosoja the municipality, Junior Garruti, the big problem in Brazil is that governments do not fulfill their duty. "The government does not decide what is priority. Failure is a cultural problem, our government does not have a voice. Many ministries are created and ends up messing up the other one and sends another stop working, "said Garruti.
Lin Tan also explained that many Chinese businessmen come to Mato Grosso with the intention of investing in silos, railways and ports, but the first difficulty is to find the right people to deal with these investments. "The Chinese are convinced that the government is taking care of these investments here because in China the government controls everything. And when they get here there are people in government. We understand that there are business opportunities here, but if we do not find the right person to make this happen, there is no business, "he clarified.
But when that first step is overcome, the second is the investors and the beneficiaries meet. The Chinese need to make sure that the project is a good investment and have some form of collateral. According to Lin Tan, then they find another big problem, environmental legislation. "Environmental regulations in Brazil and Mato Grosso are much stricter than in China. Here's indigenous reserve and several other licenses are required, there is a lot of bureaucracy, "he explained.
According to producer José Luiz Polizeli, one of the issues that attracted the most attention in his talk was the control that the Chinese government has on the country. "I never imagined that the Chinese government could be even more bureaucratic than ours, the feeling of having control over everything," he said. It's the first time he participates in the tour and the experience was odd. "I really enjoyed the lectures and they had a very good approach which forced us to imagine some situations and think about the future of the market. It's very different to have a representative here exposing the reality of each country. One thing is to read about it, but the other is able to take your questions there personally, "he added.
The tour is a realization of Aprosoja
Aprosoja and the National Rural Education (Sennar-MT), sponsored by BASF, Bayer and Syngenta.
Thursday, May 23, 2013
Conab corn buying program
US$ 3.35/bushel for Mato Grosso
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND FOOD SUPPLY
MINISTRY OF FINANCE
OFFICE OF THE MINISTER
INTERMINISTERIAL ORDINANCE # 330 OF 22 MAY 2013
THE MINISTERS OF AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND FOOD SUPPLY AND FARM, using the powers conferred on them by art. 3-A of Law No. 8427 of May 27, 1992, in view of the resolution of the National Monetary Council in 3711, of April 16, 2009, the shelter provided by the Policy of Guaranteed Minimum Price - PGPM, dealt Decree-Law No. 79 of December 19, 1966, and the provisions of Case 21000.000656/2013-25, resolve:
Article 1 There are established the following parameters for the release of Put Option Agreement audience (COV) for corn grain crop in 2012/2013 and 2013 through public auctions to be conducted by the National Supply Company-Conab:
I - participants: farmers, directly or through their cooperatives;
II - contract expiration: November 29, 2013;
III - exercise prices:
a) for the States of the South, Southeast and Midwest (except MT): R $ 19.74 / 60kg;
b) for the states of Mato Grosso and Rondônia: R $ 15.12 / 60kg;
IV - Unit of measure of the contract: 27 (twenty seven) tons;
V - bringing the exercise of the contract: it is admitted by decision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA), the anticipation of the exercise of the contract, deducting for each month in advance
R $ 0.46 / 60kg for States relating to paragraph "a" of section III and R $ 0.42 / 60kg for the United referring to item "b" of section III;
VI - winning COV: may be from the month of August, complying with the criteria set out in section V;
VII - volume features: up to R $ 580,000,000.00 (five hundred and eighty million dollars), the limited budget of the Official Credit Operations - OOC, under Public Training Inventories;
VIII - the date of the auction, participants must have registration in good standing in the Unified Registration System Providers (SICAF) and, on the date of exercise of the option, be in good standing with the Informative Credit Unpaid Federal Public Sector (CADIN);
IX - MAPA may establish limit purchasing contract by auction, for each farmer, directly or through their cooperatives.
Article 2 The operations of VOC shall additionally comply with the conditions laid down by the National Monetary Council Resolution No. 3711 of April 16, 2009.
Article 3 This Ministerial Ordinance shall enter into force on the date of its publication.
ANTONIO ANDRADE
Minister of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply
GUIDO MANTEGA
Minister of Finance
D.O.U., 23/05/2013 - Section 1
Wednesday, May 22, 2013
Brazil gov´t buying 2 million tons of Mato Grosso corn
CORN: MT PRODUCER WAITING REACTION AFTER GETTING 28% HIGHER PRICE
The logistics issue is crucial in Mato Grosso and it is time to decide for the producer to expect the government's actions to remove corn from the market - which should support the price - or negotiates part of the second season now and reduces the need for storage.
According to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (IMEA), the silo bags have been an alternative for farmers who want to wait for a reaction in prices, but the output is still "emergency".
"Considering the value of the silo bag without machinery, the cost per bag of corn with such alternative is around R $ 0.40 to R $ 0.50," said the IMEA in informative.
Those who can not afford this have traded production at a value below the operating cost.
"For those who expect high productivity, the market share of production now reduces the problem of lack of storage," says the institute.
Mato Grosso began selling corn harvest 2012/13 to R $ 15.96 / bag (quotation november/12), but only 6% of the production was closed this value. In January prices fell to R$ 14.01 on average. In May, with 4.5% of businesses closed, the average was 28% lower than in November, around R $ 11.53 / bag. The government indicated it will pay for corn Mato Grosso R$ 15.12 / bag, value, according to the IMEA covers the costs of production. But the volume of 2 million tons in option contracts is considered low. "Supports only 12.5% of the entire crop," he says.
Today, the marketing of Mato Grosso corn reaches 26.7% of the total production for the season 12/13, equivalent to 4.3 million tons of the16.05 million tons expected for the current cycle. The expectation by IMEA and market agents is that businesses follow retracted to a marked improvement in prices by sellers. In the state, prices range from R $ 10.90 / bag in Sorriso, R $ 11.30 / bag in Lucas do Rio Verde, R$ 14.80 / bag in Primavera do Leste and R$ 15.40 / bag in Rondonopolis. The second season has buyer R$ 14/sac Rondonopolis but seller asks R$ 16/sac. In the mid-north, a buyer's market R$ 9/sac, compared to R$ 12.50 Seller / bag.
In Paraná, poor provision of sale, and stable prices. Yesterday, the Department of Agriculture reported that the marketing of the summer harvest is only 55% of the production and the sale of second crop is stuck at 7% of the expected volume. The harvest of the second crop corn has not yet begun in the state.
Tuesday, May 21, 2013
Bunge Yara merger green light
Cade approves purchase of fertilizer assets of Bunge by Yara
By Thiago Resende | Value
BRASILIA - CADE approved without restrictions, the business in which the Norwegian fertilizer company Yara International intends to acquire Brazilian fertilizer assets of American Bunge.
Announced in December last year, the operation is estimated at $ 750 million. The purchase involves "virtually all assets related to the fertilizer business of Bunge in Brazil, consisting of mixing units located in 22 locations throughout Brazil", 16 owned and six leased, according to information sent by the businesses to Cade. Additionally, other assets such as a phosphate factory will also be acquired by Yara.
"The only asset used in the fertilizer business by Bunge Group that will not be transferred to Yara's Termag, a port terminal used for fertilizer in the port of Santos," companies completed to notify the transaction to the national antitrust.
Yara The group primarily operates in the production and sale of fertilizers, and sale of ammonia. Thus, companies recognize the business generates a higher concentration by the Norwegian market, but without "cause any competitive concern, in view of the "high rivalry" in the industry.
The process was analyzed by the new law antitrust and now, with the endorsement of Cade, companies can perform the operation. The green light was given by order of the Superintendent-General of the agency published today in the "Official Gazette" and therefore the case does not need to undergo trial in plenary Cade.
Monday, May 20, 2013
Mato Grosso corn and railroads
A few news items in the news today.
Brazil government plans to buy 8 million tons of
2nd crop corn to help prop up prices and help
with logistics to get Mato Grosso corn to the
Northeast and to the ports.
Spot Mato Grosso corn is at US$ 2.72/ bushel locally(Sorriso.)
Govt will come in at R$ 15/sac which is about US$ 3.40/bushel.
This will help buffer the surge.
Also this week progress on East/West railroad details.
After 3 years of dilly dallying, it will become official that
Lucas do Rio Verde will be the site of a dry port and
railway depot. Various public announcements are being
scheduled from Brasilia to Cuiaba to Lucas.
Lots of pats on the back and congrats will be handed
out again. Just like three years ago!!!!!!!!!
I was there......
I have heard and seen all this before.
Let us hope during the upcoming dry season BR 163
can get 90% paved to Santarem and maybe in 2014
we can break ground on the railroad.
The new forecast for a functioning railroad is now
2017/2018 crop year. I can hardly wait.
Brazil government plans to buy 8 million tons of
2nd crop corn to help prop up prices and help
with logistics to get Mato Grosso corn to the
Northeast and to the ports.
Spot Mato Grosso corn is at US$ 2.72/ bushel locally(Sorriso.)
Govt will come in at R$ 15/sac which is about US$ 3.40/bushel.
This will help buffer the surge.
Also this week progress on East/West railroad details.
After 3 years of dilly dallying, it will become official that
Lucas do Rio Verde will be the site of a dry port and
railway depot. Various public announcements are being
scheduled from Brasilia to Cuiaba to Lucas.
Lots of pats on the back and congrats will be handed
out again. Just like three years ago!!!!!!!!!
I was there......
I have heard and seen all this before.
Let us hope during the upcoming dry season BR 163
can get 90% paved to Santarem and maybe in 2014
we can break ground on the railroad.
The new forecast for a functioning railroad is now
2017/2018 crop year. I can hardly wait.
Wednesday, May 15, 2013
NE drought
Near Bom Jesus, Piaui, Brazil
Soybeans being disked under due to extreme drought conditions
NE Brazil
Monday, May 13, 2013
Warm and sunny
Another warm and sunny week in central Brazil.
I know many analysts are talking circa 78 mmt tons
for the total Brazil corn crop. The 2nd crop keeps
getting bigger. I kinda doubt it. It will be big but
not Mega big. Too much of the 2nd crop corn got planted
in late February and early March. The rains ended at
the normal time of mid April. The last corn to be planted
will not be much. It might be just a cover crop.
There is a corn plant but no cob.
I also am hesitant to rubber stamp the recent media
reference to a 1.2 million hectare increase in Brazil´s
planted area of soybeans for 2014. I really doubt that.
The last two years we have seen the surge in soybean area
for Brazil. It is time to stand pat and plateau for a bit.
The USA will likely plant copious amounts of soybeans
before this late season is done. The USA will likely produce
3.5 billion bushels of soybeans in 2013. Let us hope China
imports 69MMT of soy in 2014 or look out below.
INCRA recently released a parcel of land to a foreigner
group. We have been in a holding pattern with regards
to this tract for one year. A good sign and good news for
those interested in Brazil land.
Brazil land is still a bit pricey. Asking prices in sacs of
soybeans are still firm.
Thank you to all the newsletter renewals of late and
VIP clients that confide in me. Very much appreciated.
Wednesday, May 8, 2013
Soybeans to USA
http://br.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idBRSPE94705C20130508
Brazil and Paraguay will export soybeans to the U.S. - traders
]
BUENOS AIRES, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Brazil and Paraguay are ready to export soy to the United States, at a time when the U.S. market is facing a shortage in the offseason after breaking harvest in 2012, industry sources said Wednesday.
After suffering the worst drought since the 1930s, it is estimated that the reserves U.S. soybean retreat until the end of summer, to its lowest level in nine years.
In the grain market of Chicago, rumors circulate of shipments of South American oilseed being sent north, but so far not confirmed any shipping during this season.
"The operations are closed and the boats have been nominated. Accordingly, it is done," he told Reuters operator of an exporter, based in Buenos Aires.
The source said that a ship is scheduled to depart this month the port of Ilheus, in northeastern Brazil, while the other is supposed to leave the terminal port of Nueva Palmira, Uruguay, used by Paraguayans to ship grain.
"At least three shipments were traded yesterday (Tuesday) to send Soy in Paraguay and Brazil to the U.S.," said another trader with knowledge of agricultural operations.
The next soybean crop will be harvested in the U.S. only in three or four months and physical markets in regions of soybean processing record currently historically higher prices for a spring, due to tight inventories.
(By Hugh Bronstein)
2nd crop corn potentials
2013 Brazil Corn Expedition
Second crop 'safrinha' of 40.58 million raises total corn crop to 76.88 million t
With record production, Brazil awaits definitions on United States planting - which remains behind schedule - with the challenge of sustaining prices and shipments
Brazilian farmers placed their bets high and are about to retire from field activities after yet another record winter corn production of 40.58 million tonnes. This estimate is from the Brazil Corn Expedition, a project conceived by Agronegócio Gazeta do Povo, INTL FCStone consultancy and the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) who toured the five major producing states of the grain's second crop in recent weeks. The grain's harvest, which should begin next month, exceeds for the second year in a row the volume produced in the summer, making the term 'safrinha' (or the "little crop" in Portuguese) a thing of the past. In the field, the winter harvest has earned a more appropriate nickname – ‘safrona’, meaning the "big crop".
During a 7,000 km trip through Mato Grosso, Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás and São Paulo technicians and journalists confirmed optimistic expectations for production. And it's no surprise. Following gains from last winter, farmers put into practice a recipe for high productivity. Soils were well fertilized and most used high-tech seeds. To top it off, the climate was almost as perfect as in 2012.
The few areas needing rain to reach yields equal to or higher than last year, found salvation. In Paraná - the second largest domestic producer of the crop - it rained last weekend in much of the dry areas. "I still have not confirmed with my father, but I think the rain was around 15 mm. It came at a good time. Now, we hope that the colder days won't cause us any damage", said agronomy student Pedro Versari, who works with his father David on a property of 600 hectares planted with winter corn. They believe they will be able to achieve the same average productivity as last year, equivalent to more than 82 bags per hectare.
Challenge
On the other hand, the projected crop is a red flag for Brazil, which must confront the challenge of increasing its exports in a year of stable domestic consumption, the recovery of the largest global producers and suppliers (United States), and weak advanced sales. Sales of the winter grain continue at a pace 50% below the same time last year, the Corn Expedition found.
Altogether, Brazil will dump 76.88 million tonnes of corn into the market, considering summer (36.3 million/t) and winter production. With domestic demand at 52 million tonnes, the country is expected to end the year with more than 16 million tonnes in stock, the largest in history. To make matters worse, the delay in soybean shipments since the beginning of the year will also likely influence the market for the cereal. "Corn will only likely begin to be shipped out of the country in August and September, which is very worrisome, because it will be at the same time that the United States is to begin its harvest," said Otávio Celidonio, superintendent of Imea.
The future scenario has already started coming true. According to a survey conducted by the consulting firm FCStone, "from February to January [the National Supply Company's crop year] exports in the 2012/13 crop accumulated 4.5 million tonnes, representing 30% of the 15 million estimated for the entire cycle." Last week, the performance of corn futures prices was marked by fears over delays in planting, which served as a factor of support, according to a weekly report from the consultancy.
The document emphasizes that the cold and wet weather in the United States' Corn Belt throughout the week complicated planting and reinforced expectations of greater potential to transfer area from corn to soybeans if the delay persists. 80% of the crop is expected to be planted after May 15, demonstrating the record delay, the report shows.
Brazil Corn - Aside from Agronegócio Gazeta do Povo, FCStone and Imea, the Brazil Corn Expedition received support from Sicredi, Montana and Perfipar.
____________________________
Luana Gomes
Jornalista/Analista de Agronegócio - Gazeta do PovoGRPCOM – Grupo Paranaense de Comunicação
41 3321.5366 | 41 9187.4305
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