Back in 2001, on my first adventure to Mato Grosso, it was suggested I read "The Lexus and the Olive Tree" by Thomas Friedman. At the time, it seemed so profound. It inferred that once a country had a McDonalds, it was now part of the new global order. The country had joined "the club" so to speak and would not go back. There are those that would drive around in a new Lexus while others would harvest olives as though they were in Biblical times.
Twenty-five years later, I ask myself is this still true? Is there a new analogy that fits the world we live in? It seems like "Tesla" is the appropriate car to chose for our time, but what should the plant be? I asked myself. Soybeans came to mind after recent trade negotiations with China seem to have ended on a positive note. Soybeans seem to have been the pawn in a much bigger game. I then thought of the Eucalyptus tree and how central it is for energy in the processing of soybeans and corn in Mato Grosso. The Eucalyptus tree is a fast growing, renewable energy source, that allows the interior of Brazil to fuel the boilers by heating the water to process vast amount of soybean meal, soy oil, corn ethanol, and DDG's which are used to feed and fuel the world. Soybeans and it's sub-products are quite literally the "grease" that keeps the world moving. From tariff negotiations to the making of bio-diesel, soybeans are the synthetic lube that keeps everything friction free. Now that Brazil produces 150% more soybeans than the USA, it seemed appropriate to include this plant in the equation.
Over the weekend, I listened to the Joe Rogan podcast with Elon Musk. I heard Elon predict, that in five years, we will not have "Cell Phones" per se, but a device that connects directly with AI. AI will do everything. Work will be optional, he says. Huh? I can hear my grandfather say, "The world has gone to hell". I can hear my grandmother say, "work until the sweat runs off your brow". Elon says, the only way the USA and the world can deal with our debt problem is through growth. The only way we can increase productivity is through the use of robots and automation. Throughout 2025, it seems like I have seen more and more John Deere tractors plant autonomously. I have also seen Horsch planters work without operators. I have heard comments from those that have traveled to California about the quantity of self driving cars on the road.
Elon predictions:
• AI + robots will handle every task and every job. • Humanity won’t “work” the way we know it. Labor becomes optional. • People will earn a universal high income without needing a career. • 80% of goods and services will still exist — but humans won’t be the ones producing them. • Life turns into hobbies, creativity, gardening, family time, not 9-to-5 survival. • A world where comfort is guaranteed… not earned.
Elon continues to say, that in the coming months, Tesla will unveil and new high tech car that will blow everyone's mind. It is possible that it is an electric flying car. Meanwhile, the drone wars continue between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine has been targeting Russia's energy production facilities and causing much pain.
Throughout history, war has been about resources. It has been about land, food, oil, and expanding one's empire. We have witnessed Trump and others at least attempt to bring an end to the Israel/Palestine conflict that has been going on for thousands of years- the Olive Tree. It has been 3.5 years of Russia and Ukraine trying destroy one another with millions of lives lost. When I see images of Eastern Ukraine, I think of home along the Canadian border called "Juneberry". It is a godforsaken place that is swampy and full of peat ground. The only thing it is good for is deer hunting. D-8 caterpillars have been known to get stuck and sink away never to be found again. I ask myself, why would anyone die for Juneberry? You can have it.
If Elon is correct, Russia and Ukraine are bombing themselves into irrelevance. They will have no place in the new world he suggests. They have wasted so many resources such as education, souls, youth, and more importantly time. I think we all can see how fast the world is moving that countries, caught up in war, will never catch up. Information and data are the new land, oil and food. I say food because once the war is over, it will be John Deere, Horsch, et al that will bring the new technology to the fertile plains of the Ukraine and the robots will feed world. With the vast flat fields of Mato Grosso and Bahia, this is where all the technology and automation will be deployed. John Deere's See and Spray is fantastic, but what will be even better is the application of autonomous ground sprayers that can apply biologicals during the night at ideal humidity and temperatures, which will further enhance yields and lessen the need for herbicides, fungicides, and insecticides.
So as Elon launches his new electric flying car and deploys more satellites so we all can be connected at anytime and at any place on the planet, I will be looking out for the robots producing the food in Mato Grosso. Work optional..... This will go against the Gaucho work ethic that is synonymous with my grandparents.
This past week Nvidia reached a market cap of US$ 5 trillion. The total value of the USA soybean crop in 2024 was US$ 52 billion. 1% of Nvidia market cap. I repeat 1%. I think all of us in agriculture need to really let that sink in just how irrelevant we are in the whole scheme of things. Back in the 1930's, it is said that 21% of the population was involved in ag. Today, they say it is less than 2%. With automation, I would think that can drop even lower. I am not happy about this, but I am simply adapting to the environment we live in. I do not want to become a dinosaur quite yet, but they way some people behave on the planet, they are rapidly on their way to extinction or, at the very least, irrelevance.
As long as soybeans can be a pawn in this larger game, we probably should feel fortunate that at least it is one ag commodity that can bring world leaders to "Heel". Good boy. However, without Eucalyptus or a similar biomass, it would be quite difficult to keep the soybean boom going in Brazil. This is because of the lack of natural gas which seems to squirt out everywhere in the northern hemisphere.
It is forecast that by 2034, corn ethanol will be 50% of the Brazilian ethanol matrix. This was almost 0% in 2017. Corn ethanol will compete head to head with Sugarcane which has dominated the Brazilian culture since the 1500's.
In closing, while others in the world focus on killing one another for worthless land, I will continue to monitor how AI, automation, carbon negative ethanol, and technology will transform valuable land albeit in the USA or Brazil. I am happy to a part of the 1%, but it is going to more and more difficult to remain relevant in this shrinking market share we live in.
The Lexus and the Olive Tree are dead. We live in a Nvidia/Tesla/AI/automation world and if Elon is correct, in FIVE years, we won't recognize today. Part of me hopes he is wrong. My anxious self worries about if he is correct......
Kory
Link to podcast:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O4wBUysNe2k
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