Friday, January 13, 2017

Jan 13 blog update

On January 1, I put out a newsletter with my ideas as to soy prices in 2017.

So far, it is holding up well.

By Nov 17 soy holding above 9.80 this week, I have told clients
to expect higher prices.

I do not believe the Brazil soy crop is 104 or 105 mmt.

However, I do believe it to be above 100 mmt.

Until we get below 100 mmt, it kinda does not matter much.

NE Brazil must have rain in the coming days.
Even with rain, early planted soy losses are 30% in some regions.

The end of January and February look to be below normal rainfall.
This is of concern.

Argie is a mess. I think the crop is 50-52 mmt as of today.
Much smaller than what is being forecast.

The two events give us some hope in coming months for
sustained prices.

More info in upcoming newsletters and flash updates.

Thank you to all the VIP renewals in January.

I plan to attend a couple ag shows in the coming months.

As the President of New Holland said so nicely this week.
Ag business is the hen that lays the golden eggs in Brazil.
Things are really looking up as per ag machinery sales in
coming months.

Oldtimers in Brazil look at the ag economy as a leading indicator
to the overall economy. If the ag economy is strong, the overall
economy is right behind as per growth prospects.

Not a hotel room to be found in many locals for the ag shows.

I think this is a leading indicator that all ag sales teams will
be out in full force.

Dollar at 3.20 is not ideal. We would like to see 3.50:1,
but that will depend on politics here.

Sounds like interest rates will drop to 10% in 2017.
13% after this weeks cut.

Drop me a note for more info in services.

Links at top of page.

Kory




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