A few curious types have emailed me about a crop tour
the end of January or early February.
I am happy to do so if there is interest.
It is hard to get professionals all on the same page
as per a tour.
If you think this is of interest, I will introduce
you to others that are thinking of coming.
You guys figure it out and I will do the rest
once dates are agreed to.
It will be a long drawn out harvest.
January 15th all the way to April 15th.
even in the prime areas.
The BR 163 ag show is the end of March and I will be
there. Hotel rooms are a problem.
Friday, December 11, 2015
Dec 11 blog update Conab, weather, etc
I have sent out many updates this week to subscribers of stressed soybeans, farmer comments,
and some good fields too.
Conab starts the year out on an optimistic note.
One thing I do know, the soy crop will not be 102 mmt.
But even if we lose a few million tons here and there, the soy market
does not care this year.
I cannot help think but to myself if this were 2012-2013, when we had
super tight carryovers and the ships were waiting to load soybeans
in Paranagua in January.
What if we would have had a super El-nino then?
Soybeans would be moving 70 cents to a dollar per day
on the latest Brazilian weather forecast.
16 dollar soy? 20 dollar soy?
It makes me wonder.....
The past two weeks we get a 50 cent rally and give half of that back again.
No biggy
Southern Brazil is in great shape- probably too wet.
40% of the Brazil soy crop
The Northern 50% is under great stress.
Those beans filling pods now will not be much.
Those flowering this week and can get some rain in 10 days might
be fine yet.
Soybeans that have not seen rain in 40 days and are now crispy will
likley be abandoned and killed and then plant an early 2nd and only
crop of corn.
Those super young soybeans have some hope yet, but the Sun will work
against them later in the season. It is like planting soybeans the end of
June. What can we really expect out of those soybeans that will be harvested
in April?
The wild card will be the Dec 22nd rains that are in the forecast.
Those stressed soybeans that today are wilting and have a very deep root system.
Will they wake up, grow, flower, and set a bunch of pods in January?
We all know soybeans can fool us. If we look at vegetative index of Northern
Brazil, it looks like there will be a disaster....
The next 10 days of dry for those early planted soybeans are going to be tough.
50 bushel beans might turn into 30 yet.
Middle planted soy that looks like 30 bushel today might be 50 bushel yet in Janaury.
There are plenty of problem areas to keep an eye on the next 3 months.
But on the flip side, we have planted a record area of soybeans with
up to 60% of that area Intacta Pro soybeans which have a nice yield bump in them
if you give them a chance. i.e water !!!!!
This year will be one for the record books if Mato Grosso can pull off a decent
crop with 200 mm in Nov, 200 mm in Dec, and 200 mm in January.
600 mm during crop cycle when normally they would have received circa 1500 mm
during these three months.
Clay soils will be worth their weight in gold on years like this.
Sand will be very expensive ground this year.
When all this shakes out, I expect more and more land to be for sale
in the upcoming sales season.
The tide has gone out, let us see who was wearing a swim suit.
Happy Holidays
kory
and some good fields too.
Conab starts the year out on an optimistic note.
One thing I do know, the soy crop will not be 102 mmt.
But even if we lose a few million tons here and there, the soy market
does not care this year.
I cannot help think but to myself if this were 2012-2013, when we had
super tight carryovers and the ships were waiting to load soybeans
in Paranagua in January.
What if we would have had a super El-nino then?
Soybeans would be moving 70 cents to a dollar per day
on the latest Brazilian weather forecast.
16 dollar soy? 20 dollar soy?
It makes me wonder.....
The past two weeks we get a 50 cent rally and give half of that back again.
No biggy
Southern Brazil is in great shape- probably too wet.
40% of the Brazil soy crop
The Northern 50% is under great stress.
Those beans filling pods now will not be much.
Those flowering this week and can get some rain in 10 days might
be fine yet.
Soybeans that have not seen rain in 40 days and are now crispy will
likley be abandoned and killed and then plant an early 2nd and only
crop of corn.
Those super young soybeans have some hope yet, but the Sun will work
against them later in the season. It is like planting soybeans the end of
June. What can we really expect out of those soybeans that will be harvested
in April?
The wild card will be the Dec 22nd rains that are in the forecast.
Those stressed soybeans that today are wilting and have a very deep root system.
Will they wake up, grow, flower, and set a bunch of pods in January?
We all know soybeans can fool us. If we look at vegetative index of Northern
Brazil, it looks like there will be a disaster....
The next 10 days of dry for those early planted soybeans are going to be tough.
50 bushel beans might turn into 30 yet.
Middle planted soy that looks like 30 bushel today might be 50 bushel yet in Janaury.
There are plenty of problem areas to keep an eye on the next 3 months.
But on the flip side, we have planted a record area of soybeans with
up to 60% of that area Intacta Pro soybeans which have a nice yield bump in them
if you give them a chance. i.e water !!!!!
This year will be one for the record books if Mato Grosso can pull off a decent
crop with 200 mm in Nov, 200 mm in Dec, and 200 mm in January.
600 mm during crop cycle when normally they would have received circa 1500 mm
during these three months.
Clay soils will be worth their weight in gold on years like this.
Sand will be very expensive ground this year.
When all this shakes out, I expect more and more land to be for sale
in the upcoming sales season.
The tide has gone out, let us see who was wearing a swim suit.
Happy Holidays
kory
Thursday, December 3, 2015
December 3rd update
I will be back in office Sunday.
What I have noticed watching the satellite cloud loops is that
in the early evening there is a big poof in cloud development.
We see Red's in various spots in Brazil.
In Parana state this can mean 3-4 inches of rain.
The same Red in Goias and Mato Grosso means nothing.
We have thunder, some rumble, lightning, and maybe a few drops.
The GFS model is showing rain for Mato Grosso for mid- December.
Another forecast says no way- High and dry all the way into January.
Norwegian says UFFDA!!!!
Let us take this a day at at time.
Each day these soybeans need more and more water.
My soybean worry index is at "6".
By December 15th, it will likely be "7".
The vibe I get from producers is that:
It will rain, don't worry........
I ask myself what if it does not?
Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul are in great shape.
Some could say too wet.
Parana is on deck for 18 million tons of soy.
MGDS is on deck for 7 mmt.
(Almost in the bag)
Harvest in early January for them)
So 25 mmt of Brazil's 100 mmt are safe as per adequate moisture.
The other 70-75 mmt is still up for grabs and will be very late- historically speaking.
Mato Grosso was on deck to produce 29 mmt.
Not any more.
The problem is, as of today, we do not know what "Factor" to plug in for this
very historic weather event we are in. We simply do not have data to compare this too.
Western Cordoba in Argentina is floating in water.
Impeachment proceedings are starting in Brazil for her President.
Does this mean much in the near term?
nope
Depending on votes and timing of various holidays and assuming an impeachment
vote in the "House" in 2016 sometime, that means Dilma steps down for up to
180 days while Senate hashes things over.
I fear that 2016 could be another "Zombie year" Thriller 2.0
A country without direction and trying to run out the clock.
Frustrating
Kory
What I have noticed watching the satellite cloud loops is that
in the early evening there is a big poof in cloud development.
We see Red's in various spots in Brazil.
In Parana state this can mean 3-4 inches of rain.
The same Red in Goias and Mato Grosso means nothing.
We have thunder, some rumble, lightning, and maybe a few drops.
The GFS model is showing rain for Mato Grosso for mid- December.
Another forecast says no way- High and dry all the way into January.
Norwegian says UFFDA!!!!
Let us take this a day at at time.
Each day these soybeans need more and more water.
My soybean worry index is at "6".
By December 15th, it will likely be "7".
The vibe I get from producers is that:
It will rain, don't worry........
I ask myself what if it does not?
Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul are in great shape.
Some could say too wet.
Parana is on deck for 18 million tons of soy.
MGDS is on deck for 7 mmt.
(Almost in the bag)
Harvest in early January for them)
So 25 mmt of Brazil's 100 mmt are safe as per adequate moisture.
The other 70-75 mmt is still up for grabs and will be very late- historically speaking.
Mato Grosso was on deck to produce 29 mmt.
Not any more.
The problem is, as of today, we do not know what "Factor" to plug in for this
very historic weather event we are in. We simply do not have data to compare this too.
Western Cordoba in Argentina is floating in water.
Impeachment proceedings are starting in Brazil for her President.
Does this mean much in the near term?
nope
Depending on votes and timing of various holidays and assuming an impeachment
vote in the "House" in 2016 sometime, that means Dilma steps down for up to
180 days while Senate hashes things over.
I fear that 2016 could be another "Zombie year" Thriller 2.0
A country without direction and trying to run out the clock.
Frustrating
Kory
Saturday, November 21, 2015
Travels and thoughts Nov 21
Last week I was in Mato Grosso.
I am not impressed with soy crop.
I was to Brasilia this week. Many fields to be
planted yet in Goias.
Next week I will be in Southern Goias- stay tuned.
The soy crop is super late with below normal rains.
Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul are being hammered by rains.
Rain makes grain.
Will there be rust? Sure- there is always rust.
Spray fungicides and spray them again. Three applications are normal
these days.
We seem to get rain about once a week. Not everyday as per normal this
time of year.
In Mato Grosso, last week, good to excellent fields were from 10-15% of the
total area.
Reports out of Sorriso county last week of producers switching 1st crop
soy area to a 1st and only crop of corn.
This has never happened before.
We are dealing with a Mega El-Nino. It got stronger yet last week
from what I read.
The last big El-Nino was back in 1997.
Back in 1997 Mato Grosso planted 2 million hectares of soybeans with a yield
of 2.7 tons/ha. Today Mato Grosso plants 9 million ha with yields of 3.1 tons/ ha +.
Back in 1997 Goias produced 1 million ha of soybeans with yields of 2.5 tons.
Today Goias produces 3 million ha with yields of 3 tons/ha.
Tocantins back in 1997 produced Zero soybeans. Today the state plants 850,000 ha
and has yields of 3 tons/ha also.
If we go back to a previous El-Nino, we do not have any data to work with.
Bottom line to all of this. The crop is basically planted. The crop is young.
Harvest will be in March and April in many Cerrado states for 2016.
I have told clients that I do not think we have a 100 million ton crop on the way.
With Argentina ready to sell 10 million tons of soybeans, we are at a Mexican standoff
in the marketplace. Brazil is mildly bullish today. Argentina is mildly bearish today.
Does Brazil have the potential for a 10 million crop loss this season so far? No
Thus, until we have data supporting significant losses, we tread water it seems.
We need to burn up some carryover stock potentials in the coming months in order
to get optimistic again.
Dry January and a dry April/May 2016 would have the markets attention for both soy and corn.
I will be in Mato Grosso the end of March for the Show Safra 163 ag show.
This ag show is growing fast.
Kory
I am not impressed with soy crop.
I was to Brasilia this week. Many fields to be
planted yet in Goias.
Next week I will be in Southern Goias- stay tuned.
The soy crop is super late with below normal rains.
Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul are being hammered by rains.
Rain makes grain.
Will there be rust? Sure- there is always rust.
Spray fungicides and spray them again. Three applications are normal
these days.
We seem to get rain about once a week. Not everyday as per normal this
time of year.
In Mato Grosso, last week, good to excellent fields were from 10-15% of the
total area.
Reports out of Sorriso county last week of producers switching 1st crop
soy area to a 1st and only crop of corn.
This has never happened before.
We are dealing with a Mega El-Nino. It got stronger yet last week
from what I read.
The last big El-Nino was back in 1997.
Back in 1997 Mato Grosso planted 2 million hectares of soybeans with a yield
of 2.7 tons/ha. Today Mato Grosso plants 9 million ha with yields of 3.1 tons/ ha +.
Back in 1997 Goias produced 1 million ha of soybeans with yields of 2.5 tons.
Today Goias produces 3 million ha with yields of 3 tons/ha.
Tocantins back in 1997 produced Zero soybeans. Today the state plants 850,000 ha
and has yields of 3 tons/ha also.
If we go back to a previous El-Nino, we do not have any data to work with.
Bottom line to all of this. The crop is basically planted. The crop is young.
Harvest will be in March and April in many Cerrado states for 2016.
I have told clients that I do not think we have a 100 million ton crop on the way.
With Argentina ready to sell 10 million tons of soybeans, we are at a Mexican standoff
in the marketplace. Brazil is mildly bullish today. Argentina is mildly bearish today.
Does Brazil have the potential for a 10 million crop loss this season so far? No
Thus, until we have data supporting significant losses, we tread water it seems.
We need to burn up some carryover stock potentials in the coming months in order
to get optimistic again.
Dry January and a dry April/May 2016 would have the markets attention for both soy and corn.
I will be in Mato Grosso the end of March for the Show Safra 163 ag show.
This ag show is growing fast.
Kory
Saturday, November 7, 2015
Nov 7 blog Where is the rain?
It just can´t seem to rain like normal. We had some nice showers last weekend. Then it turned dry again.
I am headed to Mato Grosso this week. We have a tale of two worlds again. We talked about this last year but the rains started Oct 22 and continued normally. This year we have soybeans that are soon 45 days old and look good. We have soybeans that are 25 days old and need to replanted. We have vast areas not planted yet. Specifically Goias and the NE 1/4 of Brazil. Planting now will be considered late in these regions.
I am waiting for November 15th before I start to call this soy crop smaller than what is in the media today. There is still a chance things can correct and we have a late planted record soy crop and a very at risk 2nd crop corn. With Mato Grosso receiving above normal rainfall the past FIVE 2nd crop growing seasons, our memories tend to get short sided and we forget what "Can happen".
Brazil is pumping out all this extra corn at a record pace. 28.8 million tons for Nov 1, 2014- Oct 31 2015. Some say that for calender 2015, Brazil corn exports will be above 30 mmt.
Petrobras workers have been on stike this past week. Interupted total oil production for the week is about 800,000 barrels. Not a big deal on the global oil market, but needs to be watched if this continues a week or two- moreso for Brasil domestic energy markets.
Truckers plan to strike again on Monday. Let us see if they can make something stick this time.
It seems to take about 2 weeks for shortages to start showing up in the supply chain of various products.
With enough of these disruptions, this will eventually bring government to thier knees. There will not be enough fire trucks to keep all the fires out.
Currency market has been controlled again in recent weeks. Central bank is crapping in their pants that USA raises interest rates in December. It puts the Brazilian Real in a no win scenario. They cant keep ahead of inflation and budget concerns.
More movement this past week on the proposed rail project for Northern Mato Grosso up to the Amazon river system and then barge soy, corn, and meal further up the Amazon for loading of Panamax ships.
This would be a boon for the region. I still have my doubts as per the short term practicality of such projects given that government can´t even pay contractors for work that has been done on other roads and rail roads this year. If the multi-national grain companies and China could get together and float this project without Brazilian government intervention, this thing could have legs in the next year or two.
But as we have seen, when has Brazilian government ever not obstructed progress? They don´t even have the statesmanship to resign when clearly they are not working in the publics best interest.
Bottom line to all of this:
I am not sounding the alarm bells quite yet. With current weather patterns, I will sound the yellow alert after Nov 15th. Soy production will be at risk and 2nd crop corn at great risk. At the moment Parana is the "Garden of Eden" and well on the way of producing 18 mmt alone. Will Mato Grosso come in at 29 mmt as per expectations? and 20 mmt of 2nd crop corn? With this pattern we have today- no way-
If it rains cats and dogs Nov 15th- Jan 15th, we still have a chance on seeing Mato Grosso blow us away with yet another record, but my antennae is up!!!!
I am headed to Mato Grosso this week. We have a tale of two worlds again. We talked about this last year but the rains started Oct 22 and continued normally. This year we have soybeans that are soon 45 days old and look good. We have soybeans that are 25 days old and need to replanted. We have vast areas not planted yet. Specifically Goias and the NE 1/4 of Brazil. Planting now will be considered late in these regions.
I am waiting for November 15th before I start to call this soy crop smaller than what is in the media today. There is still a chance things can correct and we have a late planted record soy crop and a very at risk 2nd crop corn. With Mato Grosso receiving above normal rainfall the past FIVE 2nd crop growing seasons, our memories tend to get short sided and we forget what "Can happen".
Brazil is pumping out all this extra corn at a record pace. 28.8 million tons for Nov 1, 2014- Oct 31 2015. Some say that for calender 2015, Brazil corn exports will be above 30 mmt.
Petrobras workers have been on stike this past week. Interupted total oil production for the week is about 800,000 barrels. Not a big deal on the global oil market, but needs to be watched if this continues a week or two- moreso for Brasil domestic energy markets.
Truckers plan to strike again on Monday. Let us see if they can make something stick this time.
It seems to take about 2 weeks for shortages to start showing up in the supply chain of various products.
With enough of these disruptions, this will eventually bring government to thier knees. There will not be enough fire trucks to keep all the fires out.
Currency market has been controlled again in recent weeks. Central bank is crapping in their pants that USA raises interest rates in December. It puts the Brazilian Real in a no win scenario. They cant keep ahead of inflation and budget concerns.
More movement this past week on the proposed rail project for Northern Mato Grosso up to the Amazon river system and then barge soy, corn, and meal further up the Amazon for loading of Panamax ships.
This would be a boon for the region. I still have my doubts as per the short term practicality of such projects given that government can´t even pay contractors for work that has been done on other roads and rail roads this year. If the multi-national grain companies and China could get together and float this project without Brazilian government intervention, this thing could have legs in the next year or two.
But as we have seen, when has Brazilian government ever not obstructed progress? They don´t even have the statesmanship to resign when clearly they are not working in the publics best interest.
Bottom line to all of this:
I am not sounding the alarm bells quite yet. With current weather patterns, I will sound the yellow alert after Nov 15th. Soy production will be at risk and 2nd crop corn at great risk. At the moment Parana is the "Garden of Eden" and well on the way of producing 18 mmt alone. Will Mato Grosso come in at 29 mmt as per expectations? and 20 mmt of 2nd crop corn? With this pattern we have today- no way-
If it rains cats and dogs Nov 15th- Jan 15th, we still have a chance on seeing Mato Grosso blow us away with yet another record, but my antennae is up!!!!
Thursday, October 22, 2015
Oct 22 update The heat is on
I now know what it feels like to live in Baghdad. It seems like from time to time we see remote areas of the planet with heat readings of 150 degrees F. That has been the heat index in the sun for many spots in the Brazilian Cerrado this past week. Sun, no clouds, no wind- pure heat!!!! Last year at this time we were having much the same weather. Rains started about Oct 20th and saved the day. Last year the loss potential from dry weather was about a million tons. Western Mato Grosso and SW Goias were hardest hit with early planted soybeans. This year we are off to a slow start in Mato Grosso with replanting very likely in some locations. The risk of soybean seed burnout is very high. Goias has not planted anything yet. A few fields might be planted, but they are under pivots. At this time it is futile to forecast Brazil soy crop potential. At this time, a 100 million ton crop is likely. But if we are still dealing with erratic weather on November 15th, we can start subtracting from that number. Last year the rains came in the nick of time to save soybean potential in the Bahia and Minas Gerais region. Tocantins, a frontier state, had record soybean yields. They were the "Garden of Eden" last year. This year feels different to me. The past two weeks records have been broken going back 75 years in some locals. Mato Grosso has had soybeans now for about 30 years. In the heart of Mato Grosso, soybeans are 20 years old. How do we deal with 75 year old records when the crop we are trying to forecast has a 20 year history? We all know we don´t kill soybeans in June in USA.
We kill them in August. This year was a perfect example. From June 15th to July 15th, we were killing the USA crop. In the end, damn nice crop. It is much the same here, we will kill the Brazil crop in January- if it is going to happen. We are pushing the bulk of the harvest into February now. February better be nice, or we will have a real mess. It better not rain for two weeks straight in February, or everyone will lose their minds. I read today that some are expecting a 13% increase in 2nd crop corn area. I don´t see it. They will be damn lucky to maintain last year´s area. I will know more in November after my Mato Grosso trip. I cannot help but think to myself- what if this year is 180 degrees different than last season? We could knock 10 million ton off the soybean crop and the 2nd crop corn could be a disaster....... Am I forecasting this today? NO..... But, there are things in play today that are out of everyone´s control and the calender will dictate what can and can´t be done by March 5th. I expect 1 million ha of 2nd crop soybeans up from last season´s 680,000 ha. If 1st crop soy is nipped by drought, my guess is that many will plant soy again and skip 2nd corn. This is the last year for them to do a soy/soy, it just might happen, especially with FX in their favor. Lots of variables as of today. I can build a soy story ranging from 90 mmt to 102 mmt tons, depending on the soybean gods. Six percent decrease in fertilizer sales, expected area to increase by 3%, late planting, insects, poor germination, strong FX, and murphy´s law all come into play for the next 90 days. Let us see if Monsanto can collect royalties on saved seed in February?
What was looking like a boring season back in June is rapidily becoming "Thriller 2.0". Subscribers will be the first to know. Thank you all, Kory
Friday, October 9, 2015
Oct 10 update
The start of soybean planting is off to a slow start. The center-west region of Brazil remains hot and dry.
It looks like a repeat of last year. Late planting concerns will be the hot topic the next couple weeks. Conab report came out with a 100-102 million metric ton soybean crop for 2016. With 2016 the last year farmers can legally plant soy/soy, they are probably correct with their estimate. 2017 will start the no planting of a 2nd crop of soybeans from January through September each year. The dollar has traded 4.25:1 two weeks ago and as I type this the dollar is 3.75:1. If we drop back to 3.50:1, farmers will start to complain they will lose money in 2016. For those of you that have come down on a tour in recent years, you know how much things cost when the dollar was below 2:1. If anyone is interested in a winter tour this season, we could probably add in a couple nights in Rio for the same prices as three years ago. It depends on the group size obviously. The bottom line is that US$ 5000 will get a you a little more bang for your buck than three years ago. A few days in Mato Grosso with either a Foz do Iguacu or Rio add on to your tour. We are likely in a 3.80-4.20:1 trading range with the Dollar/Real in the coming months.
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